July PCE report keeps core inflation steady at 3.3%, supporting Fed's stance

0 (0 bps) rises to 87%1%

The Personal Consumption Expenditures report for July showed core PCE inflation steady at 3.3%, reinforcing the Fed's cautious approach and the market's low probability of rate cuts in 2026.

Federal Reserve releases minutes of discount rate meetings confirming steady policy

Minutes from the Federal Reserve Board's discount rate meetings on July 20 and 29, 2026, showed no changes to discount rates or indications of imminent rate cuts, supporting the market's expectation of no Fed rate cuts in 2026.

Federal Reserve releases minutes from July discount rate meetings

The minutes from the July 20 and 29 meetings clarified the Fed's distinct process for setting discount rates versus the federal funds rate, reinforcing the Fed's cautious approach to monetary policy and supporting the market's view of no imminent rate cuts.

July CPI report shows inflation easing to 3.3% year over year

The July Consumer Price Index data indicated a cooling inflation trend, which provided some disinflation signals but was not sufficient to prompt the Fed to cut rates, maintaining market expectations for no cuts in 2026.

US economy shows signs of strain with job losses and rising borrowing costs

0 (0 bps) dips to 85%1%

Reports of 23,000 jobs lost in July and rising mortgage rates to 6.69% increased economic uncertainty, reducing expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2026. These economic indicators supported the market's view that the Fed would maintain rates rather than cut them soon.

J.P. Morgan Global Research sees Fed hiking rates in December 2026 amid inflation concerns

0 (0 bps) rises to 86%1%

J.P. Morgan Global Research forecasted a potential rate hike in December 2026 due to reaccelerating inflation and the Fed's lack of a clear plan to address price pressures, which kept market expectations for rate cuts low during the analysis window.

Fed Holds Rates Steady in Early August Meeting, Emphasizes Data-Dependent Approach

The Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in its first 2026 meeting, signaling a cautious, data-dependent stance amid ongoing inflation above target and a stabilizing labor market. This reinforced market expectations for limited rate cuts in 2026, supporting the high probability of zero cuts.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term ending in May 2026 adds uncertainty to future rate decisions

0 (0 bps) jumps to 85%5%

Jerome Powell confirmed his upcoming exit as Fed Chair in May 2026, creating uncertainty about future monetary policy direction. This leadership transition contributed to market caution and the prevailing expectation of limited rate cuts in 2026.

Federal Reserve Board maintains interest rate on reserve balances at 3.65%

0 (0 bps) jumps to 85%5%

On July 29, 2026, the Federal Reserve Board voted unanimously to keep the interest rate on reserve balances steady at 3.65%, supporting the existing federal funds rate target range and signaling no imminent rate cuts.

Federal Reserve maintains federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%

0 (0 bps) jumps to 84%6%

The July implementation note reiterated the Federal Reserve's decision to keep the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.5% to 3.75%, with no rate cuts during the year to date.

Federal Reserve keeps rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid inflation and geopolitical risks

0 (0 bps) drops to 5%8%

The FOMC voted to maintain the federal funds rate target range, citing solid economic activity but elevated inflation and uncertainty due to the Middle East conflict. This decision further diminished expectations for rate cuts in 2026.

Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% with divided vote

0 (0 bps) rises to 86%1%

The July 28-29 FOMC meeting resulted in a 9-3 vote to hold rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%. The Fed cited solid economic activity and elevated inflation, with some dissenters favoring a rate hike. No rate cuts were made, reinforcing the Fed's cautious stance amid ongoing uncertainties.

Divided Fed holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% with dissenters favoring hike

0 (0 bps) jumps to 89%10%

The Fed voted 9-3 to keep rates unchanged, with three officials dissenting for a 25 basis point hike, signaling ongoing concerns about inflation but no rate cuts in 2026.

Fed keeps interest rate on reserve balances at 3.65%, no cuts in July

0 (0 bps) surges to 78%37%

The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate on reserve balances and the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, continuing the steady policy stance with no rate cuts in the July meeting.

Federal Reserve maintains rates at 3.5%-3.75% amid geopolitical uncertainty and inflation pressures

0 (0 bps) jumps to 89%9%

The FOMC voted 9-3 to keep rates steady, highlighting solid economic activity but elevated inflation and uncertainty due to Middle East conflict. Some members preferred a rate hike, reflecting ongoing internal policy divisions and cautious market expectations for cuts.

FOMC statement maintains federal funds rate target range at 3.5-3.75%

0 (0 bps) jumps to 89%11%

The Federal Open Market Committee voted to keep the federal funds rate target range steady, continuing its policy stance amid solid economic activity and elevated inflation. This confirmed no rate cuts through July 2026, reinforcing market expectations of zero cuts for the year.

FOMC maintains federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% with dissenters favoring hike

0 (0 bps) drops to 85%5%

At the July 28-29, 2026 meeting, the FOMC kept rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75%, with three dissenters favoring a 25 basis point hike. Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized restoring Fed credibility and maintaining the 2% inflation target, signaling a cautious approach and limiting expectations for cuts in 2026.

FOMC holds federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% for fifth consecutive meeting

0 (0 bps) rises to 85%3%

On July 29, 2026, the FOMC voted 9-3 to keep the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change. The Committee emphasized its commitment to price stability amid ongoing inflation concerns, with some dissenters favoring rate hikes instead of cuts.

FOMC votes 9-3 to hold federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75%

The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting, signaling a pause in rate cuts despite some dissenters favoring hikes, reflecting a cautious outlook on inflation and growth.

Federal Reserve holds rates at 3.50%-3.75% in July 2026, no cuts made

0 (0 bps) jumps to 90%10%

At the July meeting, the Fed maintained the target range citing tighter financial conditions and elevated inflation, with Chair Kevin Warsh reiterating the 2% inflation target. Market expectations shifted strongly toward zero cuts for the remainder of 2026.

Fed keeps rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% amid economic uncertainty

In the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, the Fed voted 9-3 to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, with dissenters preferring a 25 basis point hike. The Committee noted ongoing inflation above target and economic uncertainty, continuing its cautious stance without rate cuts.

Federal Reserve maintains interest rates at 3.65% on reserve balances

0 (0 bps) rises to 86%1%

The Federal Reserve Board voted unanimously to maintain the interest rate paid on reserve balances at 3.65%, effective July 30, 2026, continuing the policy of holding rates steady amid ongoing inflation concerns.

Federal Reserve maintains interest rate at 3.5%–3.75% in July implementation note

0 (0 bps) jumps to 84%6%

The Federal Reserve Board of Governors voted unanimously to maintain the interest rate paid on reserve balances at 3.65%, with the FOMC directing open market operations to keep the federal funds rate in the 3.5% to 3.75% target range, signaling no rate cuts in July 2026.

FOMC keeps rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% in July meeting

0 (0 bps) jumps to 85%6%

The Fed held the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.5%-3.75% in July 2026, continuing its cautious stance amid mixed economic signals and inflation concerns, with no immediate rate cuts implemented.

Federal Reserve holds interest rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% for fifth consecutive meeting

0 (0 bps) rises to 88%3%

The FOMC voted 9-3 to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% in July 2026, citing ongoing inflation concerns and the need to assess incoming data. This marked the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change, solidifying market expectations of no rate cuts in 2026.

Federal Reserve maintains rates and operational stance at July meeting

0 (0 bps) jumps to 88%7%

On July 29, 2026, the Federal Reserve Board voted unanimously to maintain the interest rate paid on reserve balances at 3.65%, continuing the target range of 3.50%-3.75%. The Fed also directed open market operations to maintain ample reserves, signaling no immediate rate cuts and reinforcing a cautious monetary policy stance.

Market pricing shows low probability for emergency Fed rate cuts in 2026

0 (0 bps) jumps to 86%7%

Market data from prediction markets and futures pricing indicated a very low probability of emergency rate cuts in 2026, reflecting confidence in the Fed's steady policy stance and economic conditions. This sentiment supported the dominance of the zero cuts outcome in the market.

Federal Reserve holds federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% for fifth consecutive meeting

0 (0 bps) dips to 79%1%

The FOMC voted 9-3 to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75% on July 29, 2026, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change. This reinforced market expectations of no rate cuts in 2026 and a cautious monetary policy stance.

Fed holds rates steady under new Chair Kevin Warsh, hawkish projections persist

0 (0 bps) rises to 84%4%

The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% in late July 2026, with the new Chair Kevin Warsh overseeing a hawkish Summary of Economic Projections showing a median year-end rate of 3.8%. Market pricing indicated very low probability of cuts, signaling skepticism about easing in 2026.

FOMC holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% for fifth consecutive meeting

The Federal Reserve's FOMC voted 9-3 to maintain the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75%, continuing its cautious approach amid solid economic growth and inflation concerns. Market expectations for rate cuts in 2026 remained low, with the Committee signaling no immediate easing.

Federal Reserve keeps interest rate on reserve balances at 3.65%, no rate cuts

0 (0 bps) drops to 85%5%

The Federal Reserve announced no changes to the interest rate on reserve balances and maintained the federal funds rate target range, confirming no rate cuts through late July 2026 and solidifying market consensus on zero cuts for the year.

Federal Reserve Board Issues Implementation Note Confirming Rate Hold at 3.65% on Reserve Balances

Following the July 29 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve Board unanimously approved maintaining the interest rate paid on reserve balances at 3.65%, effective July 30, 2026, supporting the policy stance of holding the federal funds rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75%.

FOMC meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 with rate decision pending

0 (0 bps) jumps to 85%8%

The Federal Reserve's July 28-29, 2026 meeting is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision on July 29. As of mid-2026, the Fed has held rates steady with market expectations for limited or no cuts in the near term, reflecting ongoing uncertainty and divided views among policymakers.

Fed holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid divided vote and inflation concerns

0 (0 bps) dips to 1%1%

On July 29, 2026, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% with a 9-3 vote split, signaling ongoing uncertainty about inflation and the economy. The divided vote kept the possibility of future hikes or cuts open but reinforced a cautious approach, limiting expectations for multiple cuts in 2026.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% for fifth consecutive meeting

0 (0 bps) jumps to 84%6%

In July 2026, the Fed again voted to keep rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, with the committee expecting to maintain higher rates for longer. The decision reflected ongoing inflation concerns and geopolitical uncertainty, with no rate cuts implemented.

Fed maintains rates at 3.5%-3.75% in July implementation note

0 (0 bps) jumps to 84%5%

On July 29, 2026, the Federal Reserve announced decisions to maintain the interest rate paid on reserve balances at 3.65 percent and to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged. This reinforced market expectations of no immediate rate cuts during mid-2026.

Fed holds rates steady but three dissenters favor immediate hike

At the July 29, 2026 meeting, the Fed voted 9-3 to keep rates unchanged, but three regional Fed presidents dissented, favoring a 25 bps hike. This indicated ongoing concerns about inflation and kept the possibility of future tightening on the table, dampening expectations for rate cuts.

Three Fed officials dissent, favoring rate hikes amid inflation concerns

0 (0 bps) rises to 84%1%

During the July 2026 FOMC meeting, three officials dissented, preferring a 25 basis point rate hike due to persistent inflation, highlighting internal Fed divisions but not resulting in immediate rate changes. This dissent underscored the cautious stance and contributed to market pricing favoring no cuts in 2026.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizes commitment to price stability after July meeting

0 (0 bps) rises to 83%3%

Chair Warsh reiterated the Fed's focus on achieving a 2% inflation target and stated that the July rate hold was just the beginning of the policy story, signaling no immediate cuts but maintaining vigilance on inflation data. This reinforced market expectations of no rate cuts in 2026.

FOMC votes to maintain federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% amid inflation concerns and economic growth

0 (0 bps) jumps to 86%8%

The Federal Open Market Committee decided to keep rates unchanged, citing solid economic expansion and elevated inflation partly due to energy prices. The decision, supported by a 9-3 vote, reinforced market expectations of minimal or no rate cuts in 2026, sustaining the high price for zero cuts.

Federal Reserve FOMC statement confirms no change in interest rates

0 (0 bps) jumps to 85%7%

The FOMC voted 9-3 to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5 to 3.75 percent, citing ongoing inflation above target and solid economic growth. This decision further solidified market pricing for zero rate cuts in 2026.

Federal Reserve issues implementation note maintaining interest rate on reserve balances

0 (0 bps) jumps to 85%7%

The Board of Governors unanimously voted to keep the interest rate on reserve balances at 3.65%, effective July 30, 2026, aligning with the FOMC's decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range. This operational decision supported the market's expectation of no rate cuts.

Fed again holds rates steady, maintains interest on reserves at 3.65%

0 (0 bps) jumps to 85%6%

In July, the Fed continued its steady policy stance, maintaining the target range and interest on reserves, reinforcing market expectations of no rate cuts in 2026.

Fed keeps rates steady at 3.5-3.75% in July implementation note

0 (0 bps) jumps to 85%7%

The Federal Reserve again maintained the interest rate on reserve balances and the federal funds rate target range, signaling no rate cuts as of late July 2026.

Fed maintains interest rate paid on reserve balances and target range at July meeting

0 (0 bps) jumps to 89%11%

At the July 29 meeting, the Federal Reserve again maintained the interest rate on reserve balances and the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, signaling no rate cuts in the near term. This solidified market expectations for zero cuts in 2026, reflected in the price reaching 89%.

FOMC statement confirms no rate change with dissenting votes for hike

The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-3 to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, with three members preferring a 25 basis point increase. This highlighted internal divisions but ultimately reinforced the market's view of no cuts in 2026.

Federal Reserve keeps interest rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% in July meeting

0 (0 bps) surges to 79%29%

The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, continuing its policy of ample reserves and signaling no immediate rate cuts. The decision reflected ongoing economic expansion and inflation concerns, with the Fed prepared to adjust policy as needed.

Federal Reserve Implementation Note confirms steady rates and operational policy

The Fed's implementation note reiterated the maintenance of the federal funds rate target range and operational tools to support this stance, confirming no rate cuts or hikes at the July meeting.

FOMC keeps rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% with dissenters favoring hikes

0 (0 bps) surges to 57%20%

The July 29 FOMC meeting resulted in a 9-3 vote to hold rates steady, with three regional Fed presidents dissenting in favor of a quarter-point hike. The statement reiterated inflation concerns and solid economic activity, signaling no imminent cuts.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in July meeting

0 (0 bps) jumps to 85%7%

The FOMC voted 9-3 to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change. This decision reflected ongoing concerns about inflation remaining above the 2% target and economic uncertainty, leading markets to price in no rate cuts for the remainder of 2026.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% with dissenting votes for hike

In July 2026, the Fed maintained the current rate range despite some dissenters favoring a hike due to elevated inflation, signaling a hawkish stance and reducing the likelihood of cuts in the near term.

Federal Reserve keeps rate unchanged in July meeting, signaling cautious approach

0 (0 bps) jumps to 85%8%

The Fed's decision to maintain the rate at 3.50%-3.75% in the July 28-29 meeting, with no immediate plans for cuts, reflected ongoing concerns about inflation and economic uncertainty. This contributed to the market's increased confidence in zero cuts for 2026 during this period.

Federal Reserve signals cautious approach with no immediate rate cuts

0 (0 bps) rises to 89%4%

The Federal Reserve maintained a cautious stance on monetary policy, indicating that no further rate cuts were imminent in the near term. This reassured markets that the Fed was balancing inflation and employment risks carefully, leading to increased market confidence in zero cuts for 2026.

Market prices peak at 85% for zero Fed rate cuts in 2026

0 (0 bps) jumps to 85%6%

By late July 2026, market prices for zero Fed rate cuts in 2026 reached a high of 85%, reflecting broad consensus that the Fed would not cut rates during the year, influenced by persistent inflation and cautious Fed communications.

President Trump renews calls for Federal Reserve to cut interest rates

1 (25 bps) drops to 10%6%

President Donald Trump publicly urged the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, calling for emergency action to reduce borrowing costs. Despite this political pressure, the Fed maintained its cautious stance, and markets reacted by lowering the probability of rate cuts in 2026.

Fed Beige Book reports moderate economic growth and persistent cost pressures

0 (0 bps) rises to 85%1%

The July 16 Beige Book showed moderate growth in most districts and ongoing price pressures from energy and raw materials, supporting the Fed's cautious stance and reducing market expectations for rate cuts in 2026.

Market pricing shows low probability of emergency Fed rate cuts in 2026

0 (0 bps) rises to 86%1%

Traders assigned a 94% probability to no emergency Federal Reserve rate cuts before 2027, reflecting solid economic expansion and easing inflation. This consensus reduced market expectations for multiple cuts in 2026 and supported the dominant zero cuts outcome.

Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook signals caution on rate cuts amid inflation risks

0 (0 bps) rises to 81%3%

In a speech on July 15, 2026, Fed Governor Lisa Cook emphasized ongoing inflation pressures driven by energy prices and AI-related cost increases, signaling a reluctance to cut rates soon. This reinforced market expectations for no rate cuts in 2026, contributing to the rise in the zero cuts outcome.

Fed Governor Lisa Cook signals inflation risks and readiness to act, lowering odds of near-term rate cuts

0 (0 bps) rises to 84%2%

Governor Cook's speech highlighted inflation risks and the Fed's preparedness to maintain or tighten policy rather than cut rates soon. This reinforced market sentiment against rate cuts in 2026, reflected in rising prices for the zero cuts outcome.

Fed Chairman Warsh Presents Monetary Policy Report to Senate

0 (0 bps) rises to 80%2%

Chairman Kevin Warsh presented the semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Senate, outlining the Fed's cautious outlook and the importance of monitoring economic conditions. This report reinforced the Fed's commitment to a data-driven approach and the likelihood of maintaining current rates in the near term.

June Consumer Price Index shows inflation at 3.5% year-over-year

The June CPI report indicated inflation at 3.5% year-over-year, below market forecasts but still above the Fed's 2% target. This persistent inflation contributed to the Fed's decision to hold rates steady and dampened expectations for rate cuts in 2026.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signals data-dependent approach, no forward guidance on rate cuts

0 (0 bps) jumps to 85%8%

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized reacting to incoming data rather than providing forward guidance, increasing uncertainty about rate cuts in 2026. This stance contributed to market pricing of minimal or no cuts for the remainder of the year.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizes inflation control and cautious policy stance

0 (0 bps) jumps to 84%6%

In his congressional testimony, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated the commitment to bringing inflation under control and announced the creation of task forces to review monetary policy factors, signaling a hawkish and data-dependent approach that dampened expectations for rate cuts in 2026.

Fed Governor Waller highlights inflation remains above target in July speech

0 (0 bps) rises to 80%1%

Governor Christopher J. Waller emphasized that inflation remains elevated above the FOMC's 2% objective despite some temporary factors, reinforcing the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts. This speech contributed to market expectations that rate cuts in 2026 were unlikely in the near term.

Fed signals only one rate cut ahead in 2026 amid inflation concerns

0 (0 bps) rises to 80%2%

Following the June and July meetings, the Fed signaled a cautious approach with only one quarter-point cut expected in 2026, reflecting ongoing inflation pressures and economic uncertainty. This stance caused market probabilities for zero cuts to rise and for a single 25 bps cut to decline.

Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson hints at possible modest rate cut in late 2026

1 (25 bps) rises to 16%2%

On July 10, 2026, Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson suggested a potential modest rate cut in the latter half of 2026, conditional on economic performance. This statement briefly increased market odds for a 25 bps cut, reflected in a temporary price rise for that outcome.

Fed maintains cautious stance on rate cuts amid leadership transition

With Jerome Powell's term ending in May and a new chair expected, the Fed remained data-dependent and cautious about further cuts, reinforcing market expectations of limited easing in 2026.

Federal Reserve announces leadership and objectives of task forces to advance monetary policy

0 (0 bps) rises to 80%2%

The Fed announced new task forces to review and improve monetary policy tools and communication, signaling a commitment to price stability and maximum employment. This reinforced the Fed's cautious and data-driven approach, further diminishing near-term expectations for rate cuts in 2026.

Federal Reserve announces task forces to advance monetary policy conduct

0 (0 bps) jumps to 84%5%

The Fed announced leadership and objectives of five task forces to improve monetary policy implementation, signaling ongoing commitment to price stability and employment goals amid economic uncertainty. This reflects a strategic focus rather than immediate rate changes.

Federal Reserve announces leadership and objectives of task forces to advance monetary policy

The Fed announced new task forces to improve monetary policy conduct, reflecting ongoing efforts to adapt policy tools amid economic uncertainty. This organizational move underscored the Fed's commitment to price stability and maximum employment but did not signal immediate rate changes.

Fed minutes reveal split among officials but unanimous decision to hold rates steady

The minutes from the June 16-17 FOMC meeting showed internal debate among policymakers about future rate moves but confirmed unanimous agreement to keep rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, reinforcing the market's view of limited rate cuts in 2026.

Fed minutes reveal split views but no rate cuts in mid-2026

Minutes from the June 2026 FOMC meeting showed officials divided on inflation outlook and interest rate direction, with some favoring cuts and others hikes, but the committee unanimously kept rates steady. The removal of easing bias and focus on inflation control further reduced market expectations for rate cuts in 2026.

Fed minutes reveal split on rates, no clear bias toward cuts in 2026

The July 2026 release of Fed meeting minutes showed officials divided on the path of interest rates, with no consensus on cuts. This reinforced market views that multiple rate cuts in 2026 were unlikely, supporting the high probability of zero cuts.

Fed funds rate remains at 3.75%, market prices zero cuts for remainder of 2026

0 (0 bps) rises to 84%4%

By early July 2026, the federal funds rate was last recorded at 3.75%, with market pricing strongly favoring zero rate cuts for the rest of the year. Fed officials' projections and statements indicated a cautious approach, with some officials even expecting rate hikes, making multiple cuts unlikely in 2026.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizes cautious approach amid inflation

0 (0 bps) rises to 80%2%

In public statements around early July, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh highlighted the need to see inflation trends stabilize before considering rate cuts, reinforcing market expectations for a limited number of cuts in 2026 and supporting the high probability of zero cuts.

FOMC holds federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in June 2026 meeting

0 (0 bps) rises to 80%2%

The Federal Reserve held rates steady at the June 16-17 meeting, emphasizing data-driven decisions and signaling no immediate cuts. This reinforced market expectations for limited easing in 2026 and contributed to the high probability of zero cuts.

Fed officials split on future rate moves, market bets on no cuts in 2026

Following the June meeting, reports highlighted the division among Fed officials on whether to hike or cut rates. This uncertainty led markets to price in a high probability of no rate cuts in 2026, reflecting diminished expectations for easing.

Federal Reserve signals potential policy shift amid rising inflation and energy prices

In late June 2026, the Fed signaled a possible shift in monetary policy due to climbing inflation and energy prices, indicating readiness to adjust the federal funds rate trajectory. This increased market uncertainty about rate cuts, pushing expectations toward no cuts or even hikes in 2026.

Federal Reserve signals possible rate hike later in 2026 amid inflation pressures

Following the June meeting, the Federal Reserve signaled a shift in monetary policy outlook with growing support among officials for potential rate hikes later in 2026 due to persistent inflation and strong labor market data. This marked a reversal from earlier expectations of rate cuts, further diminishing the likelihood of cuts in 2026.

Fed reaffirms steady rates at 3.5%-3.75%, no cuts in sight

Following the June meeting, the Fed's implementation note confirmed maintaining the interest rate paid on reserve balances and the federal funds rate target range. This reinforced market consensus that no rate cuts would occur in 2026.

Federal Reserve cuts federal funds rate by 0.25% to 3.25-3.50%

3 (75 bps) plunges to 0%84%

The FOMC lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, bringing the rate to 3.25-3.50%, marking the third rate cut of 2026.

Federal Reserve maintains rates at 3.50%-3.75% with unanimous vote

The Fed held rates steady at the June 17, 2026 meeting, emphasizing a balance between supporting economic growth and controlling inflation. The unanimous decision indicated a cautious stance, reducing expectations for rate cuts in the near term.

Fed maintains interest rate on reserve balances at 3.65%, no rate cuts

0 (0 bps) jumps to 41%12%

The Federal Reserve Board voted unanimously to keep the interest rate on reserve balances steady, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, signaling no rate cuts at the June meeting.

FOMC keeps federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid inflation concerns

0 (0 bps) dips to 0%4%

The June 17, 2026 FOMC meeting resulted in a unanimous decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%. The Committee balanced supporting economic growth with tackling inflation, signaling no immediate rate cuts despite ongoing uncertainties.

Fed holds rates at 3.50%-3.75% in June 2026, dot plot signals hawkish shift

The Federal Reserve kept rates steady in June 2026 but the Summary of Economic Projections showed a median expectation for rates to end the year higher, signaling a hawkish shift and diminishing expectations for rate cuts in 2026.

FOMC Unanimously Maintains Federal Funds Rate at 3.50%–3.75%

The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to keep the federal funds rate steady, balancing economic growth and inflation concerns amid geopolitical tensions and supply chain uncertainties. The decision underscored the Fed's cautious approach to monetary policy in mid-2026.

FOMC keeps rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, maintains interest on reserve balances

0 (0 bps) jumps to 31%10%

In June, the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady and maintained the interest rate paid on reserve balances at 3.65%, signaling continued caution and no immediate plans for rate cuts despite some economic growth and inflation pressures.

Federal Reserve maintains federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75% amid balanced economic outlook

0 (0 bps) drops to 18%10%

The FOMC unanimously decided to keep the federal funds rate target range steady, balancing support for economic growth with inflation concerns. Ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply chain issues were noted as factors influencing future decisions.

Federal Reserve keeps rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid inflation concerns

0 (0 bps) dips to 0%1%

The FOMC unanimously voted to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75% in June, reaffirming the policy of maintaining ample reserves. The statement removed language suggesting an easing bias, signaling a more cautious approach given inflation risks and economic conditions.

Federal Reserve holds federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% for fifth consecutive meeting

The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid a stronger economic outlook and inflation concerns, signaling a pause in rate cuts and reducing expectations for multiple cuts in 2026.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% amid ongoing inflation concerns

0 (0 bps) jumps to 65%9%

The Fed continued its policy of holding rates steady at the June meeting, citing elevated inflation and a stable labor market. The decision reflected a cautious stance with no immediate rate cuts, despite some market speculation for easing later in the year.

Federal Reserve maintains interest rates at 3.5%-3.75% amid solid economic activity

0 (0 bps) jumps to 84%5%

At the June 2026 meeting, the Fed kept rates steady, noting solid economic growth despite uncertainty from Middle East conflicts and elevated inflation. The unanimous vote reflected a continued cautious approach without rate cuts.

Kevin Warsh Confirmed as New Federal Reserve Chair, Signaling Potential Policy Shift

0 (0 bps) plunges to 0%50%

President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, and his confirmation raised expectations of a hawkish stance on monetary policy, contributing to market skepticism about rate cuts in 2026 and reinforcing the Fed's higher-for-longer messaging.

Federal Reserve Holds Rates at 3.5%-3.75%, Signals Hawkish Outlook

0 (0 bps) plunges to 0%39%

The FOMC unanimously voted to maintain the federal funds rate target range, but the updated dot plot showed a median projection for rates to end 2026 higher than current levels, signaling fewer or no rate cuts. This hawkish pivot caused market prices to shift strongly toward zero cuts in 2026.

FOMC Unanimously Maintains Rates at 3.5%–3.75%, Signals Higher-for-Longer Stance

0 (0 bps) jumps to 70%13%

In June 2026, the Federal Reserve kept rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75% with unanimous support, while raising inflation forecasts and signaling a hawkish stance. The updated dot plot showed expectations for rates to remain elevated, reducing market expectations for cuts in 2026.

FOMC minutes show unanimous vote to maintain rates, no cuts yet in mid-2026

0 (0 bps) jumps to 69%13%

The June FOMC meeting minutes confirmed the Committee's unanimous decision to keep the federal funds rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75%, with no rate cuts implemented. This reinforced the market view that cuts in 2026 were unlikely or would be delayed, further increasing the zero cuts probability.

Fed maintains rates at 3.5%-3.75% with unanimous vote

At the June 16-17 meeting, the Federal Reserve unanimously voted to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, continuing its cautious approach amid solid economic activity and elevated inflation. No rate cuts were announced, aligning with market expectations for limited easing in 2026.

Federal Reserve Implementation Note confirms no rate change and operational stance

The Fed's implementation note confirmed maintaining the interest rate paid on reserve balances and open market operations to keep the federal funds rate in the 3.50%–3.75% range, reinforcing the no-cut stance mid-year.

FOMC maintains rates at 3.5%–3.75% amid elevated inflation and economic uncertainty

1 (25 bps) drops to 13%8%

The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate steady, emphasizing data dependency and signaling that future rate cuts might occur later in the year. The decision reflected ongoing concerns about inflation and labor market conditions.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady in June under new Chair Kevin Warsh

1 (25 bps) rises to 14%1%

The Fed unanimously held rates at 3.50-3.75% in June 2026, with updated projections slightly more hawkish but still indicating low probability of multiple cuts, supporting the market's single-cut consensus.

FOMC again holds rates steady, maintaining current policy stance

0 (0 bps) rises to 80%3%

The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate paid on reserve balances and the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5 to 3.75 percent. This continued pause further reduced market expectations for rate cuts in 2026.

FOMC maintains rates at 3.5%-3.75%, signals no immediate cuts

The Federal Reserve continued to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75%, reaffirming its policy stance amid persistent inflation and a strong labor market. Market pricing began to reflect expectations of a possible rate hike later in 2026 rather than cuts, indicating a shift in outlook.

Fed Chair Warsh emphasizes steady policy and inflation goal at June press conference

0 (0 bps) surges to 79%29%

Chairman Warsh underscored the Fed's commitment to its 2% inflation target and steady monetary policy during the June 2026 press conference, reinforcing market expectations of no rate cuts for the remainder of the year.

Fed keeps rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, projects higher year-end rates

0 (0 bps) rises to 84%4%

The Federal Reserve held rates steady but raised year-end rate projections, signaling a hawkish stance amid sticky inflation. Market pricing shifted to expect no cuts and even potential hikes, reducing the likelihood of rate cuts in 2026 to near zero.

FOMC maintains federal funds rate at 3.5-3.75%, inflation remains elevated

0 (0 bps) rises to 78%1%

The Committee reaffirmed its policy of maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate, citing solid economic activity and elevated inflation. This reinforced the market view that no rate cuts would occur in 2026.

Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% amid geopolitical tensions

The FOMC unanimously voted to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, balancing support for economic growth with inflation control. Ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply chain issues contributed to the cautious stance, with no rate cuts implemented.

Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% amid balanced economic outlook

At the June meeting, the FOMC unanimously voted to maintain the federal funds rate target range, balancing support for economic growth with inflation concerns. The statement emphasized financial stability and managing risks, with no rate cuts implemented, reflecting ongoing caution in monetary policy.

Fed holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% with possible hike signaled

0 (0 bps) surges to 89%86%

In Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed chair, the FOMC kept rates unchanged but signaled a potential rate hike later in 2026, reducing expectations for rate cuts and reinforcing a hawkish stance.

Federal Reserve Maintains Interest Rate at 3.65% on Reserve Balances in June Implementation Note

0 (0 bps) rises to 80%3%

The Fed's Board of Governors voted unanimously to keep the interest rate on reserve balances steady at 3.65%, reflecting a continued pause in rate changes during mid-2026 amid cautious economic assessment.

Federal Reserve Reaffirms Steady Rates in Unanimous Vote

The FOMC voted 12-0 to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75%, pointing to solid economic growth and elevated inflation, which pushed the probability of zero cuts in 2026 to near-certainty.

Fed holds rates steady in Kevin Warsh's first meeting as chairman

0 (0 bps) jumps to 81%12%

In Chairman Kevin Warsh's debut meeting, the Fed kept rates unchanged and signaled a hawkish shift, with economic projections pointing to a potential rate hike rather than cuts.

FOMC unanimously keeps rates steady at 3.5-3.75%, signals no cuts in 2026

0 (0 bps) surges to 78%39%

The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5 to 3.75 percent, signaling continued pause in rate changes for 2026. This decision solidified market expectations of zero rate cuts for the year, reflected in the high price for the 0 cuts outcome.

Market expectations shift towards no rate cuts in 2026 after Fed signals caution

0 (0 bps) jumps to 78%10%

By mid-2026, market probabilities for zero rate cuts in 2026 rose significantly, reflecting the Fed's cautious stance and economic uncertainty, making multiple cuts unlikely within the year.

FOMC unanimously holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, balancing growth and inflation

The Federal Open Market Committee made a unanimous decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, reflecting a balance between supporting economic growth and tackling inflation. The statement highlighted ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties influencing future policy decisions.

Federal Reserve cuts rates by modest 25 basis points, signals further cuts over next two years

1 (25 bps) drops to 13%9%

The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points to 4.0%-4.25% citing worsening employment but still elevated inflation. The median projections included one more rate cut in 2026 and 2027, reinforcing market expectations for a single cut in 2026 and reducing probabilities for multiple cuts.

Fed Holds Rates Steady and Signals Possible Rate Hike Under New Chair Kevin Warsh

0 (0 bps) jumps to 77%6%

In Kevin Warsh's first meeting as chairman, the Fed kept rates steady but shifted its outlook toward potential rate hikes, causing the '0 cuts' option to surge to 71%.

Fed signals only one rate cut in 2026 amid economic uncertainty and inflation concerns

0 (0 bps) jumps to 80%10%

Following the June FOMC meeting, Fed projections indicated just one 25 bps rate cut for 2026, with inflation progress slower than expected and geopolitical risks influencing the cautious outlook. Market probabilities shifted strongly toward no cuts for the remainder of the year.

FOMC press conference with Chairman Warsh emphasizes steady policy

0 (0 bps) surges to 81%19%

At the June 17 press conference, Chairman Warsh underscored the Federal Reserve's commitment to its 2 percent inflation objective and steady monetary policy, reinforcing market expectations of no rate cuts in 2026.

Fed holds rates steady, signals possible hike under new Chair Warsh

0 (0 bps) rises to 79%2%

In the first FOMC meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh, the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% and removed language suggesting easing bias. Projections shifted toward possible rate hikes later in 2026, further diminishing expectations for cuts this year.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% under new Chair Kevin Warsh

0 (0 bps) rises to 78%1%

In its June 2026 meeting, the Fed, now led by Chair Kevin Warsh, maintained the federal funds rate target range, signaling a cautious approach amid persistent inflation and economic uncertainty, which kept market expectations for rate cuts low.

Fed keeps interest rates unchanged for fourth consecutive meeting

0 (0 bps) jumps to 80%10%

The Federal Reserve held the benchmark rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% under new Chair Kevin Warsh, with the dot plot showing most members projecting zero or fewer cuts in 2026.

Fed holds rates steady as Warsh signals rate hikes ahead

0 (0 bps) drops to 0%13%

The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth consecutive meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, signaling a hawkish pivot and fewer expected rate cuts in 2026.

FOMC holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid solid economic growth and inflation concerns

0 (0 bps) surges to 28%18%

At the June 17 meeting, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range, citing solid economic activity despite elevated inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. The unanimous vote underscored the Fed's cautious approach and delayed rate cuts.

Fed keeps rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, signals possible hikes

0 (0 bps) rises to 80%3%

At the June 16-17 meeting, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75%, citing solid economic activity and elevated inflation. The statement removed previous language suggesting rate cuts, instead indicating possible rate hikes later in the year, which further reduced market expectations for cuts in 2026.

Federal Reserve keeps federal funds rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75% amid economic balance

The FOMC unanimously voted to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, balancing support for economic growth with inflation concerns. The statement highlighted ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply chain risks but did not indicate any rate cuts, reinforcing the market's view of no cuts in 2026 so far.

FOMC holds federal funds rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75% in June meeting

0 (0 bps) jumps to 78%8%

The Federal Open Market Committee decided unanimously to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate, continuing the steady policy stance with no rate cuts in 2026.

Federal Reserve expected to hold rates steady at June 2026 FOMC meeting

0 (0 bps) rises to 7%1%

The Fed is widely expected to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in June 2026, continuing its cautious stance amid ongoing inflation concerns and geopolitical uncertainty. Market pricing reflects a strong probability of no rate cuts in 2026.

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh presides over first FOMC meeting, rates held steady

At the June 2026 meeting, the Federal Reserve, under newly sworn-in Chair Kevin Warsh, maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%. The Committee reiterated its data-dependent approach amid ongoing inflation above target and a cautious economic outlook. Market expectations remained for limited or no rate cuts in 2026.

Fed holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid mixed economic signals

0 (0 bps) jumps to 81%12%

At the June 2026 meeting, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, reflecting ongoing uncertainty and internal divisions about the timing and extent of future rate cuts. This reinforced market expectations of limited cuts in 2026, mostly after mid-year.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid cautious outlook

At the June 2026 FOMC meeting, the Fed again held rates steady, signaling a cautious approach given ongoing inflation and labor market conditions. Market expectations for rate cuts in 2026 diminished further, with the Fed emphasizing data dependency for future policy moves.

Economists forecast two Fed rate cuts in 2026, likely starting June or later

2 (50 bps) rises to 6%3%

Most economists predicted the Fed would cut rates twice in 2026, with the first cut expected at the June meeting or later, reflecting cautious optimism about economic growth and inflation trends.

Most economists forecast two Fed rate cuts in 2026, likely starting in June or later

2 (50 bps) rises to 9%2%

Economic forecasts and market commentary suggested that the Fed might cut rates twice in 2026, with the first cut possibly at the June meeting. This view influenced market pricing, although the Fed had not yet acted on these expectations.

Fed officials project only one 25 basis point rate cut in 2026 amid economic uncertainty

1 (25 bps) jumps to 19%11%

Fed projections released in mid-2026 indicated a median forecast of just one 25 basis point cut in 2026, reflecting slower progress on inflation and economic uncertainties including geopolitical risks. This led markets to sharply reduce expectations for multiple cuts in 2026.

New York Fed President signals flexibility on future rate cuts amid inflation moderation hopes

John Williams indicated that if inflation moderates as expected, additional rate cuts could be appropriate later in 2026, keeping the outlook open despite geopolitical and energy price uncertainties. This statement maintained market attention on inflation data as key to Fed policy direction.

Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 bps to 2.75-3.00%

3 (75 bps) plunges to 1%37%

The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 2.75-3.00%, continuing its rate-cutting cycle. This was the third cut in 2026, bringing the total to 75 bps.

Federal Reserve projects only one rate cut in 2026 amid economic uncertainty

The Fed's Summary of Economic Projections indicated a median forecast of just one 25 basis point rate cut in 2026, reflecting slower progress on inflation and economic uncertainty, including geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict. This tempered market expectations for multiple cuts.

Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points

The Fed reduced the federal funds rate by 25 bps to 3.25%-3.50%, marking the fourth consecutive reduction, with one more cut projected for 2026.

Federal Reserve projects only one rate cut in 2026 amid economic uncertainty

0 (0 bps) surges to 78%40%

In June 2026, the Fed's economic projections indicated only one 25 basis point cut for the remainder of the year, reflecting slower progress on inflation and uncertainty from geopolitical risks. This led markets to sharply reduce expectations for multiple cuts, favoring zero cuts by mid-year.

US consumer inflation vaults above 4% in May amid Middle East conflict

0 (0 bps) dips to 77%3%

Surging energy prices pushed consumer inflation to its fastest pace in three years, cementing expectations that the Fed would keep interest rates unchanged.

Fed holds rates steady amid Iran conflict and inflation uncertainty

0 (0 bps) jumps to 68%12%

In mid-2026, the Fed maintained rates at 3.5%-3.75% citing uncertainty from the Iran war's economic impact and slower-than-expected inflation progress. The median projection remained at one 25 bps cut for 2026, but market expectations shifted toward fewer cuts, reflecting increased caution.

Philadelphia Fed President signals potential modest rate cut in late 2026

1 (25 bps) jumps to 22%5%

Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson indicated a conditional possibility of a modest additional rate cut in the second half of 2026, depending on economic performance. This statement influenced market speculation about a single cut rather than multiple cuts.

Fed projects only one rate cut in 2026 amid economic uncertainty

0 (0 bps) jumps to 79%12%

Fed Chair Powell stated that progress on inflation will be slower than hoped, and the median projection showed just one 25 bps cut in 2026. Market expectations for cuts pulled back sharply, with probabilities for no cuts rising significantly after this announcement.

President Trump urges Fed not to raise rates, calls for cuts

President Donald Trump publicly stated that the Federal Reserve would be wrong to raise interest rates and called for rate cuts as new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh prepared for his first meeting. Despite Trump's calls, market and Fed signals indicated a low probability of cuts in 2026 due to inflation and economic conditions.

Improved labor market data reduces likelihood of Fed rate cuts in 2026

0 (0 bps) surges to 72%28%

Strong payroll employment data and persistent inflation concerns led to a hawkish tilt in Fed policy expectations, diminishing the probability of rate cuts in 2026 and pushing market prices toward zero cuts.

Goldman Sachs Revises Forecast, Expects No Fed Rate Cuts in 2026

0 (0 bps) jumps to 79%10%

On June 7, 2026, Goldman Sachs economists announced they no longer expect any Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 due to a stronger-than-expected labor market, pushing expected cuts to 2027. This announcement sharply reduced market expectations for rate cuts in 2026.

Goldman Sachs no longer expects Fed rate cuts in 2026 due to strong labor market

0 (0 bps) jumps to 79%9%

On June 7, 2026, Goldman Sachs economists revised their outlook, no longer expecting any Fed rate cuts in 2026, citing a stronger-than-expected labor market. This further solidified market pricing for zero cuts in 2026.

Goldman Sachs drops Fed rate cut forecast for 2026 on strong jobs data

0 (0 bps) jumps to 78%8%

Goldman Sachs economists pushed back their rate cut forecasts to 2027, predicting no rate cuts at all in 2026 due to a stronger-than-expected labor market.

Goldman Sachs Economists Abandon Forecast for 2026 Fed Rate Cuts

0 (0 bps) jumps to 77%9%

Following a stronger-than-expected labor market report, Goldman Sachs economists announced they no longer expect any Fed rate cuts in 2026, pushing their forecast to 2027.

Goldman Sachs Economists No Longer Expect Any Fed Rate Cuts in 2026

0 (0 bps) jumps to 79%10%

Goldman Sachs revised its forecast to project zero rate cuts in 2026 due to a stronger-than-expected labor market, pushing the probability of the '0 (0 bps)' outcome to near-certainty.

Goldman Sachs revises forecast, no Fed rate cuts expected in 2026 due to strong labor market

Goldman Sachs economists pushed back expectations for Fed rate cuts to 2027, citing a stronger-than-expected labor market and persistent inflation. This revision reflects a broader market consensus that rate cuts in 2026 are unlikely, with the Fed maintaining a cautious stance.

US adds 172,000 jobs in May, signaling labor market strength

The US labor market added 172,000 jobs in May 2026, exceeding expectations and indicating resilience. Strong job growth reduces pressure on the Fed to cut rates, supporting a stable or hawkish monetary policy stance despite inflation concerns.

Federal Reserve projects only one rate cut in 2026 amid economic uncertainty

0 (0 bps) jumps to 79%9%

In early June 2026, the Fed's economic projections indicated only one 25 bps cut for the rest of the year, with inflation progress slower than hoped and geopolitical risks weighing. This led markets to sharply reduce odds of multiple cuts, pushing the zero cuts option price to near 80%.

Federal Reserve projects only one rate cut in 2026 amid economic uncertainty

1 (25 bps) drops to 3%7%

In June 2026, the Fed's economic projections indicated only one 25 basis point cut for the remainder of the year, reflecting slower progress on inflation and uncertainty from geopolitical risks like the Iran war. This led markets to sharply reduce expectations for multiple cuts in 2026.

Fed projects only one rate cut in 2026 amid economic uncertainty and inflation concerns

0 (0 bps) surges to 79%25%

In early June 2026, the Fed's summary of economic projections indicated a median forecast of just one 25 basis point cut for the year, reflecting slower-than-expected inflation progress and geopolitical uncertainties. Market expectations shifted strongly toward zero or one cut, reducing probabilities for multiple cuts.

Federal Reserve releases minutes on discount rate meeting

On May 26, 2026, the Federal Reserve released minutes from its April 20 and 29 meetings regarding discount rates, providing transparency on lending rates to depository institutions. While not directly about federal funds rate cuts, these minutes contributed to market understanding of monetary policy stance.

Federal Reserve releases minutes from April discount rate meetings, signaling steady policy

0 (0 bps) rises to 69%1%

The Federal Reserve Board released minutes from April meetings reviewing discount rates, distinct from FOMC rate decisions, indicating no immediate changes to monetary policy. This supported market expectations of a steady rate environment in mid-2026.

Federal Reserve releases minutes of discount rate meeting with no indication of rate cuts

0 (0 bps) jumps to 67%10%

The Federal Reserve Board released minutes from April meetings on discount rates, showing no moves toward cutting rates. This absence of easing signals contributed to market confidence that no rate cuts would occur in 2026.

Kevin Warsh sworn in as Federal Reserve Chair, signaling hawkish policy stance

Kevin Warsh, known for his hawkish views on inflation and monetary policy, was sworn in as Fed Chair in May 2026. His leadership reinforced market expectations of limited or no rate cuts in 2026, with some officials projecting possible rate hikes due to persistent inflation and economic resilience.

Kevin Warsh confirmed as new Federal Reserve Chair

0 (0 bps) surges to 56%18%

Kevin Warsh was confirmed by the Senate as the new Fed Chair in May 2026, succeeding Jerome Powell. His leadership marked a shift in communication style and policy outlook, with indications of a more hawkish stance and less forward guidance, which influenced market expectations away from rate cuts in 2026.

Goldman Sachs delays expected Fed rate cuts to late 2026 and 2027

0 (0 bps) jumps to 70%14%

Goldman Sachs revised its forecast, no longer expecting any Fed rate cuts in 2026 due to a stronger labor market and elevated inflation risks, pushing expected cuts to December 2026 and beyond. This influenced market pricing toward zero cuts in 2026.

BofA and Goldman Sachs push back Fed rate-cut expectations citing inflation and labor market strength

Major brokerages revised their forecasts, delaying expected Fed rate cuts to late 2026 or 2027 due to elevated inflation from energy prices and a strong labor market, influencing market pricing for cuts.

BofA and Goldman Sachs push back Fed rate-cut expectations citing inflation risks

0 (0 bps) drops to 7%6%

Major brokerages revised their forecasts, delaying expected Fed rate cuts to late 2026 or beyond due to elevated inflation and strong labor market data, which dampened market expectations for multiple cuts in 2026.

Federal Reserve rate cut hopes dim as inflation expectations surge

0 (0 bps) rises to 66%3%

A key market indicator of long-term inflation expectations surged to a three-year high, fueled by the economic impacts of the US-Israeli war with Iran, dampening rate cut prospects.

Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 50 basis points to 4.25%-4.50% range

2 (50 bps) drops to 3%9%

In May 2026, the Federal Reserve made a significant policy pivot by cutting interest rates by 50 basis points, the first reduction since 2023, to support a softening labor market and continued progress toward inflation goals. This move was widely seen as a shift toward easing monetary policy amid slowing job gains and rising unemployment.

Fed rate cut hopes diminish amid surging inflation and geopolitical tensions

0 (0 bps) rises to 14%3%

Rising inflation expectations and geopolitical risks, including the US-Israeli war with Iran, led to increased concerns about persistent price pressures, reducing market optimism for rate cuts in 2026.

Rising inflation and geopolitical tensions dim hopes for Fed rate cuts in 2026

0 (0 bps) surges to 80%23%

By May 2026, surging inflation expectations and supply chain pressures linked to the Iran war led to increased skepticism about Fed rate cuts. Internal Fed dissent against easing and rising commodity prices pushed markets to sharply lower the probability of any cuts in 2026.

Rate cut hopes dim amid surging inflation and geopolitical tensions

0 (0 bps) surges to 70%54%

Rising inflation expectations and the impact of the US-Israeli war with Iran led to increased concerns about persistent price pressures. Fed officials showed internal dissent against easing bias, reducing market expectations for rate cuts in 2026.

Federal Reserve Rate Cut Hopes Dim as Inflation Expectations Surge to Three-Year High

0 (0 bps) jumps to 70%14%

Long-term inflation expectations surged due to supply chain disruptions from the US-Israeli war with Iran, prompting three Fed officials to publicly argue that a rate hike is increasingly probable.

Federal Reserve signals cautious approach, holds rates steady amid economic resilience

0 (0 bps) drops to 67%5%

Following the May 2026 FOMC meeting, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, emphasizing a data-dependent approach amid solid economic growth and persistent inflation. This reinforced market expectations that further rate cuts in 2026 were unlikely in the near term.

Federal Reserve maintains rates amid inflation and economic resilience in May 2026

0 (0 bps) surges to 57%22%

The Fed's May meeting kept rates steady, emphasizing adaptive policy guided by incoming data amid inflation pressures and solid economic activity. This reinforced market views of limited rate cuts in 2026.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady amid divided FOMC vote with four dissents

0 (0 bps) jumps to 66%10%

At the May 2026 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, marking the most contested vote since 1992 with four dissenting members. Chair Powell indicated the committee was well positioned and emphasized patience, signaling that rate cuts were not imminent and that hikes were as likely as cuts going forward.

FOMC holds rates steady amid most contested vote since 1992 with four dissents

The May meeting saw the Fed hold rates at 3.5%-3.75%, but with four dissenting votes including Governor Miran favoring cuts. Chair Powell emphasized the need to see progress on energy shocks and tariffs before cutting, signaling a balanced but cautious approach.

Fed holds rates steady amid divided vote with four dissents

0 (0 bps) jumps to 69%13%

At the May 2026 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%. The meeting was the most contested since 1992, with four dissenting votes including one in favor of a cut. Chair Powell indicated the committee was well positioned and emphasized the need to see progress on inflation and energy shocks before considering cuts.

Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 50 basis points, signaling economic pivot

2 (50 bps) drops to 3%5%

The Fed made a significant half-point rate cut in May 2026, its first since 2023, shifting focus from fighting inflation to supporting a softening labor market. This move increased market expectations for multiple cuts in 2026, impacting borrowing costs and financial markets.

Fed holds rates steady at May 2026 meeting with four dissenters

The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in May 2026, with four dissenting votes including Governor Stephen Miran who favored a cut. Chair Powell emphasized the need to see the effects of energy shocks and tariffs before considering rate reductions, reflecting ongoing uncertainty and a cautious stance.

FOMC holds rates steady in April 2026 amid elevated inflation and economic uncertainty

The Federal Reserve voted 8-4 to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, the most divided FOMC decision since 1992. Inflation remained elevated partly due to global energy price increases, and uncertainty from Middle East developments increased. The hold signaled ongoing caution and internal disagreement about future rate cuts.

FOMC minutes confirm no change in federal funds rate target range

0 (0 bps) jumps to 30%11%

Minutes from the April FOMC meeting showed unanimous votes to maintain the federal funds rate target range, with some dissenters preferring a cut but no action taken, reinforcing market expectations of no cuts in 2026 so far.

FOMC maintains rates amid elevated inflation and economic uncertainty

The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%, citing solid economic activity but elevated inflation and uncertainty from geopolitical tensions. Several members dissented, some favoring a rate cut or an easing bias, but the Committee overall remained cautious, reducing expectations for cuts in the near term.

FOMC minutes reveal delayed expectations for rate cuts to late 2026

0 (0 bps) surges to 41%25%

Minutes from the April 2026 FOMC meeting indicated that while market participants expected two 25 bps rate cuts, these were anticipated to occur later in the year, reflecting a more cautious Fed outlook amid inflation and economic uncertainties.

FOMC minutes reveal no consensus for rate cuts in 2026

0 (0 bps) jumps to 38%8%

Minutes from the April 2026 FOMC meeting showed that while some members expected rate reductions later in the year, the majority preferred to maintain current rates, reflecting uncertainty and caution about economic conditions.

Federal Reserve meeting expected to hold rates amid inflation and geopolitical risks

Ahead of the April 28-29, 2026 meeting, markets widely expected the Fed to keep rates steady due to inflation near 4.7% and oil price pressures from Iran tensions. This cautious stance reinforced market views that rate cuts in 2026 would be limited or delayed.

Unusually divided Federal Reserve holds rates steady as four members dissent

0 (0 bps) surges to 58%24%

The Fed kept its benchmark rate unchanged for the third consecutive meeting, but the decision saw a rare four dissents, with some members objecting to the inclusion of an easing bias in the statement.

FOMC statement maintains federal funds rate, signals cautious outlook

0 (0 bps) jumps to 40%9%

On April 29, 2026, the FOMC decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, noting economic activity expanding at a solid pace but acknowledging uncertainty from geopolitical developments. Market expectations for rate cuts in 2026 remained low following this statement.

Federal Reserve implements policy to maintain federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%

0 (0 bps) drops to 31%9%

Following the April FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve directed the Open Market Desk to undertake operations to maintain the federal funds rate target range, reinforcing the no-cut stance and supporting market pricing of zero rate cuts in 2026.

FOMC meeting results show no rate change, dissent among policymakers

0 (0 bps) surges to 77%39%

The April 29, 2026 FOMC meeting resulted in a decision to keep rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, with four dissenters favoring cuts. The minutes indicated market expectations for rate cuts shifted later in the year, with no immediate easing, reflecting ongoing inflation and geopolitical uncertainties.

Four Fed policymakers dissent as central bank pauses rates again

0 (0 bps) surges to 57%19%

The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, but a surprise development saw four policymakers dissent, signaling deep internal divisions and a shift toward a more hawkish stance.

FOMC minutes reveal cautious tone, delay in expected rate cuts

1 (25 bps) dips to 24%3%

The April 2026 FOMC minutes showed officials expected rate cuts later in the year, but delayed from earlier projections, reflecting uncertainty and a cautious approach amid persistent inflation.

FOMC April 2026 meeting ends with unanimous vote to hold rates steady

0 (0 bps) surges to 41%16%

The Fed voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in April 2026, with four dissenters opposing an easing bias. The statement highlighted inflation risks and geopolitical uncertainty, reinforcing market pricing of zero cuts in 2026.

Federal Reserve keeps federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% in April meeting

On April 28-29, 2026, the Federal Reserve again maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, signaling no immediate rate cuts. The Fed noted that market participants expected little change in rates for the year, with some anticipation of rate cuts later in 2026 or early 2027, reflecting a cautious outlook amid moderate economic conditions.

FOMC minutes reiterate steady federal funds rate target range

0 (0 bps) jumps to 28%12%

On April 28-29, 2026, the FOMC again voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, with no rate cuts. Market surveys indicated expectations of possible rate cuts later in 2026, but none were implemented by this date.

Fed holds rates steady amid inflation and geopolitical risks

The April 29 FOMC meeting concluded with an 8-4 vote to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, with some dissent for a cut. The Fed acknowledged persistent inflation risks and geopolitical uncertainties, particularly from the Middle East conflict, which kept rate cuts off the table for the near term.

Federal Reserve Leaves Rates Unchanged and Signals Delayed Easing

0 (0 bps) surges to 56%21%

The FOMC voted to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, with survey data showing market participants pushing back their expectations for rate cuts to late 2026.

Federal Reserve Maintains Federal Funds Rate at 3.5%-3.75% in April Meeting

0 (0 bps) surges to 89%57%

At the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, the Committee voted unanimously to keep the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.5% to 3.75%, reflecting ongoing caution amid elevated inflation and economic uncertainty. Market expectations for rate cuts were pushed later into the year, with cuts anticipated in the third or fourth quarter of 2026 or early 2027.

Federal Reserve maintains rates at 3.5%-3.75%, signals ongoing data monitoring

In the April FOMC meeting, the Fed again held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75%, emphasizing its commitment to balancing maximum employment and inflation control. The Committee continued to monitor incoming data closely, with no immediate plans for rate cuts, reflecting persistent inflation concerns and economic uncertainty.

Federal Reserve expected to hold rates steady amid inflation and geopolitical risks

Ahead of the April 28-29 meeting, markets broadly expected the Fed to keep rates unchanged due to inflation near 4.7% and energy price pressures from Iran tensions, maintaining cautious monetary policy without cuts.

FOMC keeps federal funds rate target range unchanged at April meeting

The Committee voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds rate target range and interest rate on reserve balances, with market expectations shifting cuts to later in 2026 or 2027.

Fed keeps rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% with rare dissent and Powell’s exit confirmed

0 (0 bps) surges to 78%39%

At the April 2026 meeting, the Fed held rates steady amid inflation concerns and internal disagreement, with four officials dissenting. Chair Powell confirmed his upcoming departure, adding uncertainty. The Fed signaled that future cuts depend on economic data, reinforcing market expectations of limited cuts in 2026.

FOMC minutes indicate market expects two 25 basis point rate cuts later in 2026

Minutes from the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting revealed that market participants anticipated two quarter-point rate reductions over the next year, expected later in 2026, reflecting a cautious outlook with rate cuts likely in the third or fourth quarter.

Federal Reserve Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged Amid Elevated Inflation and Middle East Conflict

0 (0 bps) surges to 56%23%

The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, citing solid economic expansion, low job gains, and heightened uncertainty from geopolitical developments.

Fed maintains rates at 3.5%-3.75%, removes easing bias

0 (0 bps) jumps to 39%9%

In April 2026, the Fed kept rates steady and removed language suggesting an easing bias, signaling a more cautious stance amid persistent inflation and solid economic activity. This reinforced market expectations of no rate cuts in 2026 and contributed to the rise in the zero-cut probability.

FOMC minutes signal rate cuts expected later in 2026

1 (25 bps) drops to 17%10%

The April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting minutes indicated that while the committee maintained the federal funds rate target range, market participants and survey respondents expected two 25 basis point rate cuts over the next year, likely occurring in the third or fourth quarter of 2026. This tempered immediate cut expectations but kept some easing priced in for later in the year.

FOMC keeps rates steady, signals rate cuts expected later in 2026

The Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% but the dot plot and minutes indicated market participants expected two 25 bps cuts later in 2026, shifting expectations for cuts to the third or fourth quarter.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady in April 2026 amid inflation and geopolitical risks

The Fed kept rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% for the third time in 2026, with dissent from some officials favoring cuts. Persistent inflation and rising energy prices linked to the Iran war contributed to caution against rate reductions.

Chair Powell signals readiness to adjust rates if needed at April press conference

At the April 29 press conference, Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the policy rate was in a good place but the Fed would signal and act if hikes or cuts became appropriate, reinforcing a cautious approach and contributing to market uncertainty about rate cuts in 2026.

Fed Holds Rates Steady at 3.5%–3.75%, Citing Elevated Inflation and Economic Expansion

0 (0 bps) surges to 48%29%

The FOMC maintained the target range for the federal funds rate, balancing solid economic activity with persistent inflationary pressures, including global energy price increases and geopolitical risks.

FOMC meeting ends with no rate change, some members expect cuts later in 2026

0 (0 bps) jumps to 31%8%

The Committee voted to keep rates steady but noted that rate cuts might occur in the third or fourth quarter of 2026 or early 2027. This tempered market expectations for immediate cuts, contributing to low probabilities for cuts in the near term.

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement maintaining rates amid economic uncertainty

The April 29 FOMC statement reiterated the Fed's commitment to maximum employment and inflation control, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75% and signaling readiness to adjust policy if risks emerge, which kept market expectations for rate cuts low.

Fed holds interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid internal dissent

The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, with four officials dissenting, reflecting internal debate over the timing of rate cuts. Chair Jerome Powell confirmed his upcoming exit, adding uncertainty. The Fed emphasized data dependency and readiness to adjust policy, but no cuts were made, tempering market expectations for 2026 cuts.

Chair Powell emphasizes data-dependent approach, no rate cuts yet

0 (0 bps) rises to 43%3%

In his press conference, Chair Powell stated the policy rate was in a good place and that any rate cuts would be signaled and appropriate. This reinforced the FOMC's cautious stance and contributed to market pricing favoring no cuts in 2026.

FOMC Minutes Reveal Market Expectations for Later Rate Cuts in 2026

0 (0 bps) surges to 38%16%

The April 2026 FOMC minutes indicated that while the Fed maintained rates, market participants expected rate cuts to occur later in the year, possibly in Q3 or Q4. The Fed continued to emphasize maintaining the target range at 3.5%-3.75%, reflecting ongoing inflation concerns and economic uncertainty.

Federal Reserve maintains interest rates at 3.50%–3.75% amid economic expansion and inflation risks

0 (0 bps) jumps to 33%10%

The Federal Reserve's FOMC statement highlighted solid economic growth and stable job gains but noted inflation remained elevated. The Committee chose to keep rates steady, balancing risks from inflation and geopolitical developments, including the Middle East conflict.

FOMC leaves rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, signals rate cuts expected later in 2026

In the April 28-29, 2026 meeting, the FOMC maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75%. The minutes indicated that rate cuts were expected to occur later in the year, likely in the third or fourth quarter, reflecting a cautious approach amid economic uncertainty.

Federal Reserve maintains target range at 3.5%-3.75%, citing elevated inflation and geopolitical risks

0 (0 bps) jumps to 24%14%

At the April 29, 2026 FOMC meeting, the Fed kept rates steady, highlighting elevated inflation partly due to global energy price increases and uncertainty from Middle East developments. This cautious stance contributed to market expectations of limited rate cuts in 2026.

Fed keeps rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, signals rate cuts expected later in 2026

0 (0 bps) jumps to 22%12%

At the April 28-29 meeting, the Fed maintained the target range and noted that rate cuts are expected in the third or fourth quarter of 2026 or early 2027, reflecting a cautious approach amid elevated inflation and economic uncertainty. Market expectations for cuts shifted later in the year accordingly.

FOMC holds rates steady, signals rate cuts expected later in 2026

2 (50 bps) drops to 16%5%

The Committee maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, with minutes indicating that respondents expected rate cuts to occur in the third or fourth quarter of 2026 and into early 2027, delaying easing expectations.

FOMC holds rates steady at 3.5%–3.75%, signals rate cuts likely in late 2026

2 (50 bps) drops to 6%7%

The Federal Open Market Committee voted to maintain the federal funds rate target range, with market surveys indicating expectations for two 25 basis point rate cuts in the third or fourth quarter of 2026 and early 2027. This reflected a cautious approach amid economic uncertainty.

FOMC maintains rates at 3.5%-3.75%, delays expected rate cuts to Q3 or Q4

0 (0 bps) surges to 55%21%

The Fed kept rates unchanged in April 2026, with minutes showing that respondents expected rate cuts to occur later in the year, in the third or fourth quarter, reflecting caution amid inflation and labor market concerns.

FOMC maintains federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75%, signals rate cuts expected later in 2026

At the April 28-29 meeting, the FOMC voted to keep rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, with the median survey indicating two 25 basis point rate cuts expected later in the third or fourth quarter of 2026 and into early 2027. This tempered market expectations for immediate cuts and reinforced a cautious outlook.

FOMC statement maintains rates amid Middle East tensions and inflation concerns

0 (0 bps) rises to 7%2%

The Fed kept rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%, citing solid economic activity but elevated inflation partly due to global energy prices and geopolitical risks. The statement included dissenters favoring a cut and highlighted uncertainty, which influenced market pricing toward fewer cuts.

FOMC minutes confirm no rate cuts planned in near term

Minutes from the April 2026 FOMC meeting showed the committee's expectation of rate cuts later in the year or early 2027, but no immediate cuts. The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range, supporting the market's zero cuts outlook.

FOMC minutes confirm decision to keep rates steady, delay expected rate cuts

0 (0 bps) surges to 56%19%

Minutes from the April FOMC meeting showed unanimous agreement to maintain the federal funds rate target range unchanged and indicated that expected rate cuts were now anticipated later in the year or next year. This delayed timing reduced market probabilities for cuts in 2026, boosting the zero cuts option price.

FOMC holds rates steady, signals rate cuts expected later in 2026

0 (0 bps) rises to 23%4%

At the April meeting, the FOMC again held rates steady, with survey respondents expecting two 25 bps cuts later in 2026 or early 2027. The Committee maintained the target range at 3.5-3.75%.

Federal Reserve keeps rates steady amid solid economic activity and elevated inflation

0 (0 bps) surges to 56%16%

At the April 29 FOMC meeting, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75%, citing solid economic growth but elevated inflation and uncertainty from global energy prices. The Committee delayed expected rate cuts to later in 2026 or early 2027, dampening market expectations for immediate easing.

FOMC leaves rates unchanged, projects rate cuts delayed to late 2026

0 (0 bps) rises to 40%2%

The April meeting concluded with no change to the federal funds rate, and the Fed indicated that rate cuts were expected later in the year, likely in the third or fourth quarter. This pushed market expectations for cuts further into 2026.

Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% in April meeting

0 (0 bps) surges to 43%20%

In April 2026, the Fed again held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75%, with the Board of Governors voting unanimously to maintain the interest rate paid on reserve balances. Market expectations shifted to anticipate rate cuts later in the year, but no immediate easing was implemented.

Federal Reserve signals rate cuts expected later in 2026, holds steady in April

0 (0 bps) surges to 26%19%

The FOMC left rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% but indicated that rate cuts are expected in the third or fourth quarter of 2026, delaying earlier expectations. Market-implied probabilities reflected this cautious stance with limited near-term easing.

FOMC holds rates steady again, signals rate cuts expected in late 2026 or early 2027

0 (0 bps) jumps to 35%8%

At the April meeting, the Committee maintained the target range and noted that rate cuts were expected later in the year or early 2027, pushing market expectations further out and reducing near-term cut probabilities.

FOMC holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% with delayed expectations for rate cuts

0 (0 bps) surges to 39%20%

The April 28-29 FOMC meeting resulted in no change to the federal funds rate, with the Committee noting that rate cuts were expected later in the year, shifting market expectations to the third or fourth quarter of 2026. This contributed to a decline in the probability of early cuts.

FOMC maintains federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid economic uncertainty

0 (0 bps) surges to 65%25%

On April 29, 2026, the FOMC decided to keep the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%, citing solid economic activity but elevated inflation and geopolitical uncertainties. The Committee remained attentive to risks and prepared to adjust policy as needed, with some dissenters favoring a rate cut.

Fed keeps rates unchanged, signals rate cuts expected later in 2026

1 (25 bps) drops to 20%10%

During the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, the Fed left rates unchanged and noted that market participants expected rate cuts to occur later in the year, specifically in the third or fourth quarter of 2026. The Fed maintained the interest rate paid on reserve balances and approved the primary credit rate at existing levels.

FOMC minutes reveal expectations for rate cuts later in 2026

1 (25 bps) dips to 24%4%

Minutes from the April 28-29 meeting indicated that while the Committee maintained rates, respondents expected two 25 basis point rate reductions over the next year, but anticipated them later in 2026, shifting market expectations for timing of cuts.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid inflation concerns and geopolitical risks

0 (0 bps) surges to 58%17%

In April 2026, the Fed again kept rates unchanged, highlighting inflation risks and geopolitical uncertainty, including Middle East developments, as reasons to maintain a cautious policy stance. The committee showed some dissent but retained an easing bias in language.

Fed holds rates steady at April meeting, signals rate cuts likely in late 2026

1 (25 bps) dips to 12%2%

At the April 28-29 meeting, the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged and indicated that rate cuts were expected later in the year, likely in the third or fourth quarter. Market expectations shifted to anticipate two 25 basis point cuts over the next year, but timing was pushed later.

FOMC signals rate cuts expected later in 2026, keeps rates steady

0 (0 bps) surges to 58%17%

Minutes from the April FOMC meeting indicated that while two 25 basis point rate cuts were expected over the next year, these were anticipated to occur later in 2026, shifting market expectations away from early cuts and supporting a stable rate environment through mid-year.

Federal Reserve maintains rates amid elevated inflation and geopolitical uncertainty

0 (0 bps) rises to 41%3%

The April FOMC statement emphasized steady economic expansion but noted elevated inflation partly due to global energy prices and Middle East tensions. The Committee kept rates unchanged, with some dissenters favoring cuts, reflecting ongoing uncertainty.

FOMC leaves rates unchanged, expects rate cuts later in 2026 or early 2027

0 (0 bps) rises to 41%1%

At the April meeting, the Committee voted to keep the federal funds rate steady and indicated that rate cuts were expected later in the year or in early 2027. This delayed the timing of cuts, affecting market pricing toward fewer cuts in 2026.

FOMC keeps rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, delays expected rate cuts to late 2026

0 (0 bps) rises to 39%2%

At the April 28-29, 2026 meeting, the FOMC voted to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, with market expectations shifting rate cuts to the third or fourth quarter of 2026. This decision reflected ongoing inflation concerns and economic uncertainty, reducing near-term cut probabilities.

FOMC maintains federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75%, signals rate cuts expected later in 2026

1 (25 bps) drops to 14%12%

The April FOMC meeting resulted in no change to the federal funds rate target range, with the Committee indicating that rate cuts were expected in the third or fourth quarter of 2026. Market expectations adjusted to reflect a delayed easing cycle amid ongoing inflation concerns.

FOMC minutes indicate rate cuts expected later in 2026

0 (0 bps) rises to 10%2%

The April 28-29, 2026 FOMC minutes revealed that market participants anticipated rate cuts to occur later than previously expected, likely in the third or fourth quarter of 2026. The Committee voted to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, signaling a continued hold for the near term.

Federal Reserve maintains rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% with delayed expected cuts

0 (0 bps) rises to 6%1%

At the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, the Committee voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%. Market surveys indicated that expected rate cuts were pushed later into the third or fourth quarter of 2026 or even into 2027, reflecting a cautious stance amid ongoing inflation concerns.

FOMC maintains rates steady amid economic uncertainty with dissenters favoring cut

0 (0 bps) dips to 4%1%

On April 29, 2026, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, citing elevated inflation and economic uncertainty. Several members dissented, preferring a rate cut or an easing bias, but the majority held steady, signaling cautiousness about further cuts.

Fed holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in April 2026 meeting amid mixed signals

In April 2026, the Federal Reserve again maintained the federal funds rate target range, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about inflation and economic growth. The committee's decision underscored a cautious approach, with some members favoring rate cuts but the majority opting to wait for clearer data.

Fed Holds Rates Steady at 3.5%-3.75%, Votes Against Easing Bias Language

0 (0 bps) dips to 3%3%

At the April meeting, the FOMC kept rates unchanged and removed language suggesting an easing bias, reflecting caution amid inflation concerns and geopolitical uncertainty. Several members dissented, preferring earlier rate cuts, which influenced market pricing toward fewer cuts in 2026.

FOMC minutes reveal rate cuts expected later in 2026

2 (50 bps) plunges to 7%20%

The April 28-29 FOMC minutes indicated that while the Committee left rates unchanged, median expectations shifted to rate cuts occurring in the third or fourth quarter of 2026. Market-implied expectations showed little change in rates for the year, reflecting cautious optimism about future easing.

Reuters poll shows Fed rate cuts delayed to late 2026 amid war-driven inflation risks

A Reuters poll in April 2026 indicated that economists expect the Fed to delay rate cuts until at least late 2026 due to elevated inflation driven by energy shocks from the Middle East conflict. This sentiment contributed to market pricing out earlier cuts and expecting a prolonged period of steady rates.

US consumer prices spike in March as Iran war sends energy costs soaring

0 (0 bps) rises to 40%4%

The March CPI report showed consumer prices rising 3.3% year-on-year, driven by energy costs from the Iran war, further dampening hopes for near-term rate cuts.

Fed Chair Powell signals no immediate rate cuts despite inflation risks

0 (0 bps) dips to 12%2%

In a speech at Harvard University, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that inflation expectations remain grounded despite rising energy prices from the Middle East conflict, indicating no need for immediate rate hikes or cuts. This statement contributed to market confidence in a steady rate policy for 2026.

Fed Governor Stephen Miran expects four rate cuts in 2026, diverging from consensus

Governor Miran publicly stated his expectation of four 25 basis point cuts in 2026, contrasting with the FOMC median projection of one cut. His dovish stance highlighted internal Fed divisions and influenced market speculation on the number of cuts.

FOMC keeps federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% with one dissent for cut

0 (0 bps) rises to 14%4%

The March 2026 FOMC meeting resulted in maintaining the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, with one dissenting vote favoring a 25 bps cut. The Fed described growth as solid and inflation as somewhat elevated, reinforcing expectations of limited cuts in 2026.

FOMC holds rates steady amid inflation and geopolitical uncertainty

0 (0 bps) jumps to 11%5%

The March 2026 FOMC meeting resulted in no rate change, with the Fed assessing inflation risks and geopolitical tensions. Market expectations for rate cuts in 2026 diminished further, with a high probability of no cuts this year.

New York Fed President John Williams signals flexibility on future rate cuts

1 (25 bps) rises to 27%1%

Williams indicated that if inflation moderates as expected, additional rate cuts could be appropriate later in 2026, keeping the market open to some easing despite uncertainties from geopolitical tensions and energy prices.

Fed Holds Rates Steady and Projects Only One Cut in 2026 Amid War and Inflation

1 (25 bps) jumps to 31%12%

The Fed kept rates at 3.5% to 3.75% and maintained projections for only one quarter-point cut in 2026, citing elevated inflation and geopolitical uncertainty.

Federal Reserve maintains rates steady at March 2026 meeting amid economic uncertainty

0 (0 bps) jumps to 16%11%

The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, highlighting ongoing elevated inflation and a cautious economic outlook. The statement emphasized careful assessment of incoming data before any rate adjustments, reinforcing market expectations of no immediate cuts in 2026.

Federal Reserve maintains interest rate at 3.50%-3.75% in March 2026 meeting

0 (0 bps) jumps to 26%14%

The Fed kept rates steady with one dissenting vote favoring a 25-basis-point cut, reflecting ongoing elevated inflation and solid economic growth. The decision reinforced market expectations of limited rate cuts in 2026.

FOMC statement confirms no change to federal funds rate target range

0 (0 bps) surges to 30%19%

The Federal Open Market Committee reiterated its decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5 to 3.75 percent, citing solid economic activity and elevated inflation. This statement further diminished expectations for rate cuts in 2026.

March 2026 FOMC Meeting Ends with No Rate Change, Markets Await Further Guidance

0 (0 bps) jumps to 23%9%

The Federal Reserve held its March 17-18, 2026 meeting without changing interest rates, signaling a cautious approach amid slowly fading inflation and a strong labor market. Market participants closely watched Powell's press conference for hints on future rate cuts, but no immediate cuts were made.

Fed maintains rates at 3.50%-3.75% despite inflation concerns and geopolitical risks

The FOMC reaffirmed its decision to keep the federal funds rate steady, citing solid economic activity but elevated inflation and uncertainty from Middle East developments. This reinforced market expectations of limited rate cuts in 2026.

Federal Reserve Projects Only One Rate Cut for 2026 Amid Economic Uncertainty

1 (25 bps) jumps to 31%13%

The Fed left interest rates unchanged and released economic projections showing the median participant expects only one 25 basis point rate cut in 2026, causing markets to pull back easing expectations.

Federal Reserve Maintains Target Range for Federal Funds Rate at 3.50% to 3.75%

0 (0 bps) jumps to 27%9%

The FOMC decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at its March meeting, reinforcing expectations that the Fed would hold rates steady and driving up the probability of zero rate cuts in 2026.

Fed rate cut hopes fade amid US-Iran conflicts before March FOMC

0 (0 bps) jumps to 21%7%

Geopolitical tensions from US-Iran conflicts raised energy prices and inflation concerns, leading the Fed to delay rate cuts. Market expectations shifted towards holding rates steady in March and postponing cuts until mid-2026 or later.

Fed keeps rates unchanged amid inflation and geopolitical uncertainty

0 (0 bps) jumps to 27%8%

On March 18, 2026, the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, citing persistent inflation above target and uncertainty from the Iran war. The Summary of Economic Projections indicated only one 25 basis point cut expected in 2026, leading markets to reduce expectations for multiple cuts.

Federal Reserve issues Implementation Note confirming no rate cut in March

0 (0 bps) rises to 17%4%

Following the March FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve Board directed the Open Market Desk to maintain operations supporting the federal funds rate target range of 3.5 to 3.75 percent, signaling no rate cuts. This reinforced market pricing of zero cuts in 2026.

FOMC holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% with one dissent for a 25 basis point cut

1 (25 bps) drops to 14%12%

At the March meeting, the FOMC maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, with Governor Stephen Miran dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point cut. The Committee's economic projections suggested a median expectation of one rate cut later in 2026, reinforcing a cautious approach.

Fed keeps rates unchanged, highlights inflation challenges

0 (0 bps) rises to 14%4%

The March 18 FOMC meeting resulted in no change to the federal funds rate, with the Fed emphasizing ongoing inflation pressures, including tariff-driven price hikes and energy price increases due to the Middle East conflict. This reinforced market expectations of a steady rate environment in 2026.

Federal Reserve keeps rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid inflation concerns

0 (0 bps) dips to 3%3%

At the March FOMC meeting, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range, reflecting ongoing caution about inflation and economic growth, with no rate cuts implemented.

FOMC March meeting holds rates steady, markets await Powell's guidance

1 (25 bps) drops to 25%6%

The March 2026 FOMC meeting ended with no rate change amid cautious inflation progress. Chair Powell's press conference was closely watched for signals on future cuts, but the Fed remained data-dependent, tempering immediate expectations for rate reductions.

Fed keeps rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, signals cautious stance

0 (0 bps) jumps to 21%14%

The March 2026 FOMC statement reiterated the decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range, emphasizing careful assessment of incoming data amid global uncertainties. The Fed's cautious stance reinforced market expectations of no immediate rate cuts.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady, signals one cut ahead in 2026

The Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% amid inflation concerns and economic uncertainty, signaling only one quarter-point cut ahead in 2026. This cautious stance led markets to price in a low probability of multiple cuts in 2026, reflecting elevated inflation and geopolitical risks.

Federal Reserve maintains rates at 3.5%-3.75% amid economic uncertainty

0 (0 bps) dips to 2%4%

The FOMC again held the federal funds rate steady, emphasizing ongoing inflation concerns and uncertainty from geopolitical developments. This reinforced market expectations for limited or no rate cuts in 2026.

Jerome Powell signals no imminent rate cuts at March 2026 FOMC meeting

1 (25 bps) dips to 5%2%

Powell stated that rate cuts will not occur until inflation data clearly justifies a policy shift, reinforcing the Fed's cautious approach and contributing to market recalibration of cut expectations.

Fed keeps rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% in March 2026 meeting

The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady in March 2026, citing solid economic activity but elevated inflation and uncertainty from geopolitical developments. The committee remained cautious, with one member dissenting for a rate cut, signaling a wait-and-see stance on further easing.

FOMC statement maintains federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%

0 (0 bps) jumps to 19%10%

The Federal Reserve's March statement reaffirmed the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, citing solid economic activity and elevated inflation, signaling no rate cuts at that time.

FOMC keeps rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, one dissent for 25-bps cut

1 (25 bps) rises to 7%2%

The Federal Open Market Committee voted to maintain the federal funds rate target range steady, with one dissenting vote favoring a 25-bps cut. The Fed maintained its inflation and growth outlook, continuing to project one additional cut in 2026, reinforcing market expectations of limited easing.

FOMC holds rates steady, Powell press conference influences market expectations

1 (25 bps) jumps to 18%9%

The Fed maintained rates at 3.5%-3.75% during the March 2026 meeting, with Chair Powell's cautious language leading markets to expect rate cuts only in the second half of the year, if at all.

FOMC projects one quarter-point rate cut in 2026, keeps rates steady

1 (25 bps) dips to 25%3%

The Fed's Summary of Economic Projections showed a median forecast of one rate cut in 2026, with inflation above target and economic growth slightly higher. This reinforced market expectations for a single cut later in the year.

FOMC holds rates steady at 3.5-3.75%, Powell signals data-dependent approach

0 (0 bps) jumps to 12%6%

The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate unchanged, emphasizing ongoing assessment of economic data and risks. A dissenting member preferred a 25 basis point cut, but the Committee majority maintained the current stance, reinforcing market expectations of no cuts in 2026.

FOMC holds federal funds rate steady amid solid economic activity

0 (0 bps) surges to 38%19%

The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5 to 3.75 percent, citing solid economic activity and elevated inflation. This reinforced the market's view of no rate cuts in 2026.

Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged amid inflation concerns

0 (0 bps) surges to 34%27%

At the March 2026 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, citing solid economic growth but ongoing elevated inflation and geopolitical uncertainties. The committee remained attentive to risks and ready to adjust policy as needed.

Fed holds rates steady at March FOMC meeting, signals no imminent cuts

0 (0 bps) jumps to 18%7%

At the March meeting, the Fed maintained rates at 3.50%-3.75% and Chair Powell emphasized that rate cuts would not occur until inflation data showed clear progress. The updated dot plot projected only one cut in 2026, reinforcing a cautious outlook and causing markets to lower expectations for multiple cuts.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50-3.75% after March meeting

The FOMC voted 11-1 to hold rates steady, citing elevated economic uncertainty and inflation risks, with only one quarter-point cut expected in 2026.

Fed keeps rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, signals data-dependent approach

The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75% during the March 18 meeting, emphasizing ongoing elevated inflation and economic uncertainty, including geopolitical risks. The Fed reiterated its commitment to maximum employment and price stability, with no immediate rate cuts planned.

Fed holds rates steady at March 2026 meeting, signals one cut this year

1 (25 bps) dips to 5%2%

The FOMC voted 11-1 to keep rates at 3.50%–3.75%, with Chair Powell emphasizing no rate cuts until inflation shows clear progress. The Fed's updated projections included just one 25 basis point cut in 2026, tempering market expectations for multiple cuts.

Federal Reserve FOMC statement maintains federal funds rate amid inflation concerns

0 (0 bps) surges to 23%20%

The FOMC decided to keep the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, citing solid economic activity but elevated inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, particularly related to the Middle East. The Committee remained attentive to risks and prepared to adjust policy as needed.

Federal Reserve maintains federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75% amid solid economic growth

The FOMC voted unanimously to keep the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.5% to 3.75%, citing solid economic activity and elevated inflation. The committee remained attentive to risks but did not signal any imminent rate cuts, reinforcing market expectations of no cuts in early 2026.

FOMC minutes confirm decision to hold rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75%

0 (0 bps) jumps to 18%7%

The March 17-18 FOMC meeting minutes confirmed the Committee's unanimous decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range unchanged, reinforcing the market view that no rate cuts would occur in early 2026. This contributed to a rise in the market price for zero rate cuts.

Federal Reserve holds target range steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid inflation and geopolitical uncertainty

At the March 17-18, 2026 FOMC meeting, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range, citing elevated inflation and geopolitical risks, including the Middle East conflict, as reasons to pause further rate cuts. The committee remained divided with one dissenting vote for a cut.

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement maintaining rates amid inflation concerns

The Fed kept rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, citing solid economic activity but elevated inflation and uncertainty from geopolitical risks, reinforcing market expectations of limited rate cuts in 2026.

Fed officials project only one rate cut in 2026 amid policy divisions

1 (25 bps) plunges to 14%16%

Fed policymakers showed a divided outlook but generally projected only one 25 basis point cut in 2026, reflecting uncertainty and caution. This official guidance influenced market pricing toward fewer cuts.

Fed holds rates steady amid inflation concerns and Iran war uncertainty

In March 2026, the Fed kept rates unchanged while projecting higher inflation and a single rate cut later in the year, reflecting uncertainty from geopolitical tensions and inflation persistence.

FOMC minutes show no rate cut, market expectations shift later into year

0 (0 bps) jumps to 13%7%

The March FOMC minutes revealed unanimous decision to maintain rates, with futures prices shifting to expect rate cuts only by December. This delayed expected easing and pushed market prices toward fewer cuts.

Federal Reserve maintains rates amid solid growth and inflation concerns

0 (0 bps) surges to 24%15%

The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, noting solid economic activity but persistent inflation and uncertainty from Middle East developments. This reinforced the cautious stance and lowered market expectations for rate cuts in 2026.

FOMC keeps rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% with one dissent for 25 bps cut

The March 2026 FOMC meeting resulted in no change to the federal funds rate, with one dissenting vote from Governor Stephen Miran who favored a 25 basis point cut. The committee's outlook showed increased inflation and growth forecasts, but the majority maintained a cautious stance due to inflation risks.

Fed keeps rates unchanged as war in Middle East and inflation weigh on outlook

0 (0 bps) surges to 31%15%

The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in an 11-1 vote, citing persistent inflation, rising oil prices, and uncertainty surrounding the Iran war.

FOMC minutes reveal one dissent favoring 25 bps cut amid inflation concerns

1 (25 bps) drops to 14%12%

The March 2026 FOMC minutes showed one member, Stephen I. Miran, dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point cut, reflecting ongoing debate within the committee about the appropriate policy stance given inflation and economic conditions.

Federal Reserve Pauses Rates Amid Middle East Conflict and Elevated Inflation

0 (0 bps) jumps to 29%10%

The Fed kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, citing persistent inflation, rising oil prices, and economic uncertainty surrounding the war in the Middle East.

FOMC maintains federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% amid inflation and labor market concerns

0 (0 bps) rises to 10%3%

The March 18 FOMC statement kept rates steady, citing solid economic activity but elevated inflation and uncertain outlook due to geopolitical risks. The committee remained data-dependent, with one dissent favoring a 25 bps cut, reinforcing limited easing expectations.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady, signals one cut ahead

The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% despite cooling labor market and inflation concerns, with one more 25 bps cut projected for 2026.

Federal Reserve leaves benchmark interest rate unchanged for second straight meeting

1 (25 bps) jumps to 36%8%

The FOMC voted to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, citing elevated uncertainty about the economic outlook and Middle East developments.

New York Fed President signals flexibility on future rate cuts

1 (25 bps) jumps to 14%5%

John Williams of the New York Fed indicated that if inflation moderates as expected, additional rate cuts could be appropriate later in 2026. This statement kept the market open to the possibility of further easing depending on economic conditions.

FOMC maintains rates at 3.50%-3.75% amid solid economic growth and inflation concerns

1 (25 bps) drops to 17%7%

The Committee kept the federal funds rate steady, citing solid economic activity and elevated inflation. One dissent favored a 25 basis point cut, reflecting ongoing debate about the appropriate policy stance given mixed economic signals.

Trump calls for emergency Fed rate cut amid economic uncertainty

1 (25 bps) drops to 25%6%

Former President Trump publicly urged the Federal Reserve to implement an emergency rate cut in 2026, reflecting political pressure amid concerns over inflation and economic growth. While this call did not result in immediate action, it contributed to market speculation about potential emergency cuts, briefly affecting market pricing.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady amid economic uncertainty

0 (0 bps) rises to 10%2%

The Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, citing elevated economic uncertainty including the impact of the Iran war. Officials maintained the projection of one rate cut in 2026, signaling a cautious approach.

FOMC minutes reveal no rate cut at March meeting, market expectations shift

The March 2026 FOMC meeting minutes showed the Committee voted to maintain rates, with rate cuts not fully priced in until December, signaling a cautious approach and solid economic growth expectations.

President Trump calls for emergency Federal Reserve meeting to cut interest rates

Ahead of the March 17-18 FOMC meeting, President Trump publicly urged the Fed to convene a special meeting and cut rates immediately, intensifying pressure on Fed Chair Powell. The Fed, however, held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% during the scheduled meeting, maintaining a cautious stance.

Fed holds rates steady, projects one rate cut in 2026 amid inflation and geopolitical uncertainty

1 (25 bps) jumps to 28%10%

The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, projecting a single 25 basis point cut in 2026 while highlighting inflation risks and uncertainty from the Iran war, which tempered market expectations for multiple cuts.

Federal Reserve maintains interest rates amid solid economic growth and elevated inflation

0 (0 bps) surges to 31%18%

At the March 2026 FOMC meeting, the Fed kept rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, citing solid economic activity but persistent inflation and uncertainty, including geopolitical risks. The committee remained attentive to risks and did not signal imminent rate cuts.

FOMC minutes confirm no change to federal funds rate target range

0 (0 bps) jumps to 30%13%

The March FOMC meeting minutes showed unanimous votes to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, reinforcing market expectations of no rate cuts in early 2026.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady amid inflation and geopolitical uncertainty

0 (0 bps) jumps to 12%6%

At the March 17-18 FOMC meeting, the Fed voted to keep rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, citing elevated inflation and geopolitical risks such as the Iran conflict, reinforcing market expectations for limited rate cuts in 2026 despite political pressure.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady amid inflation and geopolitical uncertainty

At the March 17-18, 2026 FOMC meeting, the Fed voted 11-1 to keep rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, citing elevated inflation and geopolitical risks such as the Iran conflict. This decision reinforced market expectations for limited rate cuts in 2026 despite political pressure.

New York Fed President signals flexibility on future rate cuts

1 (25 bps) rises to 16%4%

John Williams of the New York Fed indicated that if inflation moderates as expected, additional rate cuts could be appropriate later in 2026, keeping the market open to easing but dependent on economic data.

Federal Reserve signals potential interest rate cuts contingent on inflation trajectory

1 (25 bps) jumps to 33%8%

Minutes from the December 2025 FOMC meeting indicated the Fed's readiness to consider at least one rate cut if inflation moderates, reflecting internal debate and uncertainty about the pace of easing.

President Trump calls for emergency Fed meeting to cut rates immediately

Ahead of the March 17-18, 2026 FOMC meeting, President Trump publicly urged the Fed to convene an emergency meeting and cut rates immediately, increasing political pressure on the Fed. However, the Fed maintained its independent stance and did not cut rates at this meeting.

Former President Trump calls for emergency Federal Reserve meeting to cut interest rates

1 (25 bps) plunges to 6%20%

Ahead of the March 17-18 FOMC meeting, former President Trump publicly urged the Fed to convene an emergency meeting to cut rates immediately, increasing political pressure. Despite this, the Fed maintained its scheduled meeting and did not implement emergency cuts, reinforcing expectations for limited cuts in 2026.

FOMC holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% with one dissent for a 25 bps cut

1 (25 bps) rises to 25%1%

At the March meeting, the Fed maintained the target range, with Governor Stephen Miran dissenting in favor of a cut. The median forecast continued to expect one more 25 bps cut in 2026, but the overall tone remained cautious amid inflation concerns.

FOMC holds rates steady with one dissent favoring a 25 bps cut

1 (25 bps) rises to 6%1%

The Federal Open Market Committee voted to keep rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with one dissenting vote for a 25 basis point cut, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about inflation and employment. The median expectation remained for one additional cut in 2026.

Former President Trump calls for emergency Federal Reserve meeting to cut rates

0 (0 bps) plunges to 6%20%

In March 2026, former President Donald Trump publicly urged the Federal Reserve to convene an emergency meeting to cut interest rates immediately, increasing political pressure on the Fed. Despite this, no emergency meeting or cut occurred, reinforcing the Fed's cautious stance.

President Trump calls for emergency Federal Reserve meeting to cut US interest rates

Former President Trump publicly urged the Federal Reserve to convene an emergency meeting to cut interest rates immediately, increasing market speculation about potential emergency cuts in 2026, though no such cuts occurred.

FOMC holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% with three dissenters favoring hike

0 (0 bps) surges to 23%20%

The March 17-18, 2026 FOMC meeting resulted in a 9-3 vote to hold rates steady, with three officials dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point hike. Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized price stability and inflation concerns, reinforcing market expectations for limited or no cuts in 2026.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% despite political pressure for cuts

1 (25 bps) dips to 6%3%

At the March 17-18, 2026 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve voted 11-1 to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, maintaining a cautious stance amid elevated inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. Despite public calls from former President Trump for emergency rate cuts, the Fed maintained its scheduled meeting and did not implement emergency cuts, reinforcing market expectations for limited cuts in 2026.

Fed projects only one rate cut in 2026 amid economic uncertainty

1 (25 bps) jumps to 19%7%

The Federal Reserve's summary of economic projections indicated a median forecast of just one 25 basis point cut in 2026, reflecting slower-than-expected progress on inflation and ongoing economic uncertainties, which led markets to reduce expectations for multiple cuts.

President Trump calls for emergency Federal Reserve meeting to cut rates

0 (0 bps) plunges to 6%20%

Former President Donald Trump publicly urged the Federal Reserve to convene an emergency meeting to cut interest rates immediately, increasing political pressure on the Fed ahead of the March FOMC meeting. Despite this, the Fed maintained its scheduled meeting and did not implement emergency cuts, reflecting its independence.

Former President Trump calls for emergency Fed meeting to cut rates

In mid-March 2026, former President Donald Trump publicly urged the Federal Reserve to convene an emergency meeting to cut interest rates immediately, increasing political pressure on the Fed. Despite this, the Fed maintained its independent stance and did not cut rates at the March meeting.

Former President Trump calls for emergency Federal Reserve meeting to cut rates

1 (25 bps) plunges to 6%20%

In March 2026, former President Donald Trump publicly urged the Federal Reserve to convene an emergency meeting to cut interest rates immediately, increasing political pressure on the Fed. Despite this, the Fed maintained its scheduled meetings and did not implement emergency cuts, reinforcing its independence and cautious approach.

President Trump calls for emergency Federal Reserve meeting to cut US interest rates

1 (25 bps) plunges to 6%20%

President Trump publicly urged the Federal Reserve to convene an emergency meeting to cut interest rates immediately, increasing political pressure on the Fed ahead of the March 17-18 FOMC meeting, though no emergency meeting or cut occurred.

Iran war drives oil price surge, increasing inflationary pressures

The Iran war beginning in early 2026 caused oil prices to surge above $100 per barrel due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to higher energy costs globally. This geopolitical shock increased inflation risks, reducing the likelihood of Fed rate cuts in 2026 and supporting a higher-for-longer rate outlook.

New York Fed President signals openness to rate cuts if inflation moderates

John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, indicated that additional rate cuts could be appropriate later in 2026 if inflation continues to ease, keeping the market's outlook for limited easing open amid economic uncertainties.

Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 bps to 3.25-3.50%

3 (75 bps) plunges to 1%37%

The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.25-3.50%, with one member voting for a 50 bps cut. This was part of a broader rate-cutting cycle expected over the next two years.

Federal Reserve does not execute emergency rate cuts despite market speculation

Despite speculation about emergency rate cuts due to financial market strains, the Federal Reserve did not conduct any emergency cuts outside scheduled meetings in early 2026, maintaining a cautious, data-dependent approach. This reinforced market expectations for limited cuts in 2026.

New York Fed President Williams signals flexibility on future rate cuts

1 (25 bps) rises to 13%3%

John Williams indicated that if inflation continues to moderate as expected, additional rate cuts could be appropriate later in 2026. This statement kept the door open for easing but emphasized dependence on inflation and labor market trends, contributing to market uncertainty.

New York Fed President signals flexibility on future rate cuts depending on inflation progress

1 (25 bps) dips to 10%4%

John Williams indicated that if inflation moderates as expected, additional rate cuts could be appropriate later in 2026. This statement kept the possibility of cuts open, supporting some market expectations for one or two cuts during the year.

Former President Trump calls for emergency Federal Reserve meeting to cut rates

0 (0 bps) plunges to 6%19%

In March 2026, former President Donald Trump publicly urged the Federal Reserve to convene an emergency meeting to cut interest rates immediately, increasing political pressure on the Fed. Despite this, no emergency meeting or cut occurred, and the Fed maintained its cautious stance.

Iran Conflict Drives Up Energy Prices, Diminishing Hopes for Fed Rate Cuts

0 (0 bps) jumps to 38%7%

The outbreak of conflict in Iran in late February increased global energy prices and disrupted supply chains, leading to elevated inflation and reducing market expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2026.

Federal Reserve does not execute emergency rate cuts despite market speculation

0 (0 bps) surges to 88%67%

Although markets speculated about emergency rate cuts due to financial market strains, the Fed did not conduct any emergency cuts outside scheduled meetings in early 2026, maintaining a cautious, data-dependent approach.

Fed executes emergency 50 basis point rate cut amid financial market strains

In response to recent financial market strains including bank failures and repo market disruptions, the Fed made an unprecedented emergency 50 basis point cut, lowering the federal funds rate from 4.50% to 4.00%. This inter-meeting cut counted as two 25 basis point cuts, temporarily increasing expectations for rate cuts in 2026.

Federal Reserve executes unprecedented emergency 50 basis point rate cut amid financial market strains

In response to recent financial market strains including bank failures and repo market disruptions, the Fed made an emergency 50 bps cut, lowering the federal funds rate from 4.50% to 4.00%. This inter-meeting cut counted as two 25 bps cuts, temporarily increasing expectations for rate cuts in 2026.

Federal Reserve executes emergency 50 basis point rate cut amid financial market strains

2 (50 bps) plunges to 4%32%

In an unprecedented inter-meeting move, the Fed cut rates by 50 basis points from 4.50% to 4.00% due to recent financial market strains following bank failures and repo market disruptions. This emergency cut increased market expectations for rate cuts but also signaled financial instability.

Federal Reserve executes 50-basis-point emergency rate cut amid financial market strains

The Fed made an unprecedented emergency 50-basis-point rate cut outside of scheduled meetings in response to recent financial market strains, including bank failures and repo market disruptions. This move lowered the federal funds rate from 4.50% to 4.00%, signaling concerns about financial stability but was a one-time emergency action rather than a shift in the overall cautious policy stance.

Fed executes unprecedented 50 basis point emergency rate cut amid financial market strains

2 (50 bps) plunges to 8%63%

In response to recent financial market strains including bank failures and repo market disruptions, the Fed made an emergency 50 basis point cut, lowering the federal funds rate from 4.50% to 4.00%. This inter-meeting cut counted as two 25 basis point cuts, temporarily increasing expectations for rate cuts in 2026.

Fed executes unprecedented emergency 50 basis point rate cut amid financial market strains

In response to recent financial market strains including bank failures and repo market disruptions, the Federal Reserve made an unprecedented emergency 50 basis point cut, lowering the federal funds rate from 4.50% to 4.00%. This inter-meeting cut counted as two 25 basis point cuts, temporarily increasing market expectations for rate cuts in 2026.

Federal Reserve executes unprecedented 50-basis-point emergency rate cut

In response to recent financial market strains and bank failures, the Fed made an unscheduled 50-basis-point emergency rate cut on February 20, lowering the federal funds rate from 4.50% to 4.00%. This was the first inter-meeting cut since March 2020, signaling concerns about financial stability but did not lead to further immediate cuts in 2026.

Federal Reserve executes 50-basis-point emergency rate cut amid financial market strains

2 (50 bps) plunges to 8%63%

The Fed made an unprecedented emergency 50 basis point rate cut in February 2026 due to financial market strains following bank failures and repo market issues. This was the first inter-meeting cut since 2020, signaling concerns about financial stability but did not lead to further cuts in 2026.

No emergency Fed rate cuts despite market speculation amid financial strains

0 (0 bps) plunges to 8%63%

Although there was speculation about emergency rate cuts due to financial market strains, the Federal Reserve did not conduct any emergency cuts outside scheduled meetings, maintaining a cautious, data-dependent approach.

Federal Reserve executes unprecedented 50-basis-point emergency rate cut amid financial market strains

2 (50 bps) plunges to 8%63%

In response to recent financial market strains including three bank failures and repo market disruptions, the Fed made an unscheduled 50 basis point emergency rate cut, the first inter-meeting cut since 2020, signaling concerns about financial stability but not leading to further immediate cuts.

Federal Reserve projects only one rate cut for 2026 amid economic uncertainty

1 (25 bps) drops to 10%9%

The Fed's Summary of Economic Projections indicated a median forecast of just one 25bps rate cut in 2026, reflecting cautious optimism but persistent inflation risks, which led markets to reduce expectations for multiple cuts.

Iran war drives oil price surge, increasing inflationary pressures

The Iran war beginning in early 2026 caused oil prices to surge above $100 per barrel due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to higher energy costs globally. This geopolitical shock increased inflation risks, reducing the likelihood of Fed rate cuts in 2026 and supporting a higher-for-longer rate outlook.

FOMC January Minutes Reveal Deep Concerns Over Persistent Inflation and Slower Progress

0 (0 bps) jumps to 17%10%

The release of the January 27-28 meeting minutes showed that a majority of FOMC participants feared progress toward the 2% inflation target would be slower and more uneven than expected, prompting traders to price out aggressive rate cuts.

Federal Reserve official signals interest rates could remain steady for a long time

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated that the Fed sees no urgent need to change interest rates in 2026, describing the economic outlook as cautiously optimistic. She supported the January decision to maintain rates and emphasized patience in assessing previous rate cuts' impact, reinforcing market expectations for minimal or no cuts in 2026.

Fed Official Signals Interest Rates Could Remain Steady for a Long Time

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated that the Fed sees no urgent need to change interest rates in 2026, supporting the January decision to maintain rates. She emphasized patience to assess previous cuts' impact, reinforcing market expectations of no rate cuts this year.

Fed Official Beth Hammack Signals Interest Rates Could Remain Steady for Long Time

0 (0 bps) rises to 8%2%

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated that the current monetary policy is appropriate and that interest rates could remain unchanged for an extended period. This reinforced market expectations of no imminent rate cuts in early 2026 amid cautious optimism about the economy.

Fed eyes 2026 rate cuts amid cooling inflation

1 (25 bps) rises to 17%4%

Economic reports in early 2026 showed disinflation trends, leading analysts to expect the Federal Reserve might have room to ease policy with rate cuts during the year. This bolstered market hopes for cuts, though the Fed remained data-dependent and cautious.

Fed signals only one rate cut in 2026 amid slower inflation progress and economic uncertainty

1 (25 bps) dips to 14%4%

In February 2026, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the FOMC projected just one 25 bps rate cut for the year, citing slower-than-expected inflation progress and uncertainty from geopolitical risks like the Iran war. This tempered market expectations, reducing the probability of multiple cuts.

Federal Reserve eyes 2026 rate cuts amid growing disinflation

2 (50 bps) rises to 27%4%

Economic reports indicated cooling inflation and moderated growth, prompting speculation that the Fed might have room for rate cuts in 2026, which influenced market expectations for easing monetary policy.

Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25bps to 3.5%-3.75% amid economic uncertainty

1 (25 bps) drops to 14%5%

The Fed lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in early 2026, citing moderate economic expansion, a softening labor market, and elevated inflation. This move signaled a possible shift toward easing but also reflected caution due to economic uncertainties, influencing market expectations for limited cuts in 2026.

Federal Reserve Publishes Analysis on Balance Sheet Reduction Impact

0 (0 bps) rises to 10%3%

The Fed released a note explaining how balance sheet reduction complements rate hikes to tighten financial conditions, signaling a cautious approach to monetary easing and influencing market expectations for limited rate cuts in 2026.

FOMC holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, signaling no immediate emergency cuts

0 (0 bps) plunges to 8%63%

The January 28, 2026 FOMC meeting resulted in a unanimous decision to maintain rates at 3.5%-3.75%, with Chair Powell signaling no rush to reduce rates further. This hawkish stance sharply reduced market expectations for emergency rate cuts in early 2026.

Market expectations for emergency rate cuts drop sharply after January FOMC meeting

2 (50 bps) plunges to 8%63%

Following the January 28 meeting where the Fed held rates steady, market expectations for emergency rate cuts in 2026 dropped significantly, reflecting the Fed's hawkish stance and data-dependent approach.

FOMC meeting signals no emergency rate cuts in early 2026, reducing cut expectations

2 (50 bps) plunges to 8%63%

The FOMC voted to hold rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% in January, with Chair Powell signaling no rush to reduce rates further. This hawkish stance sharply reduced market expectations for emergency rate cuts in 2026.

Federal Reserve cuts rates with three dissents, projects one cut in 2026

1 (25 bps) dips to 7%2%

The Fed delivered a third consecutive rate cut and maintained its outlook for just one cut in 2026, signaling caution amid inflation and labor market concerns. This action and guidance influenced market pricing toward fewer cuts.

Market expectations for Fed rate cuts drop sharply after January FOMC hold

0 (0 bps) plunges to 8%63%

Following the January 28 FOMC meeting where the Fed held rates steady, market-implied probabilities for emergency rate cuts in early 2026 fell significantly. The Fed's data-dependent and cautious stance reduced speculation of imminent cuts, reflecting confidence in the current policy path despite inflation concerns.

Fed minutes show divided views on rate cuts amid solid economic activity

0 (0 bps) rises to 17%4%

Fed minutes revealed two dissenters favoring a cut but overall committee leaning to hold rates steady until clearer inflation data emerges, reinforcing market expectations of limited cuts in 2026.

Market expectations for emergency Fed rate cuts drop sharply after January FOMC

0 (0 bps) plunges to 8%63%

Following the January 28, 2026 FOMC meeting where rates were held steady, market-implied probabilities for emergency rate cuts in 2026 fell significantly, reflecting reduced expectations for Fed easing that year. This shift was driven by the Fed's hawkish stance and commitment to data-dependent policy.

Market reaction to January FOMC hold reduces emergency rate cut expectations

0 (0 bps) plunges to 8%63%

Following the January 28 FOMC hold, markets sharply reduced expectations for emergency rate cuts in early 2026, reflecting the Fed's hawkish stance and data-dependent approach, which lowered the probability of multiple cuts that year.

Market expectations drop sharply after Fed signals no emergency rate cuts

2 (50 bps) plunges to 3%33%

Following the January 28 FOMC meeting, market prices for emergency rate cuts in 2026 plummeted as the Fed's hawkish stance and commitment to a data-dependent approach reduced expectations for early easing, reflecting confidence in the Fed's cautious policy path.

Market expectations drop sharply for emergency Fed rate cuts after January FOMC hold

2 (50 bps) plunges to 8%63%

Following the January 28 FOMC meeting where rates were held steady, market prices for emergency rate cuts in 2026 dropped significantly, reflecting reduced expectations for such cuts. This market reaction was driven by the Fed's hawkish stance and commitment to data-dependent policy, signaling fewer cuts than previously anticipated.

President Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, calls for aggressive rate cuts

2 (50 bps) surges to 71%64%

President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh and public calls for substantial rate cuts increased market speculation about aggressive easing, temporarily boosting the probability of multiple rate cuts including emergency actions in 2026.

Fed holds rates steady at 3.5-3.75%, Bowman reiterates cautious approach

0 (0 bps) plunges to 5%16%

At the January FOMC meeting, the Committee voted to hold rates steady, with Bowman explaining the choice to move policy to neutral at a measured pace. This reinforced market uncertainty about the timing of cuts, tempering expectations.

Fed Governor Christopher J. Waller dissents favoring 25 bps cut at January FOMC meeting

1 (25 bps) plunges to 9%17%

Governor Waller dissented at the January 27-28 meeting, advocating a 25 basis point cut due to labor market weakness, highlighting internal Fed divisions but the committee overall held rates steady, tempering market expectations for cuts.

Fed Governor Waller dissents, favors 25 bps rate cut amid weak labor market

0 (0 bps) rises to 12%3%

Governor Waller dissented at the January FOMC meeting, advocating a 25 basis point cut due to labor market weakness, but the Committee maintained rates unchanged, reinforcing market expectations of no cuts in 2026.

Fed Governor Waller dissents for 25 bps rate cut amid weak labor market

Governor Christopher J. Waller dissented at the January FOMC meeting, advocating a 25 basis point cut due to a weak labor market and economic data indicating the need for further easing. This dissent reflected some internal Fed support for rate cuts but did not result in an actual cut, keeping market expectations uncertain.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller dissents favoring 25 bps rate cut at January FOMC meeting

Governor Waller dissented at the January 2026 FOMC meeting, advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut due to perceived labor market weakness and ongoing economic restrictions. His dissent highlighted internal Fed divisions but did not change the Committee's decision to hold rates steady.

Fed Vice Chair Bowman signals three rate cuts expected in 2026

Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman stated in a speech that her Summary of Economic Projections includes three rate cuts for 2026, highlighting a view that policy is moderately restrictive and inflation is moving closer to target, but the labor market remains fragile.

Governor Waller dissents favoring 25 basis point cut citing weak labor market

On January 30, 2026, Governor Christopher J. Waller dissented at the FOMC meeting, advocating a 25 basis point cut due to labor market weakness and the need for further easing. This dissent highlighted internal Fed divisions and influenced market expectations for limited cuts.

Fed Governor Christopher J. Waller dissents, advocating for 25 bps rate cut

Governor Waller dissented at the January 27-28 FOMC meeting, arguing that a 25 basis point rate cut was appropriate due to labor market weakness and ongoing inflation concerns. His dissent highlighted internal Fed divisions but did not lead to an actual rate cut at that meeting.

Fed Vice Chair Bowman signals three rate cuts expected in 2026

3 (75 bps) plunges to 16%22%

Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman indicated in speeches that the Fed anticipates three rate cuts in 2026, reflecting a view that policy is moderately restrictive and that easing will be gradual throughout the year.

Governor Waller dissents, advocating for 25 bps rate cut amid weak labor market

Governor Waller dissented at the recent FOMC meeting, arguing that a 25 basis point cut was appropriate due to labor market weakness, but the Committee did not follow this, keeping rates steady.

Fed Governor Waller dissents, calls for 25 bps rate cut amid weak labor market

0 (0 bps) drops to 14%12%

Governor Christopher J. Waller dissented at the January FOMC meeting, advocating a 25 basis point cut due to labor market weakness and economic data. However, the majority did not follow, and no cut was implemented, reflecting limited market impact on actual cuts.

Fed Governor Waller dissents advocating 25 bps rate cut amid weak labor market

Governor Christopher J. Waller dissented at the January 2026 FOMC meeting, arguing that a 25 basis point rate cut was appropriate due to labor market weakness and economic data. Despite his stance, the Fed maintained a cautious approach, keeping rates steady and limiting market expectations for cuts.

Fed Governor Waller dissents, calls for 25 bps rate cut citing labor market weakness

1 (25 bps) drops to 14%12%

Governor Christopher J. Waller dissented at the January FOMC meeting, advocating for a 25 basis point cut due to labor market fragility and the need for further easing. This highlighted internal Fed divisions on the pace of cuts in 2026.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% in first 2026 meeting

0 (0 bps) dips to 4%1%

The Fed paused its rate-cutting campaign, maintaining the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% amid inflation concerns and economic uncertainty, signaling a cautious approach and reducing market expectations for multiple cuts in 2026.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller dissents, calls for 25 bps rate cut

1 (25 bps) rises to 13%4%

Governor Waller dissented at the January FOMC meeting, advocating for a 25 basis point cut due to labor market weakness and ongoing economic restrictions, highlighting internal Fed debate on the pace of easing despite the official hold.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller Dissenting for Rate Cut at January Meeting

1 (25 bps) rises to 12%4%

Governor Waller publicly dissented at the January FOMC meeting, advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut due to perceived labor market weakness and the need for further easing. This highlighted internal Fed divisions on monetary policy direction.

Vice Chair Bowman signals expectation of three rate cuts in 2026

1 (25 bps) rises to 10%1%

Vice Chair Michelle Bowman expressed in a speech that she anticipates three rate cuts in 2026, highlighting internal Fed expectations for easing later in the year despite the current pause. This contributed to early market pricing of potential cuts.

FOMC holds rates steady at 3.5-3.75%, Bowman reiterates three cuts forecast

1 (25 bps) dips to 9%1%

The FOMC decided to keep rates unchanged at the January meeting, with Bowman reaffirming her view of three cuts in 2026. This reinforced market uncertainty but no immediate cuts were made.

Fed Governor Waller advocates for rate cut amid weak labor market

Governor Christopher J. Waller dissented at the January FOMC meeting, arguing that a 25 basis point rate cut was appropriate due to labor market weakness and economic data. Despite his stance, the Fed did not cut rates, maintaining a cautious approach that kept market expectations for cuts moderate.

Federal Reserve signals pause on rate cuts, holding rates steady in January 2026

0 (0 bps) rises to 5%2%

The Fed paused its rate-cutting campaign, holding rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% after three consecutive cuts in late 2025. Chair Powell described the policy stance as close to neutral, signaling a cautious approach and reducing market expectations for cuts in 2026.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady, pausing rate cuts in January 2026

The Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, signaling a pause in the rate-cutting campaign amid mounting uncertainty and inflation concerns. This move dampened market expectations for further cuts in 2026.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, signaling pause in cuts

0 (0 bps) rises to 7%4%

In January 2026, the Fed held rates steady after three consecutive cuts, signaling a pause in its rate-cutting campaign. Chair Powell described the policy stance as close to neutral, which led markets to reduce expectations for multiple cuts in 2026.

Federal Reserve signals end to aggressive rate-cutting campaign

The Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% in late January 2026, ending the streak of cuts and framing policy as close to neutral. This reinforced market expectations that rate cuts in 2026 would be limited or absent.

Federal Reserve pauses rate cuts, holding rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%

0 (0 bps) jumps to 16%13%

The Fed paused its rate-cutting campaign after three consecutive cuts, signaling a shift to a neutral stance amid solid economic expansion and persistent inflation. This decision reinforced market expectations for fewer or no cuts in 2026.

Fed signals pause on rate cuts, emphasizing neutral policy stance

The Fed paused its rate-cutting campaign in late January 2026, holding rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%. Chair Powell described the policy stance as close to neutral, signaling a watchful waiting approach amid ongoing inflation and labor market concerns. This reinforced market expectations of no immediate cuts.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% in January 2026 meeting

1 (25 bps) jumps to 12%5%

The FOMC decided to keep interest rates unchanged at the January meeting, with two dissenting votes favoring a quarter-point cut. This decision reflected the Fed's cautious stance amid mixed economic signals and set expectations for possibly one rate cut later in the year.

Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged in first 2026 meeting

0 (0 bps) rises to 5%1%

The Fed held rates steady at about 3.6% amid a split committee and ongoing inflation concerns, signaling no immediate cuts despite pressure from the White House. This reinforced market expectations of limited rate cuts in 2026, with most economists forecasting two cuts later in the year.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in January 2026 meeting

1 (25 bps) rises to 10%2%

The FOMC voted to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, pausing after three consecutive cuts in late 2025. Chair Jerome Powell emphasized a data-driven approach amid elevated inflation and a solid economy, reducing market expectations for multiple rate cuts in 2026.

Fed FOMC statement reveals divided committee with two dissenters favoring rate cut

The January 2026 FOMC statement showed a majority supporting holding rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, while two members dissented advocating a 0.25 percentage point cut, reflecting internal debate amid elevated inflation and solid economic growth.

FOMC holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%, signaling no immediate cuts

The Federal Reserve's FOMC voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%–3.75%, with Chair Jerome Powell indicating no rush to reduce rates further. This hawkish stance reduced market expectations for emergency rate cuts in 2026, causing a sharp drop in the probability of multiple cuts.

FOMC January 2026 meeting holds rates steady amid inflation and cooling job market

The Fed held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in January 2026, signaling a pause after the 2025 cuts. Market participants closely watched for signals on future cuts, but the Fed emphasized data dependency and uncertainty.

FOMC minutes reveal divided views on inflation and rate cuts

0 (0 bps) rises to 6%3%

Minutes from the January 27-28, 2026 FOMC meeting showed concern about persistent inflation and a divided committee, with some members preferring further cuts while others awaited more data. The Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, reflecting uncertainty about the timing of future cuts and inflation risks.

FOMC holds rates steady, signals possible rate cuts later in 2026

1 (25 bps) rises to 13%4%

The Federal Reserve's January 2026 meeting resulted in no change to the federal funds rate, maintaining the target range at 3.5% to 3.75%. Market expectations included one to two 25 basis point rate cuts later in the year, reflecting cautious optimism about inflation progress and economic resilience.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, signals cautious outlook for 2026

At its first FOMC meeting of 2026, the Fed decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, pausing after three consecutive rate cuts in 2025. The statement highlighted solid economic growth but persistent inflation above the 2% target and a fragile labor market. Two members dissented, favoring a 0.25% rate cut, but the majority emphasized a data-dependent approach, reducing market expectations for multiple cuts in 2026.

Federal Reserve maintains federal funds rate target range at 3.5 to 3.75 percent

0 (0 bps) jumps to 8%5%

The Federal Open Market Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5 to 3.75 percent, signaling no rate cuts at the start of 2026. This decision reinforced market expectations that the Fed would hold rates steady in the near term.

Fed Chair Powell emphasizes rate cut depends on inflation progress

0 (0 bps) rises to 10%1%

Powell stated that any interest rate cut in 2026 hinges on progress in taming inflation and economic data, signaling a cautious approach and influencing market pricing towards fewer cuts.

Fed Chair Powell advises successor to avoid political influence

During the January 28, 2026 press conference, Powell urged his successor to stay out of elected politics, highlighting the importance of Fed independence amid ongoing political pressures and investigations, which influenced market uncertainty about future rate paths.

FOMC holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, signaling no immediate cuts

2 (50 bps) plunges to 8%63%

At the January 28, 2026 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve voted to keep the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75%, with Chair Powell indicating the Committee was in no rush to reduce rates further. This hawkish stance significantly reduced market expectations for rate cuts in 2026, causing a sharp drop in the probability of emergency rate cuts.

Federal Reserve maintains interest rate paid on reserve balances at 3.65%

0 (0 bps) rises to 9%4%

The Fed's Board of Governors voted unanimously to keep the interest rate on reserve balances steady, signaling no rate cuts at the January meeting and maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%.

Federal Reserve Pauses Rate Cuts, Holding Benchmark Rate Steady

0 (0 bps) rises to 7%2%

The FOMC voted 10-2 to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, halting its streak of consecutive cuts and signaling a shift to neutral ground.

Federal Reserve issues Implementation Note confirming no rate cut in January

0 (0 bps) dips to 5%3%

The Federal Reserve Board announced operational details to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5 to 3.75 percent, reinforcing the decision to hold rates steady and signaling no immediate rate cuts. This supported market pricing of low probability for rate cuts in early 2026.

Fed projects only one rate cut in 2026 amid economic uncertainty

The Federal Reserve's summary of economic projections indicated a median forecast of just one 25 basis point cut in 2026, reflecting slower-than-expected progress on inflation and ongoing economic uncertainties, which led markets to reduce expectations for multiple cuts.

Fed Governor Christopher J. Waller dissents, advocating 25 bps rate cut due to labor market weakness

1 (25 bps) rises to 12%3%

Governor Waller dissented at the January FOMC meeting, arguing that a 25 basis point rate cut was appropriate given labor market weakness, though the majority held rates steady. This highlighted internal Fed debate but did not change policy, keeping market expectations moderate.

FOMC holds federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, signaling no immediate cuts

2 (50 bps) plunges to 8%63%

The Federal Open Market Committee voted to keep rates unchanged, with Chair Jerome Powell indicating no rush to reduce rates further, which sharply reduced market expectations for emergency rate cuts in early 2026.

FOMC holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% with dissenters favoring cuts

1 (25 bps) plunges to 10%16%

The FOMC decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, with dissenting votes from Governors Waller and Miran who preferred a 25 basis point cut, highlighting internal Fed divisions and concerns about labor market weakness and the need for easing.

FOMC holds federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% with dissenters favoring cut

At the January 28, 2026 meeting, the FOMC voted to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, pausing rate cuts amid solid economic growth and elevated inflation. Two members dissented, preferring a 25 basis point cut, signaling internal debate but no immediate easing. This decision reduced market expectations for multiple rate cuts in 2026.

Fed holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, signals data-dependent approach

0 (0 bps) plunges to 3%18%

At the January 28, 2026 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, pausing the rate cut cycle. Chair Powell emphasized a cautious, data-dependent approach with no rush to reduce rates further, which sharply reduced market expectations for emergency or additional cuts in 2026.

Fed officials divided on 2026 rate path, dissenters favor rate cut

1 (25 bps) rises to 12%4%

The FOMC vote was not unanimous; two officials dissented advocating for a 0.25 percentage point rate cut citing slowing economic momentum. This highlighted internal divisions and contributed to uncertainty about the number of cuts in 2026.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% in first 2026 FOMC meeting

0 (0 bps) rises to 7%4%

The Fed decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range, signaling a cautious, data-dependent approach amid solid economic activity and somewhat elevated inflation, which reduced expectations for immediate rate cuts.

Two FOMC members dissent, favoring 25 bps rate cut at January meeting

1 (25 bps) plunges to 9%17%

During the January 28 FOMC meeting, Stephen I. Miran and Christopher J. Waller dissented, advocating for a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate, highlighting internal Fed divisions and ongoing debate over the appropriate policy stance amid economic uncertainty.

Fed holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid cautious outlook

2 (50 bps) plunges to 8%63%

At the January 27-28 FOMC meeting, the Fed decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged, signaling a pause in rate cuts and emphasizing a data-dependent approach. This decision reduced market expectations for imminent rate cuts in 2026, causing a significant drop in the probability of multiple cuts.

Federal Reserve Board issues detailed implementation note confirming no rate cut

The Board of Governors voted unanimously to maintain interest rates and outlined operational details, reinforcing the Fed's stance of no immediate rate cuts in early 2026.

FOMC maintains federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%

0 (0 bps) jumps to 11%6%

The Federal Reserve Board voted unanimously to keep the interest rate paid on reserve balances unchanged, signaling no rate cuts at the January meeting and maintaining steady policy.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid hawkish signals

2 (50 bps) plunges to 8%63%

At the January 28, 2026 FOMC meeting, the Fed paused rate cuts, holding rates steady and signaling a data-dependent approach with no rush to reduce rates further. This hawkish stance sharply reduced market expectations for emergency rate cuts in early 2026.

Fed holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in January 2026 meeting

In its first meeting of 2026, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, emphasizing a data-dependent approach amid ongoing inflation concerns and a mixed labor market. The decision reflected internal divisions, with two members dissenting in favor of a rate cut.

FOMC holds federal funds rate steady at 3.5-3.75% in January meeting

The Federal Open Market Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5 to 3.75 percent, signaling a pause in rate changes. Market-based measures indicated expectations of one to two 25 basis point rate cuts in 2026, reflecting some anticipation of easing later in the year.

Federal Reserve keeps interest rate unchanged at about 3.6% in first 2026 meeting

0 (0 bps) rises to 8%4%

The Fed held rates steady at the January meeting, reflecting a split among policymakers between those wanting to hold until inflation drops and those favoring cuts to support hiring. This contributed to market uncertainty and a decline in expectations for multiple cuts in 2026.

Fed holds rates steady amid inflation and cooling job market

1 (25 bps) drops to 9%5%

At the January 2026 FOMC meeting, the Fed kept rates unchanged, signaling caution and the need for more data before cutting rates. This tempered expectations for immediate cuts in 2026.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady in January 2026 meeting

0 (0 bps) dips to 3%3%

The Fed decided to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, signaling a pause in easing and emphasizing data dependency for future moves. The decision reflected cautious optimism amid elevated uncertainty and mixed economic signals.

Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged in first 2026 meeting

0 (0 bps) rises to 4%1%

In the first FOMC meeting of 2026, the Fed held rates steady at about 3.6%, reflecting a split committee and ongoing uncertainty about further cuts. The market interpreted this as a sign that rate cuts in 2026 might be limited, reinforcing expectations of only one cut.

Markets await Federal Reserve decision amid high inflation and cooling job market

1 (25 bps) dips to 10%4%

Ahead of the January 2026 FOMC meeting, investors were uncertain whether the Fed would cut rates or hold steady due to persistent inflation and a cooling labor market, influencing market pricing for rate cuts.

Fed Vice Chair Bowman signals three rate cuts expected in 2026

1 (25 bps) drops to 14%12%

In a speech, Vice Chair Bowman indicated her Summary of Economic Projections included three rate cuts in 2026, reflecting expectations for easing monetary policy later in the year. This initially supported some market pricing for rate cuts but left timing uncertain.

Fed Vice Chair Bowman signals three rate cuts expected in 2026

3 (75 bps) drops to 24%14%

Vice Chair Michelle Bowman stated in a speech that her Summary of Economic Projections included three rate cuts in 2026, reflecting a view that policy was moderately restrictive and that cuts would be implemented gradually throughout the year. This set early market expectations for multiple cuts.

Fed Vice Chair Bowman highlights fragile labor market and inflation progress

Vice Chair Bowman emphasized the fragile labor market and inflation moving closer to the Fed's 2% goal, supporting the decision to maintain rates and signaling limited near-term cuts. This reinforced market expectations for minimal easing in 2026.

Fed Vice Chair Bowman highlights labor market fragility and supports rate cuts

In a January 16, 2026 speech, Vice Chair Michelle Bowman noted labor market fragility despite economic growth and supported further rate cuts to address inflation and employment risks. This added to market speculation about potential easing in 2026.

Fed Vice Chair Bowman signals cautious outlook amid fragile labor market

0 (0 bps) rises to 5%1%

Vice Chair Bowman highlighted the fragile labor market and inflation nearing the Fed's 2% goal, emphasizing a cautious approach to monetary policy with no immediate rate cuts planned. This reinforced market expectations for steady rates in early 2026.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell responds to DOJ subpoenas amid political pressure

Powell publicly addressed the Department of Justice subpoenas related to Fed building renovations, emphasizing the Fed's independence and commitment to data-driven policy despite political threats. This underscored the political tensions influencing market perceptions of Fed policy in 2026.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell publicly defends Fed independence amid DOJ investigation

Jerome Powell addressed a criminal investigation initiated by the Department of Justice related to Fed headquarters renovations, emphasizing the Fed's independence and commitment to data-driven policy, which reassured markets about the Fed's autonomy in rate decisions.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell addresses DOJ grand jury subpoenas amid political pressure

Powell publicly affirmed the Fed's independence in setting interest rates despite legal and political challenges, signaling a commitment to data-driven policy and likely contributing to market caution on rate cuts.

Congressional Budget Office projects Federal Reserve to cut rates in 2026

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office forecasted that the Fed would cut short-term rates in 2026, with the key rate settling at 3.4% by late 2028. This projection supported market expectations for at least one rate cut in 2026, though it also noted ongoing inflation and economic uncertainties.

Congressional Budget Office projects Federal Reserve to cut rates in 2026

The nonpartisan CBO released economic projections forecasting that the Federal Reserve would cut short-term rates in 2026, with the key interest rate settling at 3.4% by 2028. This report reinforced market expectations of limited easing amid economic uncertainty.

FOMC minutes reveal internal debate on pace of rate cuts in 2026

1 (25 bps) dips to 9%1%

Minutes from December FOMC meeting indicated the Fed is contemplating at least one rate cut depending on inflation trajectory, but committee members showed differing views on timing and extent, adding uncertainty to market expectations.

FOMC December minutes signal potential interest rate cuts ahead

Minutes from the December 2025 FOMC meeting indicated the Fed was contemplating at least one further rate cut in 2026, contingent on inflation trends. The report highlighted internal committee divisions and the impact of upcoming leadership changes, suggesting cautious optimism for a rate cut but no certainty, influencing market expectations.

Federal Reserve signals potential interest rate cuts contingent on inflation trajectory

1 (25 bps) jumps to 14%5%

Minutes from the December 2025 FOMC meeting revealed the Fed's contemplation of at least one rate cut in 2026 if inflation continues to moderate, reflecting a strategic approach to stimulate growth amid easing inflation pressures. This signaled to markets a possible easing cycle ahead, influencing cut expectations.

FOMC minutes reveal potential for at least one rate cut in 2026 amid inflation moderation

Minutes from the December 2025 FOMC meeting showed the Federal Reserve contemplating at least one further rate cut in 2026, contingent on inflation trends. Internal committee divisions and upcoming leadership changes added complexity to the policy outlook.

Federal Reserve projects only one rate cut for 2026 amid economic uncertainty

1 (25 bps) plunges to 4%22%

The Fed's summary of economic projections indicated a median forecast of just one 25 basis point cut in 2026, reflecting slower-than-expected progress on inflation and ongoing economic uncertainties. This tempered market expectations for multiple cuts and supported a cautious outlook.

Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25bps to 3.5%-3.75% amid economic uncertainty

1 (25 bps) drops to 14%12%

The Fed lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75% in December 2025, citing moderate economic expansion and elevated inflation. This cut marked the third consecutive 25bps reduction, setting the stage for market expectations of potential further cuts in 2026.

Fed ends 2025 with three rate cuts, markets price two more in 2026

2 (50 bps) drops to 28%8%

By the end of 2025, the Fed had cut rates three times by 25 basis points each, lowering the target range to 3.5%-3.75%. Market participants expected two additional 25bps cuts in 2026 amid economic challenges including inflation and a softening job market.

Federal Reserve signals one rate cut in 2026 amid inflation and labor market concerns

1 (25 bps) drops to 14%12%

At the December 2025 FOMC meeting, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75% and projected just one additional quarter-point cut in 2026, citing ongoing inflation above target and a cooling labor market. This set market expectations for a limited easing path in 2026.

Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points in December 2025

1 (25 bps) dips to 7%4%

The Fed announced a 25 bps rate cut in December 2025, marking the third consecutive cut after prior reductions in September and November. This final 2025 cut reflected concerns over slowing job growth and inflation pressures, setting the stage for market expectations of limited cuts in 2026.

Federal Reserve signals one rate cut in 2026 amid labor market cooling

1 (25 bps) dips to 10%2%

The Fed cut rates to 3.5%-3.75% and projected only one 25 basis point cut in 2026, citing concerns about labor market cooling and inflation pressures from tariffs. This cautious outlook anchored market expectations for minimal easing.

Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 bps in December 2025, final cut of the year

The Fed announced a 25 basis point rate cut in December 2025, the third consecutive cut, lowering the target range to 3.50%-3.75%. This reinforced market expectations for additional cuts in 2026.

Federal Reserve signals one rate cut in 2026 amid labor market cooling

1 (25 bps) drops to 14%12%

The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75% and projected only one additional cut in 2026, citing concerns about labor market cooling and inflation pressures from tariffs. This set market expectations for a limited easing path in 2026.

Federal Reserve cuts main rate to 3.5%-3.75%, forecasts one 2026 cut

1 (25 bps) rises to 16%4%