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icon for 2026年にFRBの利下げは何回ですか？
エコノミー·報酬200、4.5、50 （廃止）

2026年にFRBの利下げは何回ですか？

icon for 2026年にFRBの利下げは何回ですか？
エコノミー·報酬200、4.5、50 （廃止）

2026年にFRBの利下げは何回ですか？

0（0ベーシスポイント） 93.8%

1回（25ベーシスポイント） 4.1%

2（50ベーシスポイント） <1%

3回（75ベーシスポイント） <1%

Polymarket

$52,362,590 Vol.

0（0ベーシスポイント） 93.8%

1回（25ベーシスポイント） 4.1%

2（50ベーシスポイント） <1%

3回（75ベーシスポイント） <1%

Polymarket

$52,362,590 Vol.

0（0ベーシスポイント）

$8,301,376 Vol.

94%

1回（25ベーシスポイント）

$3,012,452 Vol.

4%

2（50ベーシスポイント）

$3,067,889 Vol.

1%

3回（75ベーシスポイント）

$2,830,588 Vol.

<1%

4回（100ベーシスポイント）

$2,709,885 Vol.

<1%

5回（125ベーシスポイント）

$2,968,729 Vol.

<1%

6回（150ベーシスポイント）

$4,218,764 Vol.

<1%

7回（175ベーシスポイント）

$3,519,587 Vol.

<1%

8回（200ベーシスポイント）

$3,288,353 Vol.

<1%

9回（225ベーシスポイント）

$4,284,247 Vol.

<1%

10（250ベーシスポイント）

$4,945,010 Vol.

<1%

11回（275ベーシスポイント）

$5,263,067 Vol.

<1%

12回以上（300bps以上）

$3,952,644 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.**Persistent inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with resilient economic growth and a solid labor market, have driven trader consensus toward zero rate cuts in 2026.** As of mid-September 2026, the federal funds rate target range stands at 3.50–3.75%, with the effective rate near 3.63%. Recent hotter-than-expected CPI prints, strong nonfarm payrolls, and hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh—emphasizing that “inflation is a choice”—have shifted market-implied odds sharply toward holding rates steady or even hiking at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. The Fed’s June dot plot already showed nearly half of participants projecting at least one hike by year-end, pushing cuts into 2027. This 93.8% implied probability for zero cuts reflects aggregated capital at risk pricing in a higher-for-longer stance. A rapid cooling in inflation data or unexpected labor-market softening could still reopen the door to easing later in the year.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
音量
$52,362,590
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

リゾルバー

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.**Persistent inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with resilient economic growth and a solid labor market, have driven trader consensus toward zero rate cuts in 2026.** As of mid-September 2026, the federal funds rate target range stands at 3.50–3.75%, with the effective rate near 3.63%. Recent hotter-than-expected CPI prints, strong nonfarm payrolls, and hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh—emphasizing that “inflation is a choice”—have shifted market-implied odds sharply toward holding rates steady or even hiking at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. The Fed’s June dot plot already showed nearly half of participants projecting at least one hike by year-end, pushing cuts into 2027. This 93.8% implied probability for zero cuts reflects aggregated capital at risk pricing in a higher-for-longer stance. A rapid cooling in inflation data or unexpected labor-market softening could still reopen the door to easing later in the year.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
音量
$52,362,590
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

リゾルバー

0x2F5e3684c...

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よくある質問

「2026年にFRBの利下げは何回ですか？」はPolymarket上の13個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「0（0ベーシスポイント）」で94%、次いで「1回（25ベーシスポイント）」が4%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、94¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に94%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「2026年にFRBの利下げは何回ですか？」は$52.4 millionの総取引量を生み出しています（Sep 29, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「2026年にFRBの利下げは何回ですか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている13個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「2026年にFRBの利下げは何回ですか？」の現在のフロントランナーは「0（0ベーシスポイント）」で94%であり、市場がこの結果に94%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「1回（25ベーシスポイント）」で4%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「2026年にFRBの利下げは何回ですか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。