The recent climb in the 10-year Treasury yield to the 5.00% area reflects resilient U.S. growth, a firmer labor market, and persistent inflation near 3.4% year-over-year, which have shifted market-implied odds toward Federal Reserve rate hikes rather than cuts through late 2026. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh and elevated term premium—driven by fiscal deficits, heavy AI-related corporate issuance, and geopolitical oil-price pressures—have lifted both real yields and inflation compensation. Traders are watching the September FOMC meeting, upcoming CPI releases, and any Treasury supply announcements for signals on whether the policy rate remains anchored near 3.5-3.75% or moves higher, which would further influence long-end pricing before 2027.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2027年までに10年国債利回りはどのくらい高くなりますか？
2027年までに10年国債利回りはどのくらい高くなりますか？
$445,273 Vol.
2026/12/30
5.1%
72%
5.2％
41%
5.5％
10%
5.7%
7%
6.0%
6%
$445,273 Vol.
5.1%
$5,950 Vol.
72%
5.2％
$64,183 Vol.
41%
5.5％
$25,960 Vol.
10%
5.7%
$15,523 Vol.
7%
6.0%
$12,556 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The recent climb in the 10-year Treasury yield to the 5.00% area reflects resilient U.S. growth, a firmer labor market, and persistent inflation near 3.4% year-over-year, which have shifted market-implied odds toward Federal Reserve rate hikes rather than cuts through late 2026. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh and elevated term premium—driven by fiscal deficits, heavy AI-related corporate issuance, and geopolitical oil-price pressures—have lifted both real yields and inflation compensation. Traders are watching the September FOMC meeting, upcoming CPI releases, and any Treasury supply announcements for signals on whether the policy rate remains anchored near 3.5-3.75% or moves higher, which would further influence long-end pricing before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
マーケット開始日： Sep 10, 2026, 11:28 AM ET
音量
$445,273終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Sep 10, 2026, 11:28 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The recent climb in the 10-year Treasury yield to the 5.00% area reflects resilient U.S. growth, a firmer labor market, and persistent inflation near 3.4% year-over-year, which have shifted market-implied odds toward Federal Reserve rate hikes rather than cuts through late 2026. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh and elevated term premium—driven by fiscal deficits, heavy AI-related corporate issuance, and geopolitical oil-price pressures—have lifted both real yields and inflation compensation. Traders are watching the September FOMC meeting, upcoming CPI releases, and any Treasury supply announcements for signals on whether the policy rate remains anchored near 3.5-3.75% or moves higher, which would further influence long-end pricing before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
音量
$445,273終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Sep 10, 2026, 11:28 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...The recent climb in the 10-year Treasury yield to the 5.00% area reflects resilient U.S. growth, a firmer labor market, and persistent inflation near 3.4% year-over-year, which have shifted market-implied odds toward Federal Reserve rate hikes rather than cuts through late 2026. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh and elevated term premium—driven by fiscal deficits, heavy AI-related corporate issuance, and geopolitical oil-price pressures—have lifted both real yields and inflation compensation. Traders are watching the September FOMC meeting, upcoming CPI releases, and any Treasury supply announcements for signals on whether the policy rate remains anchored near 3.5-3.75% or moves higher, which would further influence long-end pricing before 2027.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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