Strong economic data and contained inflation have driven the market-implied 92% probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027. Resilient labor market conditions, with unemployment near historic lows and steady nonfarm payroll gains, alongside core inflation readings close to the 2% target, support the FOMC's preference for measured policy adjustments rather than abrupt easing. Recent communications from Fed officials emphasize data dependence and rule out crisis-driven moves absent major shocks. Upcoming September 2026 employment and CPI releases could further solidify this view if trends hold. A sudden recession signal, major financial market stress, or geopolitical escalation could still shift odds, though current fundamentals point to continuity in the gradual rate path.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
8% 確率
$213,642 Vol.
$213,642 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
8% 確率
$213,642 Vol.
$213,642 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.Strong economic data and contained inflation have driven the market-implied 92% probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027. Resilient labor market conditions, with unemployment near historic lows and steady nonfarm payroll gains, alongside core inflation readings close to the 2% target, support the FOMC's preference for measured policy adjustments rather than abrupt easing. Recent communications from Fed officials emphasize data dependence and rule out crisis-driven moves absent major shocks. Upcoming September 2026 employment and CPI releases could further solidify this view if trends hold. A sudden recession signal, major financial market stress, or geopolitical escalation could still shift odds, though current fundamentals point to continuity in the gradual rate path.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
音量
$213,642終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.Strong economic data and contained inflation have driven the market-implied 92% probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027. Resilient labor market conditions, with unemployment near historic lows and steady nonfarm payroll gains, alongside core inflation readings close to the 2% target, support the FOMC's preference for measured policy adjustments rather than abrupt easing. Recent communications from Fed officials emphasize data dependence and rule out crisis-driven moves absent major shocks. Upcoming September 2026 employment and CPI releases could further solidify this view if trends hold. A sudden recession signal, major financial market stress, or geopolitical escalation could still shift odds, though current fundamentals point to continuity in the gradual rate path.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
音量
$213,642終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Strong economic data and contained inflation have driven the market-implied 92% probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027. Resilient labor market conditions, with unemployment near historic lows and steady nonfarm payroll gains, alongside core inflation readings close to the 2% target, support the FOMC's preference for measured policy adjustments rather than abrupt easing. Recent communications from Fed officials emphasize data dependence and rule out crisis-driven moves absent major shocks. Upcoming September 2026 employment and CPI releases could further solidify this view if trends hold. A sudden recession signal, major financial market stress, or geopolitical escalation could still shift odds, though current fundamentals point to continuity in the gradual rate path.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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