Strong August jobs data showing 162,000 payroll gains and steady 4.1% unemployment, alongside hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing unfinished inflation work, have lifted market-implied odds of a 25 basis point hike at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting to 30.5%. Traders price the 3.50-3.75% federal funds range as the baseline outcome at 67.5%, reflecting resilient labor conditions and energy-driven price pressures that have shifted some forecasts toward tightening, though core CPI trends near 2.5% and the pending August inflation release on September 11 continue to anchor expectations for a hold following the September 15-16 decision.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日据え置き 68%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 31%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ 3.6%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き上げ <1%
$1,417,437 Vol.
$1,417,437 Vol.
2026/10/28
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き下げ
<1%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
4%
据え置き
68%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
31%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き上げ
1%
据え置き 68%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 31%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ 3.6%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き上げ <1%
$1,417,437 Vol.
$1,417,437 Vol.
2026/10/28
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き下げ
$236,585 Vol.
<1%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
$545,170 Vol.
4%
据え置き
$223,772 Vol.
68%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
$254,048 Vol.
31%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き上げ
$157,861 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Strong August jobs data showing 162,000 payroll gains and steady 4.1% unemployment, alongside hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing unfinished inflation work, have lifted market-implied odds of a 25 basis point hike at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting to 30.5%. Traders price the 3.50-3.75% federal funds range as the baseline outcome at 67.5%, reflecting resilient labor conditions and energy-driven price pressures that have shifted some forecasts toward tightening, though core CPI trends near 2.5% and the pending August inflation release on September 11 continue to anchor expectations for a hold following the September 15-16 decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
音量
$1,417,437終了日
2026/10/28マーケット開始日
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Strong August jobs data showing 162,000 payroll gains and steady 4.1% unemployment, alongside hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing unfinished inflation work, have lifted market-implied odds of a 25 basis point hike at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting to 30.5%. Traders price the 3.50-3.75% federal funds range as the baseline outcome at 67.5%, reflecting resilient labor conditions and energy-driven price pressures that have shifted some forecasts toward tightening, though core CPI trends near 2.5% and the pending August inflation release on September 11 continue to anchor expectations for a hold following the September 15-16 decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$1,417,437終了日
2026/10/28マーケット開始日
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Strong August jobs data showing 162,000 payroll gains and steady 4.1% unemployment, alongside hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing unfinished inflation work, have lifted market-implied odds of a 25 basis point hike at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting to 30.5%. Traders price the 3.50-3.75% federal funds range as the baseline outcome at 67.5%, reflecting resilient labor conditions and energy-driven price pressures that have shifted some forecasts toward tightening, though core CPI trends near 2.5% and the pending August inflation release on September 11 continue to anchor expectations for a hold following the September 15-16 decision.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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