Recent FOMC projections from the September 15-16 meeting reinforced expectations for a higher-for-longer policy path, with markets pricing a 25 basis point hike that lifted the federal funds target to 3.75-4.00 percent amid sticky inflation and resilient growth. The 30-year Treasury yield, near 5.33-5.35 percent as of September 16, has climbed roughly 80 basis points year-to-date, driven primarily by elevated real yields from strong capital demand tied to AI infrastructure spending, persistent federal deficits increasing Treasury supply, and a wider term premium reflecting policy uncertainty. Inflation data through mid-2026, including headline CPI above 3 percent, has kept breakeven measures supported while limiting expectations for near-term easing. Traders will monitor upcoming CPI releases, labor market reports, and the December FOMC for signals on whether yields test levels above 5.5 percent before 2027.