The 5-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.61% as of September 9, 2026, remains elevated due to higher real rates driven by robust capital demand from AI infrastructure spending and sustained federal deficits near 5.8% of GDP. These factors, alongside a rising term premium, have pushed yields up over 25% year-over-year amid reduced safe-asset demand and policy uncertainty following hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole. Soaring oil prices have also revived inflation concerns, supporting market-implied odds of potential rate hikes rather than easing. Traders are monitoring upcoming FOMC decisions, labor market data, and Treasury issuance for shifts that could pressure the yield lower or reinforce the current range.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
2026/09/30
4.52％未満
45%
4.49％未満
46%
4.46%未満
44%
4.43%未満
39%
4.40%未満
43%
4.37%未満
33%
4.32％未満
24%
4.27%未満
19%
4.20％未満
14%
$1,941 Vol.
4.52％未満
$1,150 Vol.
45%
4.49％未満
$553 Vol.
46%
4.46%未満
$61 Vol.
44%
4.43%未満
$72 Vol.
39%
4.40%未満
$0 Vol.
43%
4.37%未満
$0 Vol.
33%
4.32％未満
$0 Vol.
24%
4.27%未満
$0 Vol.
19%
4.20％未満
$106 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 5-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.61% as of September 9, 2026, remains elevated due to higher real rates driven by robust capital demand from AI infrastructure spending and sustained federal deficits near 5.8% of GDP. These factors, alongside a rising term premium, have pushed yields up over 25% year-over-year amid reduced safe-asset demand and policy uncertainty following hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole. Soaring oil prices have also revived inflation concerns, supporting market-implied odds of potential rate hikes rather than easing. Traders are monitoring upcoming FOMC decisions, labor market data, and Treasury issuance for shifts that could pressure the yield lower or reinforce the current range.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
マーケット開始日： Sep 2, 2026, 8:45 PM ET
音量
$1,941終了日
2026/09/30マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 8:45 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 5-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.61% as of September 9, 2026, remains elevated due to higher real rates driven by robust capital demand from AI infrastructure spending and sustained federal deficits near 5.8% of GDP. These factors, alongside a rising term premium, have pushed yields up over 25% year-over-year amid reduced safe-asset demand and policy uncertainty following hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole. Soaring oil prices have also revived inflation concerns, supporting market-implied odds of potential rate hikes rather than easing. Traders are monitoring upcoming FOMC decisions, labor market data, and Treasury issuance for shifts that could pressure the yield lower or reinforce the current range.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
音量
$1,941終了日
2026/09/30マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 8:45 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...The 5-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.61% as of September 9, 2026, remains elevated due to higher real rates driven by robust capital demand from AI infrastructure spending and sustained federal deficits near 5.8% of GDP. These factors, alongside a rising term premium, have pushed yields up over 25% year-over-year amid reduced safe-asset demand and policy uncertainty following hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole. Soaring oil prices have also revived inflation concerns, supporting market-implied odds of potential rate hikes rather than easing. Traders are monitoring upcoming FOMC decisions, labor market data, and Treasury issuance for shifts that could pressure the yield lower or reinforce the current range.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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