Persistent above-target inflation, reinforced by supply shocks from Middle East tensions and resilient labor market data, underpins the 73.5% market-implied odds for at least one Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026. August nonfarm payrolls surprised to the upside at 162,000 while unemployment held near 4.1%, and year-over-year PCE inflation remains around 3.4–3.7%. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks stressing “work to do” on price stability have shifted trader consensus, with futures now pricing meaningful tightening risk at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Key near-term catalysts include the September 11 CPI release and the dot plot update, which will clarify whether the FOMC views current 3.50–3.75% policy as sufficiently restrictive.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
74% 確率
$8,781,019 Vol.
$8,781,019 Vol.
2026/12/08
はい
74% 確率
$8,781,019 Vol.
$8,781,019 Vol.
2026/12/08
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent above-target inflation, reinforced by supply shocks from Middle East tensions and resilient labor market data, underpins the 73.5% market-implied odds for at least one Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026. August nonfarm payrolls surprised to the upside at 162,000 while unemployment held near 4.1%, and year-over-year PCE inflation remains around 3.4–3.7%. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks stressing “work to do” on price stability have shifted trader consensus, with futures now pricing meaningful tightening risk at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Key near-term catalysts include the September 11 CPI release and the dot plot update, which will clarify whether the FOMC views current 3.50–3.75% policy as sufficiently restrictive.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
音量
$8,781,019終了日
2026/12/09マーケット開始日
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent above-target inflation, reinforced by supply shocks from Middle East tensions and resilient labor market data, underpins the 73.5% market-implied odds for at least one Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026. August nonfarm payrolls surprised to the upside at 162,000 while unemployment held near 4.1%, and year-over-year PCE inflation remains around 3.4–3.7%. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks stressing “work to do” on price stability have shifted trader consensus, with futures now pricing meaningful tightening risk at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Key near-term catalysts include the September 11 CPI release and the dot plot update, which will clarify whether the FOMC views current 3.50–3.75% policy as sufficiently restrictive.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$8,781,019終了日
2026/12/09マーケット開始日
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Persistent above-target inflation, reinforced by supply shocks from Middle East tensions and resilient labor market data, underpins the 73.5% market-implied odds for at least one Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026. August nonfarm payrolls surprised to the upside at 162,000 while unemployment held near 4.1%, and year-over-year PCE inflation remains around 3.4–3.7%. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks stressing “work to do” on price stability have shifted trader consensus, with futures now pricing meaningful tightening risk at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Key near-term catalysts include the September 11 CPI release and the dot plot update, which will clarify whether the FOMC views current 3.50–3.75% policy as sufficiently restrictive.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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