Recent FOMC communications and June 2026 economic projections highlight persistent inflation pressures as the main driver behind the tight contest between no change (47.5%) and a 25 basis point hike (43.5%) at the December meeting. Headline and core PCE readings remain elevated near 3.3–3.7% for 2026 amid energy and supply shocks, while the median dot plot shifted to 3.8% for year-end, with nine participants favoring at least one hike. Solid GDP growth, stable unemployment near 4.1%, and a data-dependent stance under Chair Warsh have kept trader-implied odds balanced, with limited pricing for cuts. The September 15–16 FOMC meeting and incoming labor and inflation releases will provide key updates ahead of December resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日変更なし 48%
25 bps increase 44%
25 bps decrease 6.5%
50+ bps increase 2.5%
$569,204 Vol.
$569,204 Vol.
2026/12/09
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
6%
変更なし
48%
25 bps increase
44%
50+ bps increase
3%
変更なし 48%
25 bps increase 44%
25 bps decrease 6.5%
50+ bps increase 2.5%
$569,204 Vol.
$569,204 Vol.
2026/12/09
50+ bps decrease
$92,690 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$144,402 Vol.
6%
変更なし
$101,819 Vol.
48%
25 bps increase
$139,606 Vol.
44%
50+ bps increase
$90,687 Vol.
3%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent FOMC communications and June 2026 economic projections highlight persistent inflation pressures as the main driver behind the tight contest between no change (47.5%) and a 25 basis point hike (43.5%) at the December meeting. Headline and core PCE readings remain elevated near 3.3–3.7% for 2026 amid energy and supply shocks, while the median dot plot shifted to 3.8% for year-end, with nine participants favoring at least one hike. Solid GDP growth, stable unemployment near 4.1%, and a data-dependent stance under Chair Warsh have kept trader-implied odds balanced, with limited pricing for cuts. The September 15–16 FOMC meeting and incoming labor and inflation releases will provide key updates ahead of December resolution.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
音量
$569,204終了日
2026/12/09マーケット開始日
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent FOMC communications and June 2026 economic projections highlight persistent inflation pressures as the main driver behind the tight contest between no change (47.5%) and a 25 basis point hike (43.5%) at the December meeting. Headline and core PCE readings remain elevated near 3.3–3.7% for 2026 amid energy and supply shocks, while the median dot plot shifted to 3.8% for year-end, with nine participants favoring at least one hike. Solid GDP growth, stable unemployment near 4.1%, and a data-dependent stance under Chair Warsh have kept trader-implied odds balanced, with limited pricing for cuts. The September 15–16 FOMC meeting and incoming labor and inflation releases will provide key updates ahead of December resolution.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$569,204終了日
2026/12/09マーケット開始日
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Recent FOMC communications and June 2026 economic projections highlight persistent inflation pressures as the main driver behind the tight contest between no change (47.5%) and a 25 basis point hike (43.5%) at the December meeting. Headline and core PCE readings remain elevated near 3.3–3.7% for 2026 amid energy and supply shocks, while the median dot plot shifted to 3.8% for year-end, with nine participants favoring at least one hike. Solid GDP growth, stable unemployment near 4.1%, and a data-dependent stance under Chair Warsh have kept trader-implied odds balanced, with limited pricing for cuts. The September 15–16 FOMC meeting and incoming labor and inflation releases will provide key updates ahead of December resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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