The 5-year Treasury yield stood at 4.62% as of September 9, 2026, up from 4.57% the prior session and well above year-ago levels near 3.61%. Hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, citing persistent PCE inflation near 3.7% and AI-driven productivity gains that could lift the neutral rate, have driven market-implied odds of a September FOMC hike higher while boosting real yields. Sticky core inflation, resilient labor market data, and lingering effects from the Iran-related oil shock have further supported the move, outweighing any cooling in breakeven measures. Traders now focus on the September 10 PPI, September 11 CPI, and September 16 FOMC decision with updated projections as key near-term catalysts that could shift the yield path for the remainder of the month.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日4.90%
14%
4.83%
20%
4.78%
29%
4.73%
38%
4.70%
48%
4.67%
56%
4.64%
69%
$8,702 Vol.
4.90%
14%
4.83%
20%
4.78%
29%
4.73%
38%
4.70%
48%
4.67%
56%
4.64%
69%
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
マーケット開始日: Sep 2, 2026, 9:06 PM ET
リゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
リゾルバー
0x65070BE91...The 5-year Treasury yield stood at 4.62% as of September 9, 2026, up from 4.57% the prior session and well above year-ago levels near 3.61%. Hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, citing persistent PCE inflation near 3.7% and AI-driven productivity gains that could lift the neutral rate, have driven market-implied odds of a September FOMC hike higher while boosting real yields. Sticky core inflation, resilient labor market data, and lingering effects from the Iran-related oil shock have further supported the move, outweighing any cooling in breakeven measures. Traders now focus on the September 10 PPI, September 11 CPI, and September 16 FOMC decision with updated projections as key near-term catalysts that could shift the yield path for the remainder of the month.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日

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