Recent inflation readings, including a hotter-than-expected August PPI and resilient core CPI near 2.5%, combined with Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on restoring price stability, have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.96% as of September 13. Markets now price roughly 70-90% odds of a 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, lifting short-rate expectations and the term premium. Elevated fiscal supply, persistent energy price pressures, and a higher-for-longer policy path have pushed yields up nearly 80 basis points from February lows. Traders will watch upcoming jobs, retail sales, and housing data for signs that could ease or reinforce rate-hike bets and influence whether the yield can retest sub-4.8% levels before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$259,232 Vol.
2026/12/30
3.9％未満
12%
3.8％未満
9%
3.7％未満
6%
3.6%未満
5%
3.5％未満
5%
3.0%未満
4%
2.0%未満
2%
1.0％未満
2%
$259,232 Vol.
3.9％未満
$50,833 Vol.
12%
3.8％未満
$56,060 Vol.
9%
3.7％未満
$32,668 Vol.
6%
3.6%未満
$6,185 Vol.
5%
3.5％未満
$39,404 Vol.
5%
3.0%未満
$1,187 Vol.
4%
2.0%未満
$564 Vol.
2%
1.0％未満
$40,572 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent inflation readings, including a hotter-than-expected August PPI and resilient core CPI near 2.5%, combined with Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on restoring price stability, have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.96% as of September 13. Markets now price roughly 70-90% odds of a 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, lifting short-rate expectations and the term premium. Elevated fiscal supply, persistent energy price pressures, and a higher-for-longer policy path have pushed yields up nearly 80 basis points from February lows. Traders will watch upcoming jobs, retail sales, and housing data for signs that could ease or reinforce rate-hike bets and influence whether the yield can retest sub-4.8% levels before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
マーケット開始日： Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
音量
$259,232終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent inflation readings, including a hotter-than-expected August PPI and resilient core CPI near 2.5%, combined with Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on restoring price stability, have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.96% as of September 13. Markets now price roughly 70-90% odds of a 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, lifting short-rate expectations and the term premium. Elevated fiscal supply, persistent energy price pressures, and a higher-for-longer policy path have pushed yields up nearly 80 basis points from February lows. Traders will watch upcoming jobs, retail sales, and housing data for signs that could ease or reinforce rate-hike bets and influence whether the yield can retest sub-4.8% levels before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
音量
$259,232終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Recent inflation readings, including a hotter-than-expected August PPI and resilient core CPI near 2.5%, combined with Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on restoring price stability, have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.96% as of September 13. Markets now price roughly 70-90% odds of a 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, lifting short-rate expectations and the term premium. Elevated fiscal supply, persistent energy price pressures, and a higher-for-longer policy path have pushed yields up nearly 80 basis points from February lows. Traders will watch upcoming jobs, retail sales, and housing data for signs that could ease or reinforce rate-hike bets and influence whether the yield can retest sub-4.8% levels before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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