Recent economic data releases and evolving inflation trajectories are shaping trader sentiment around the September-to-December 2026 FOMC meetings, with the Pause-Pause-Pause path at 29.5% reflecting broad expectations for steady policy amid mixed signals. Labor market resilience, measured by unemployment rates and nonfarm payrolls, alongside core PCE inflation trends, remains the key swing factor distinguishing hike sequences from extended pauses. Stronger-than-expected growth or persistent price pressures could shift probabilities toward Hike-Pause-Pause or Hike-Hike-Pause outcomes, while cooling indicators would reinforce the current pause consensus. Market-implied odds embed uncertainty ahead of upcoming data prints and the Fed's policy communications, with no single path exceeding 30% as participants price in a data-dependent stance.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日ポーズ・ポーズ・ポーズ 30%
利上げ–据え置き–据え置き 15%
引き上げ–引き上げ–据え置き 13%
ポーズ・利上げ・利上げ 10.7%
$15,084 Vol.
$15,084 Vol.
2026/12/09
利上げ→据え置き→利上げ
11%
利上げ–据え置き–据え置き
15%
連続利上げ
6%
引き上げ–引き上げ–据え置き
13%
据え置き・据え置き・利上げ
6%
ポーズ・ポーズ・ポーズ
30%
ポーズ・利上げ・利上げ
11%
据え置き–利上げ–据え置き
8%
その他
7%
ポーズ・ポーズ・ポーズ 30%
利上げ–据え置き–据え置き 15%
引き上げ–引き上げ–据え置き 13%
ポーズ・利上げ・利上げ 10.7%
$15,084 Vol.
$15,084 Vol.
2026/12/09
利上げ→据え置き→利上げ
$329 Vol.
11%
利上げ–据え置き–据え置き
$569 Vol.
15%
連続利上げ
$231 Vol.
6%
引き上げ–引き上げ–据え置き
$474 Vol.
13%
据え置き・据え置き・利上げ
$623 Vol.
6%
ポーズ・ポーズ・ポーズ
$11,754 Vol.
30%
ポーズ・利上げ・利上げ
$364 Vol.
11%
据え置き–利上げ–据え置き
$446 Vol.
8%
その他
$294 Vol.
7%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent economic data releases and evolving inflation trajectories are shaping trader sentiment around the September-to-December 2026 FOMC meetings, with the Pause-Pause-Pause path at 29.5% reflecting broad expectations for steady policy amid mixed signals. Labor market resilience, measured by unemployment rates and nonfarm payrolls, alongside core PCE inflation trends, remains the key swing factor distinguishing hike sequences from extended pauses. Stronger-than-expected growth or persistent price pressures could shift probabilities toward Hike-Pause-Pause or Hike-Hike-Pause outcomes, while cooling indicators would reinforce the current pause consensus. Market-implied odds embed uncertainty ahead of upcoming data prints and the Fed's policy communications, with no single path exceeding 30% as participants price in a data-dependent stance.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
マーケット開始日： Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
音量
$15,084終了日
2026/12/09マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent economic data releases and evolving inflation trajectories are shaping trader sentiment around the September-to-December 2026 FOMC meetings, with the Pause-Pause-Pause path at 29.5% reflecting broad expectations for steady policy amid mixed signals. Labor market resilience, measured by unemployment rates and nonfarm payrolls, alongside core PCE inflation trends, remains the key swing factor distinguishing hike sequences from extended pauses. Stronger-than-expected growth or persistent price pressures could shift probabilities toward Hike-Pause-Pause or Hike-Hike-Pause outcomes, while cooling indicators would reinforce the current pause consensus. Market-implied odds embed uncertainty ahead of upcoming data prints and the Fed's policy communications, with no single path exceeding 30% as participants price in a data-dependent stance.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
音量
$15,084終了日
2026/12/09マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Recent economic data releases and evolving inflation trajectories are shaping trader sentiment around the September-to-December 2026 FOMC meetings, with the Pause-Pause-Pause path at 29.5% reflecting broad expectations for steady policy amid mixed signals. Labor market resilience, measured by unemployment rates and nonfarm payrolls, alongside core PCE inflation trends, remains the key swing factor distinguishing hike sequences from extended pauses. Stronger-than-expected growth or persistent price pressures could shift probabilities toward Hike-Pause-Pause or Hike-Hike-Pause outcomes, while cooling indicators would reinforce the current pause consensus. Market-implied odds embed uncertainty ahead of upcoming data prints and the Fed's policy communications, with no single path exceeding 30% as participants price in a data-dependent stance.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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