The Federal Reserve’s September 16 decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%—its first hike in three years—along with the dot plot signaling additional tightening, has anchored 10-year Treasury yields near 4.95% after an intraday peak above 5.04%. August CPI held steady at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.4%, while oil-price volatility and geopolitical risks have kept inflation expectations elevated. The resulting repricing of the policy path has produced the steepest three-week yield rise since May, pushing the 2s10s spread to roughly 26 basis points. With only two weeks left in September, further downside in yields hinges on softer upcoming prints such as industrial production and any moderation in energy prices that could alter the market-implied rate path priced into Treasury futures.