Recent polling from Quaest shows a technical triple tie at the top for São Paulo's two Senate seats, with Marina Silva (Rede) and Guilherme Derrite (PP) at 14% each and Simone Tebet (PSB) at 12% in combined vote intentions, followed by André do Prado (PL) at 7%. High undecided shares near 26% and blank/null responses around 19% sustain volatility in a two-vote system. The right-wing pairing of Derrite and Prado benefits from unified backing by Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and PL allies, while left-leaning support splits between the Haddad-aligned ex-ministers Marina and Tebet. Elevated rejection levels for some frontrunners and the start of free electoral airtime in late August have kept positioning fluid. Further consolidation on the right or shifts in undecided voters ahead of the October 4 vote could separate the second-place contender.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAndré do Prado 35.9%
Marina Silva 26%
Simone Tebet 15%
Guilherme Derrite 14%
$45,357 Vol.
$45,357 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
André do Prado
36%
Marina Silva
26%
Simone Tebet
15%
Guilherme Derrite
14%
Salles
3%
Marcio Alves
1%
Ednelson Cesaretti
<1%
Geraldo Rufino
<1%
Petter Maahs
<1%
Weller Gonçalves
<1%
William Teixeira
<1%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
<1%
Maíra de Souza
<1%
Soninha Francine
<1%
André do Prado 35.9%
Marina Silva 26%
Simone Tebet 15%
Guilherme Derrite 14%
$45,357 Vol.
$45,357 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
André do Prado
$6,227 Vol.
36%
Marina Silva
$10,865 Vol.
26%
Simone Tebet
$10,541 Vol.
15%
Guilherme Derrite
$7,259 Vol.
14%
Salles
$5,220 Vol.
3%
Marcio Alves
$411 Vol.
1%
Ednelson Cesaretti
$580 Vol.
<1%
Geraldo Rufino
$528 Vol.
<1%
Petter Maahs
$757 Vol.
<1%
Weller Gonçalves
$813 Vol.
<1%
William Teixeira
$686 Vol.
<1%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
$457 Vol.
<1%
Maíra de Souza
$406 Vol.
<1%
Soninha Francine
$608 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from Quaest shows a technical triple tie at the top for São Paulo's two Senate seats, with Marina Silva (Rede) and Guilherme Derrite (PP) at 14% each and Simone Tebet (PSB) at 12% in combined vote intentions, followed by André do Prado (PL) at 7%. High undecided shares near 26% and blank/null responses around 19% sustain volatility in a two-vote system. The right-wing pairing of Derrite and Prado benefits from unified backing by Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and PL allies, while left-leaning support splits between the Haddad-aligned ex-ministers Marina and Tebet. Elevated rejection levels for some frontrunners and the start of free electoral airtime in late August have kept positioning fluid. Further consolidation on the right or shifts in undecided voters ahead of the October 4 vote could separate the second-place contender.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ET
Volume
$45,357End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from Quaest shows a technical triple tie at the top for São Paulo's two Senate seats, with Marina Silva (Rede) and Guilherme Derrite (PP) at 14% each and Simone Tebet (PSB) at 12% in combined vote intentions, followed by André do Prado (PL) at 7%. High undecided shares near 26% and blank/null responses around 19% sustain volatility in a two-vote system. The right-wing pairing of Derrite and Prado benefits from unified backing by Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and PL allies, while left-leaning support splits between the Haddad-aligned ex-ministers Marina and Tebet. Elevated rejection levels for some frontrunners and the start of free electoral airtime in late August have kept positioning fluid. Further consolidation on the right or shifts in undecided voters ahead of the October 4 vote could separate the second-place contender.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$45,357End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from Quaest shows a technical triple tie at the top for São Paulo's two Senate seats, with Marina Silva (Rede) and Guilherme Derrite (PP) at 14% each and Simone Tebet (PSB) at 12% in combined vote intentions, followed by André do Prado (PL) at 7%. High undecided shares near 26% and blank/null responses around 19% sustain volatility in a two-vote system. The right-wing pairing of Derrite and Prado benefits from unified backing by Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and PL allies, while left-leaning support splits between the Haddad-aligned ex-ministers Marina and Tebet. Elevated rejection levels for some frontrunners and the start of free electoral airtime in late August have kept positioning fluid. Further consolidation on the right or shifts in undecided voters ahead of the October 4 vote could separate the second-place contender.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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