Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 2nd Place
Politics·Brazil

Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 2nd Place

icon for Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 2nd Place
Politics·Brazil

Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 2nd Place

Marcelo Crivella 54.6%

Benedita da Silva 16%

Carlos Jordy 16%

Pedro Paulo 12.3%

Polymarket

$53,384 Vol.

Marcelo Crivella 54.6%

Benedita da Silva 16%

Carlos Jordy 16%

Pedro Paulo 12.3%

Polymarket

$53,384 Vol.

icon for Marcelo Crivella

Marcelo Crivella

$7,811 Vol.

55%

icon for Benedita da Silva

Benedita da Silva

$9,522 Vol.

16%

icon for Carlos Jordy

Carlos Jordy

$11,143 Vol.

16%

icon for Pedro Paulo

Pedro Paulo

$7,807 Vol.

12%

icon for Carlos Portinho

Carlos Portinho

$5,369 Vol.

4%

icon for Monica Benicio

Monica Benicio

$2,052 Vol.

1%

icon for Waguinho

Waguinho

$1,319 Vol.

<1%

icon for Marcos Dias

Marcos Dias

$896 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ó Clemente

Ó Clemente

$1,292 Vol.

<1%

icon for André Monteiro

André Monteiro

$2,185 Vol.

<1%

icon for Helio Secco

Helio Secco

$1,128 Vol.

<1%

icon for Luciano Mattos

Luciano Mattos

$597 Vol.

<1%

icon for Luiz Eugenio

Luiz Eugenio

$608 Vol.

<1%

icon for Michelly Xavier

Michelly Xavier

$601 Vol.

<1%

icon for Paula Falcão

Paula Falcão

$520 Vol.

<1%

icon for Vinicius Benevides

Vinicius Benevides

$533 Vol.

<1%

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent Quaest and Paraná Pesquisas surveys show Benedita da Silva (PT) leading overall while Marcelo Crivella (Republicanos) holds a narrow numerical edge for second place at 8–20.5%, ahead of Carlos Jordy (PL), Pedro Paulo (PSD), and Carlos Portinho (PL) who sit in a technical tie around 6–17.8%. The tight contest for the second Senate seat stems from vote fragmentation among right-leaning and center-right contenders, including PL allies of Flávio Bolsonaro, contrasted with Benedita’s stronger consolidation of PT and allied support. Crivella’s incremental polling gains since July, alongside high undecided and blank ballots near 25–37%, sustain trader consensus around his positioning. Upcoming Real Time Big Data fieldwork and any shifts in campaign alliances or turnout patterns could alter separation among the clustered contenders before the October 4 election.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$53,384
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent Quaest and Paraná Pesquisas surveys show Benedita da Silva (PT) leading overall while Marcelo Crivella (Republicanos) holds a narrow numerical edge for second place at 8–20.5%, ahead of Carlos Jordy (PL), Pedro Paulo (PSD), and Carlos Portinho (PL) who sit in a technical tie around 6–17.8%. The tight contest for the second Senate seat stems from vote fragmentation among right-leaning and center-right contenders, including PL allies of Flávio Bolsonaro, contrasted with Benedita’s stronger consolidation of PT and allied support. Crivella’s incremental polling gains since July, alongside high undecided and blank ballots near 25–37%, sustain trader consensus around his positioning. Upcoming Real Time Big Data fieldwork and any shifts in campaign alliances or turnout patterns could alter separation among the clustered contenders before the October 4 election.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$53,384
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Related

icon for Will Benedita da Silva win the most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?

Will Benedita da Silva win the most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?

67%
icon for Will Manuela D'Ávila win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Sul Senate election?

Will Manuela D'Ávila win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Sul Senate election?

32%
icon for Will Zenaide Maia win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election?

Will Zenaide Maia win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election?

51%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 2nd Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 16 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Marcelo Crivella" at 55%, followed by "Benedita da Silva" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 55¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 55% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 2nd Place" has generated $53.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 2nd Place," browse the 16 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 2nd Place" is "Marcelo Crivella" at 55%, meaning the market assigns a 55% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Benedita da Silva" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 2nd Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.