Recent polls show the Parti Conservateur du Québec holding steady near 15% support, with strength concentrated in the Quebec City region where it leads or contends in multiple ridings. First-past-the-post dynamics, competition from the CAQ and PQ in key battlegrounds, and modest gains elsewhere keep projected seat totals variable between roughly five and fifteen. Candidate withdrawals over controversial statements and a stabilizing campaign with limited further movement in voter intentions have reinforced this range. Traders reflect these factors through closely matched probabilities for eight to thirteen seats, consistent with regional patterns and historical challenges converting popular vote into broader representation ahead of the October 5 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated8-10 30%
11-13 26%
5-7 13%
<5 7%
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
<5
7%
5-7
13%
8-10
30%
11-13
26%
14-16
7%
17+
6%
8-10 30%
11-13 26%
5-7 13%
<5 7%
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
<5
$1,920 Vol.
7%
5-7
$739 Vol.
13%
8-10
$1,154 Vol.
30%
11-13
$1,261 Vol.
26%
14-16
$914 Vol.
7%
17+
$906 Vol.
6%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polls show the Parti Conservateur du Québec holding steady near 15% support, with strength concentrated in the Quebec City region where it leads or contends in multiple ridings. First-past-the-post dynamics, competition from the CAQ and PQ in key battlegrounds, and modest gains elsewhere keep projected seat totals variable between roughly five and fifteen. Candidate withdrawals over controversial statements and a stabilizing campaign with limited further movement in voter intentions have reinforced this range. Traders reflect these factors through closely matched probabilities for eight to thirteen seats, consistent with regional patterns and historical challenges converting popular vote into broader representation ahead of the October 5 vote.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ET
Volume
$6,893End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polls show the Parti Conservateur du Québec holding steady near 15% support, with strength concentrated in the Quebec City region where it leads or contends in multiple ridings. First-past-the-post dynamics, competition from the CAQ and PQ in key battlegrounds, and modest gains elsewhere keep projected seat totals variable between roughly five and fifteen. Candidate withdrawals over controversial statements and a stabilizing campaign with limited further movement in voter intentions have reinforced this range. Traders reflect these factors through closely matched probabilities for eight to thirteen seats, consistent with regional patterns and historical challenges converting popular vote into broader representation ahead of the October 5 vote.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$6,893End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls show the Parti Conservateur du Québec holding steady near 15% support, with strength concentrated in the Quebec City region where it leads or contends in multiple ridings. First-past-the-post dynamics, competition from the CAQ and PQ in key battlegrounds, and modest gains elsewhere keep projected seat totals variable between roughly five and fifteen. Candidate withdrawals over controversial statements and a stabilizing campaign with limited further movement in voter intentions have reinforced this range. Traders reflect these factors through closely matched probabilities for eight to thirteen seats, consistent with regional patterns and historical challenges converting popular vote into broader representation ahead of the October 5 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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