Recent polling averages place the Parti Québécois at roughly 28-29% support ahead of the October 5 election, translating into seat projections centered around 46-52 MNAs with wide simulation ranges reflecting many tight races against the CAQ. This positioning drives trader emphasis on outcomes below 50 seats, as the party’s francophone concentration yields seat efficiency gains yet falls short of the 64-seat majority threshold amid a fragmented federalist vote split among the CAQ, Liberals, and Conservatives. Latest surveys from Léger, Nanos, Research Co., and others show PQ support holding steady without the surge needed for a clear majority path, while CAQ erosion and Liberal rebound have narrowed the gap in key ridings. These dynamics, combined with the first-past-the-post system’s sensitivity to regional swings, underpin current market pricing for PQ seat totals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<50 42%
55-59 14%
50-54 13%
65-69 6.8%
$16,695 Vol.
$16,695 Vol.
Oct 5, 2026
<50
42%
50-54
13%
55-59
11%
60-64
12%
65-69
7%
70-74
6%
75-79
5%
80+
4%
<50 42%
55-59 14%
50-54 13%
65-69 6.8%
$16,695 Vol.
$16,695 Vol.
Oct 5, 2026
<50
$5,128 Vol.
42%
50-54
$1,395 Vol.
13%
55-59
$852 Vol.
11%
60-64
$993 Vol.
12%
65-69
$3,282 Vol.
7%
70-74
$2,651 Vol.
6%
75-79
$1,290 Vol.
5%
80+
$1,104 Vol.
4%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling averages place the Parti Québécois at roughly 28-29% support ahead of the October 5 election, translating into seat projections centered around 46-52 MNAs with wide simulation ranges reflecting many tight races against the CAQ. This positioning drives trader emphasis on outcomes below 50 seats, as the party’s francophone concentration yields seat efficiency gains yet falls short of the 64-seat majority threshold amid a fragmented federalist vote split among the CAQ, Liberals, and Conservatives. Latest surveys from Léger, Nanos, Research Co., and others show PQ support holding steady without the surge needed for a clear majority path, while CAQ erosion and Liberal rebound have narrowed the gap in key ridings. These dynamics, combined with the first-past-the-post system’s sensitivity to regional swings, underpin current market pricing for PQ seat totals.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
Volume
$16,695End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling averages place the Parti Québécois at roughly 28-29% support ahead of the October 5 election, translating into seat projections centered around 46-52 MNAs with wide simulation ranges reflecting many tight races against the CAQ. This positioning drives trader emphasis on outcomes below 50 seats, as the party’s francophone concentration yields seat efficiency gains yet falls short of the 64-seat majority threshold amid a fragmented federalist vote split among the CAQ, Liberals, and Conservatives. Latest surveys from Léger, Nanos, Research Co., and others show PQ support holding steady without the surge needed for a clear majority path, while CAQ erosion and Liberal rebound have narrowed the gap in key ridings. These dynamics, combined with the first-past-the-post system’s sensitivity to regional swings, underpin current market pricing for PQ seat totals.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$16,695End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages place the Parti Québécois at roughly 28-29% support ahead of the October 5 election, translating into seat projections centered around 46-52 MNAs with wide simulation ranges reflecting many tight races against the CAQ. This positioning drives trader emphasis on outcomes below 50 seats, as the party’s francophone concentration yields seat efficiency gains yet falls short of the 64-seat majority threshold amid a fragmented federalist vote split among the CAQ, Liberals, and Conservatives. Latest surveys from Léger, Nanos, Research Co., and others show PQ support holding steady without the surge needed for a clear majority path, while CAQ erosion and Liberal rebound have narrowed the gap in key ridings. These dynamics, combined with the first-past-the-post system’s sensitivity to regional swings, underpin current market pricing for PQ seat totals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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