**Russia's Supreme Court removed Yabloko from the federal party-list ballot on August 10, 2026, after the Central Election Commission had registered the party in late July.** The ruling followed a lawsuit by the pro-Kremlin Rodina party and upheld prior administrative barriers that had already disqualified numerous Yabloko candidates. Yabloko, the only registered party openly advocating a ceasefire under its “For Peace and Freedom” slogan, had shown modest gains in some independent and private surveys (reaching 5–6% nationally or higher in Moscow and St. Petersburg), though official polls placed it well below the 5% proportional threshold. This brief surge in visibility, particularly among younger and urban voters, prompted the court action. With the federal list excluded, Yabloko cannot compete for the proportional seats that determine whether a party clears the Duma threshold. The September 18–20 elections are now days away, and any remaining single-mandate candidacies do not affect the proportional outcome referenced by the market. The near-certain trader consensus on “No” (99.4%) reflects this confirmed disqualification. The only remaining procedural avenues—further appeals or supervisory review—are widely viewed as unlikely to restore the list before voting concludes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRussia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
<1% chance
$615,437 Vol.
$615,437 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
<1% chance
$615,437 Vol.
$615,437 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.**Russia's Supreme Court removed Yabloko from the federal party-list ballot on August 10, 2026, after the Central Election Commission had registered the party in late July.** The ruling followed a lawsuit by the pro-Kremlin Rodina party and upheld prior administrative barriers that had already disqualified numerous Yabloko candidates.
Yabloko, the only registered party openly advocating a ceasefire under its “For Peace and Freedom” slogan, had shown modest gains in some independent and private surveys (reaching 5–6% nationally or higher in Moscow and St. Petersburg), though official polls placed it well below the 5% proportional threshold. This brief surge in visibility, particularly among younger and urban voters, prompted the court action.
With the federal list excluded, Yabloko cannot compete for the proportional seats that determine whether a party clears the Duma threshold. The September 18–20 elections are now days away, and any remaining single-mandate candidacies do not affect the proportional outcome referenced by the market.
The near-certain trader consensus on “No” (99.4%) reflects this confirmed disqualification. The only remaining procedural avenues—further appeals or supervisory review—are widely viewed as unlikely to restore the list before voting concludes.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ET
Volume
$615,437End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.**Russia's Supreme Court removed Yabloko from the federal party-list ballot on August 10, 2026, after the Central Election Commission had registered the party in late July.** The ruling followed a lawsuit by the pro-Kremlin Rodina party and upheld prior administrative barriers that had already disqualified numerous Yabloko candidates.
Yabloko, the only registered party openly advocating a ceasefire under its “For Peace and Freedom” slogan, had shown modest gains in some independent and private surveys (reaching 5–6% nationally or higher in Moscow and St. Petersburg), though official polls placed it well below the 5% proportional threshold. This brief surge in visibility, particularly among younger and urban voters, prompted the court action.
With the federal list excluded, Yabloko cannot compete for the proportional seats that determine whether a party clears the Duma threshold. The September 18–20 elections are now days away, and any remaining single-mandate candidacies do not affect the proportional outcome referenced by the market.
The near-certain trader consensus on “No” (99.4%) reflects this confirmed disqualification. The only remaining procedural avenues—further appeals or supervisory review—are widely viewed as unlikely to restore the list before voting concludes.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$615,437End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Russia's Supreme Court removed Yabloko from the federal party-list ballot on August 10, 2026, after the Central Election Commission had registered the party in late July.** The ruling followed a lawsuit by the pro-Kremlin Rodina party and upheld prior administrative barriers that had already disqualified numerous Yabloko candidates. Yabloko, the only registered party openly advocating a ceasefire under its “For Peace and Freedom” slogan, had shown modest gains in some independent and private surveys (reaching 5–6% nationally or higher in Moscow and St. Petersburg), though official polls placed it well below the 5% proportional threshold. This brief surge in visibility, particularly among younger and urban voters, prompted the court action. With the federal list excluded, Yabloko cannot compete for the proportional seats that determine whether a party clears the Duma threshold. The September 18–20 elections are now days away, and any remaining single-mandate candidacies do not affect the proportional outcome referenced by the market. The near-certain trader consensus on “No” (99.4%) reflects this confirmed disqualification. The only remaining procedural avenues—further appeals or supervisory review—are widely viewed as unlikely to restore the list before voting concludes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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