Recent polling averages project Shas at 7–9 Knesset seats, consistent with a vote share clustered near the 6–8% range amid tight bins in the market. The ultra-Orthodox Sephardi party’s positioning reflects ongoing competition within the right-wing bloc, where some traditional supporters have shifted toward Otzma Yehudit or Likud over the unresolved Haredi draft exemption issue. Shas has countered by highlighting IDF reservists on its slate and launching outreach to Zionist and military voters while Aryeh Deri retains the top spot. Haredi turnout, final campaign messaging on conscription, and coalition negotiations after the October 27 election could still shift results within the narrow polling band reflected in current trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<6% 46%
6-7% 28%
8-9% 19%
7-8% 15%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<6%
46%
6-7%
30%
7-8%
21%
8-9%
19%
9%+
16%
<6% 46%
6-7% 28%
8-9% 19%
7-8% 15%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<6%
$136 Vol.
46%
6-7%
$161 Vol.
30%
7-8%
$93 Vol.
21%
8-9%
$20 Vol.
19%
9%+
$92 Vol.
16%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Shas party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Shas's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Shas passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling averages project Shas at 7–9 Knesset seats, consistent with a vote share clustered near the 6–8% range amid tight bins in the market. The ultra-Orthodox Sephardi party’s positioning reflects ongoing competition within the right-wing bloc, where some traditional supporters have shifted toward Otzma Yehudit or Likud over the unresolved Haredi draft exemption issue. Shas has countered by highlighting IDF reservists on its slate and launching outreach to Zionist and military voters while Aryeh Deri retains the top spot. Haredi turnout, final campaign messaging on conscription, and coalition negotiations after the October 27 election could still shift results within the narrow polling band reflected in current trader consensus.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Shas party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Shas's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Shas passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Shas party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Shas's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Shas passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$502End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 4:17 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Shas party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Shas's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Shas passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling averages project Shas at 7–9 Knesset seats, consistent with a vote share clustered near the 6–8% range amid tight bins in the market. The ultra-Orthodox Sephardi party’s positioning reflects ongoing competition within the right-wing bloc, where some traditional supporters have shifted toward Otzma Yehudit or Likud over the unresolved Haredi draft exemption issue. Shas has countered by highlighting IDF reservists on its slate and launching outreach to Zionist and military voters while Aryeh Deri retains the top spot. Haredi turnout, final campaign messaging on conscription, and coalition negotiations after the October 27 election could still shift results within the narrow polling band reflected in current trader consensus.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Shas party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Shas's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Shas passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Shas party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Shas's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Shas passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Volume
$502End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 4:17 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages project Shas at 7–9 Knesset seats, consistent with a vote share clustered near the 6–8% range amid tight bins in the market. The ultra-Orthodox Sephardi party’s positioning reflects ongoing competition within the right-wing bloc, where some traditional supporters have shifted toward Otzma Yehudit or Likud over the unresolved Haredi draft exemption issue. Shas has countered by highlighting IDF reservists on its slate and launching outreach to Zionist and military voters while Aryeh Deri retains the top spot. Haredi turnout, final campaign messaging on conscription, and coalition negotiations after the October 27 election could still shift results within the narrow polling band reflected in current trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions