Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for Quebec General Election: CAQ # Seats?
World·Main Election

Quebec General Election: CAQ # Seats?

icon for Quebec General Election: CAQ # Seats?
World·Main Election

Quebec General Election: CAQ # Seats?

30+ 45%

20-24 28%

25-29 27%

15-19 2.6%

Polymarket

$15,647 Vol.

30+ 45%

20-24 28%

25-29 27%

15-19 2.6%

Polymarket

$15,647 Vol.

<5

$815 Vol.

<1%

5-9

$1,311 Vol.

<1%

10-14

$2,989 Vol.

1%

15-19

$1,708 Vol.

3%

20-24

$3,287 Vol.

28%

25-29

$1,527 Vol.

27%

30+

$4,013 Vol.

45%

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered. If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**Recent polling and seat projections position the CAQ for a competitive but reduced seat total in the October 5, 2026 Quebec general election.** Under new leader Christine Fréchette, the party has rebounded from spring lows near 9-17% to a stable 23-24% in late August and early September surveys from Léger and Pallas Data, trailing the PQ (29%) while ahead of or level with the PLQ (20-22%). Aggregators such as 338Canada project roughly 24 CAQ seats (wide range 6-45) amid a fragmented legislature, with the PQ favored for a plurality or slim majority and the CAQ retaining pockets of strength in Montreal suburbs and other francophone areas. High undecideds earlier in the cycle, regional three-way races, and voter desire for change have contributed to volatility, supporting trader consensus around the 20-29 and 30+ seat ranges as the most probable outcomes.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.

If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered. If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$15,647
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered. If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**Recent polling and seat projections position the CAQ for a competitive but reduced seat total in the October 5, 2026 Quebec general election.** Under new leader Christine Fréchette, the party has rebounded from spring lows near 9-17% to a stable 23-24% in late August and early September surveys from Léger and Pallas Data, trailing the PQ (29%) while ahead of or level with the PLQ (20-22%). Aggregators such as 338Canada project roughly 24 CAQ seats (wide range 6-45) amid a fragmented legislature, with the PQ favored for a plurality or slim majority and the CAQ retaining pockets of strength in Montreal suburbs and other francophone areas. High undecideds earlier in the cycle, regional three-way races, and voter desire for change have contributed to volatility, supporting trader consensus around the 20-29 and 30+ seat ranges as the most probable outcomes.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.

If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered. If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$15,647
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Related

icon for Will the PCQ win 8-10 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?

Will the PCQ win 8-10 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?

30%
icon for Will the PQ win fewer than 50 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?

Will the PQ win fewer than 50 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?

62%
icon for Will the PLQ win 28-31 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?

Will the PLQ win 28-31 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?

35%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Quebec General Election: CAQ # Seats?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "30+" at 45%, followed by "20-24" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 45¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Quebec General Election: CAQ # Seats?" has generated $15.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 27, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Quebec General Election: CAQ # Seats?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Quebec General Election: CAQ # Seats?" is "30+" at 45%, meaning the market assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "20-24" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Quebec General Election: CAQ # Seats?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.