Recent Novus polling shows Sweden's centre-left bloc, anchored by the Social Democrats, holding a narrow lead over the right-wing bloc just days before the September 13 election, with the margin between the two sides now around 2–3 percentage points after earlier double-digit gaps. The Liberals' surge above the 4% parliamentary threshold has strengthened the incumbent coalition's position and reduced the likelihood of a decisive Social Democrats victory. Aggregated surveys place Socialdemokraterna support near 27–29%, ahead of the Sweden Democrats by roughly 7–9 points. This tightening dynamic, driven by late-campaign shifts on economic and security issues, aligns with trader consensus favoring a Social Democrats margin of victory in the 7–10% band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedS 7-10% 49%
S 4-7% 22%
S 10-13% 18%
S <4% 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
S <4%
6%
S 4-7%
22%
S 7-10%
49%
S 10-13%
18%
S 13%+
6%
Another Party Wins
3%
S 7-10% 49%
S 4-7% 22%
S 10-13% 18%
S <4% 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
S <4%
$1,190 Vol.
6%
S 4-7%
$14 Vol.
22%
S 7-10%
$388 Vol.
49%
S 10-13%
$29 Vol.
18%
S 13%+
$134 Vol.
6%
Another Party Wins
$78 Vol.
3%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes received in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the party that wins the most valid votes and the party that wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages of valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the party in question.
If the Social Democratic Party (S) ties with one or more parties for the most valid votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for S.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten, https://www.val.se/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.Recent Novus polling shows Sweden's centre-left bloc, anchored by the Social Democrats, holding a narrow lead over the right-wing bloc just days before the September 13 election, with the margin between the two sides now around 2–3 percentage points after earlier double-digit gaps. The Liberals' surge above the 4% parliamentary threshold has strengthened the incumbent coalition's position and reduced the likelihood of a decisive Social Democrats victory. Aggregated surveys place Socialdemokraterna support near 27–29%, ahead of the Sweden Democrats by roughly 7–9 points. This tightening dynamic, driven by late-campaign shifts on economic and security issues, aligns with trader consensus favoring a Social Democrats margin of victory in the 7–10% band.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes received in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the party that wins the most valid votes and the party that wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages of valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the party in question.
If the Social Democratic Party (S) ties with one or more parties for the most valid votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for S.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten, https://www.val.se/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes received in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the party that wins the most valid votes and the party that wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages of valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the party in question.
If the Social Democratic Party (S) ties with one or more parties for the most valid votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for S.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten, https://www.val.se/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 4:58 PM ET
Volume
$1,833End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes received in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the party that wins the most valid votes and the party that wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages of valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the party in question.
If the Social Democratic Party (S) ties with one or more parties for the most valid votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for S.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten, https://www.val.se/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.Recent Novus polling shows Sweden's centre-left bloc, anchored by the Social Democrats, holding a narrow lead over the right-wing bloc just days before the September 13 election, with the margin between the two sides now around 2–3 percentage points after earlier double-digit gaps. The Liberals' surge above the 4% parliamentary threshold has strengthened the incumbent coalition's position and reduced the likelihood of a decisive Social Democrats victory. Aggregated surveys place Socialdemokraterna support near 27–29%, ahead of the Sweden Democrats by roughly 7–9 points. This tightening dynamic, driven by late-campaign shifts on economic and security issues, aligns with trader consensus favoring a Social Democrats margin of victory in the 7–10% band.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes received in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the party that wins the most valid votes and the party that wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages of valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the party in question.
If the Social Democratic Party (S) ties with one or more parties for the most valid votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for S.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten, https://www.val.se/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes received in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the party that wins the most valid votes and the party that wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages of valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the party in question.
If the Social Democratic Party (S) ties with one or more parties for the most valid votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for S.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten, https://www.val.se/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Volume
$1,833End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Novus polling shows Sweden's centre-left bloc, anchored by the Social Democrats, holding a narrow lead over the right-wing bloc just days before the September 13 election, with the margin between the two sides now around 2–3 percentage points after earlier double-digit gaps. The Liberals' surge above the 4% parliamentary threshold has strengthened the incumbent coalition's position and reduced the likelihood of a decisive Social Democrats victory. Aggregated surveys place Socialdemokraterna support near 27–29%, ahead of the Sweden Democrats by roughly 7–9 points. This tightening dynamic, driven by late-campaign shifts on economic and security issues, aligns with trader consensus favoring a Social Democrats margin of victory in the 7–10% band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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