**No** holds a 95.2% implied probability because impeachment of an STF justice requires Senate initiation and a two-thirds vote (54 of 81 senators), a threshold raised by a 2025 Gilmar Mendes ruling, with no successful removals in modern Brazilian history. Over 100 pending requests, concentrated on Alexandre de Moraes amid recent revelations of communications with banker Daniel Vorcaro and internal court conflicts, have increased pressure but remain stalled by Senate President Davi Alcolumbre, who has declined to advance them ahead of the October 2026 elections. Current Senate dynamics and Lula-aligned majorities continue to block progress. Post-election shifts in Senate composition or major new scandals could theoretically alter the outlook, though the compressed timeline before 2027 and entrenched procedural safeguards limit realistic prospects for removal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5% chance
$88,176 Vol.
$88,176 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% chance
$88,176 Vol.
$88,176 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**No** holds a 95.2% implied probability because impeachment of an STF justice requires Senate initiation and a two-thirds vote (54 of 81 senators), a threshold raised by a 2025 Gilmar Mendes ruling, with no successful removals in modern Brazilian history. Over 100 pending requests, concentrated on Alexandre de Moraes amid recent revelations of communications with banker Daniel Vorcaro and internal court conflicts, have increased pressure but remain stalled by Senate President Davi Alcolumbre, who has declined to advance them ahead of the October 2026 elections. Current Senate dynamics and Lula-aligned majorities continue to block progress. Post-election shifts in Senate composition or major new scandals could theoretically alter the outlook, though the compressed timeline before 2027 and entrenched procedural safeguards limit realistic prospects for removal.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Volume
$88,176End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**No** holds a 95.2% implied probability because impeachment of an STF justice requires Senate initiation and a two-thirds vote (54 of 81 senators), a threshold raised by a 2025 Gilmar Mendes ruling, with no successful removals in modern Brazilian history. Over 100 pending requests, concentrated on Alexandre de Moraes amid recent revelations of communications with banker Daniel Vorcaro and internal court conflicts, have increased pressure but remain stalled by Senate President Davi Alcolumbre, who has declined to advance them ahead of the October 2026 elections. Current Senate dynamics and Lula-aligned majorities continue to block progress. Post-election shifts in Senate composition or major new scandals could theoretically alter the outlook, though the compressed timeline before 2027 and entrenched procedural safeguards limit realistic prospects for removal.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$88,176End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**No** holds a 95.2% implied probability because impeachment of an STF justice requires Senate initiation and a two-thirds vote (54 of 81 senators), a threshold raised by a 2025 Gilmar Mendes ruling, with no successful removals in modern Brazilian history. Over 100 pending requests, concentrated on Alexandre de Moraes amid recent revelations of communications with banker Daniel Vorcaro and internal court conflicts, have increased pressure but remain stalled by Senate President Davi Alcolumbre, who has declined to advance them ahead of the October 2026 elections. Current Senate dynamics and Lula-aligned majorities continue to block progress. Post-election shifts in Senate composition or major new scandals could theoretically alter the outlook, though the compressed timeline before 2027 and entrenched procedural safeguards limit realistic prospects for removal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions