Recent polling from early September shows Cid Gomes leading consolidated intentions for one of Ceará’s two Senate seats, leaving a tight contest for second place between Luizianne Lins and Capitão Wagner. Multiple surveys place the pair within a few points of each other at roughly 20 percent each, with Alcides Fernandes trailing but still registering double digits in some samples. High numbers of undecided and blank responses, combined with voters’ ability to split tickets across two candidates, keep the second-vacancy outcome fluid. Traders appear to view Luizianne’s positioning slightly ahead of Wagner’s on current data, while assigning lower probabilities to Cid finishing second or to any of the remaining registered candidates closing the gap before the October 4 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLuizianne 38%
Capitão Wagner 36%
Cid Gomes 19%
Alcides Fernandes 4.7%
$36,440 Vol.
$36,440 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Luizianne
43%
Capitão Wagner
36%
Cid Gomes
19%
Alcides Fernandes
5%
Lino Alves
1%
Guilherme Theophilo
<1%
Catarina Matos
<1%
Reginaldo
<1%
Luizianne 38%
Capitão Wagner 36%
Cid Gomes 19%
Alcides Fernandes 4.7%
$36,440 Vol.
$36,440 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Luizianne
$11,611 Vol.
43%
Capitão Wagner
$14,298 Vol.
36%
Cid Gomes
$4,901 Vol.
19%
Alcides Fernandes
$1,095 Vol.
5%
Lino Alves
$942 Vol.
1%
Guilherme Theophilo
$820 Vol.
<1%
Catarina Matos
$1,538 Vol.
<1%
Reginaldo
$1,234 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from early September shows Cid Gomes leading consolidated intentions for one of Ceará’s two Senate seats, leaving a tight contest for second place between Luizianne Lins and Capitão Wagner. Multiple surveys place the pair within a few points of each other at roughly 20 percent each, with Alcides Fernandes trailing but still registering double digits in some samples. High numbers of undecided and blank responses, combined with voters’ ability to split tickets across two candidates, keep the second-vacancy outcome fluid. Traders appear to view Luizianne’s positioning slightly ahead of Wagner’s on current data, while assigning lower probabilities to Cid finishing second or to any of the remaining registered candidates closing the gap before the October 4 vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ET
Volume
$36,440End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from early September shows Cid Gomes leading consolidated intentions for one of Ceará’s two Senate seats, leaving a tight contest for second place between Luizianne Lins and Capitão Wagner. Multiple surveys place the pair within a few points of each other at roughly 20 percent each, with Alcides Fernandes trailing but still registering double digits in some samples. High numbers of undecided and blank responses, combined with voters’ ability to split tickets across two candidates, keep the second-vacancy outcome fluid. Traders appear to view Luizianne’s positioning slightly ahead of Wagner’s on current data, while assigning lower probabilities to Cid finishing second or to any of the remaining registered candidates closing the gap before the October 4 vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$36,440End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from early September shows Cid Gomes leading consolidated intentions for one of Ceará’s two Senate seats, leaving a tight contest for second place between Luizianne Lins and Capitão Wagner. Multiple surveys place the pair within a few points of each other at roughly 20 percent each, with Alcides Fernandes trailing but still registering double digits in some samples. High numbers of undecided and blank responses, combined with voters’ ability to split tickets across two candidates, keep the second-vacancy outcome fluid. Traders appear to view Luizianne’s positioning slightly ahead of Wagner’s on current data, while assigning lower probabilities to Cid finishing second or to any of the remaining registered candidates closing the gap before the October 4 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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