Recent polling in São Paulo, Brazil's largest electoral college, shows Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) leading or in a technical tie with President Lula (PT) in first-round vote intentions, with the senator at 31-37% and Lula at 30-33% across Quaest and Futura surveys conducted in early September. This positioning stems from Flávio's official Liberal Party nomination, his September 7 Independence Day rally on Avenida Paulista drawing tens of thousands, and campaign emphasis on judicial accountability and opposition to the current administration. Lower-polling candidates such as Augusto Cury (6-8%) and others trail significantly, aligning with trader consensus reflected in current market pricing that favors Flávio's first-place outcome in the October 4 first round.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlavio Bolsonaro 89%
Lula 8.2%
Samara 1.0%
Zema 1.0%
$21,457 Vol.
$21,457 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
89%
Lula
8%
Samara
1%
Zema
1%
Renan Santos
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 89%
Lula 8.2%
Samara 1.0%
Zema 1.0%
$21,457 Vol.
$21,457 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$6,890 Vol.
89%
Lula
$7,529 Vol.
8%
Samara
$423 Vol.
1%
Zema
$593 Vol.
1%
Renan Santos
$1,360 Vol.
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$543 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$714 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$1,189 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$427 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$426 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$421 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$426 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$517 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling in São Paulo, Brazil's largest electoral college, shows Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) leading or in a technical tie with President Lula (PT) in first-round vote intentions, with the senator at 31-37% and Lula at 30-33% across Quaest and Futura surveys conducted in early September. This positioning stems from Flávio's official Liberal Party nomination, his September 7 Independence Day rally on Avenida Paulista drawing tens of thousands, and campaign emphasis on judicial accountability and opposition to the current administration. Lower-polling candidates such as Augusto Cury (6-8%) and others trail significantly, aligning with trader consensus reflected in current market pricing that favors Flávio's first-place outcome in the October 4 first round.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET
Volume
$21,457End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling in São Paulo, Brazil's largest electoral college, shows Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) leading or in a technical tie with President Lula (PT) in first-round vote intentions, with the senator at 31-37% and Lula at 30-33% across Quaest and Futura surveys conducted in early September. This positioning stems from Flávio's official Liberal Party nomination, his September 7 Independence Day rally on Avenida Paulista drawing tens of thousands, and campaign emphasis on judicial accountability and opposition to the current administration. Lower-polling candidates such as Augusto Cury (6-8%) and others trail significantly, aligning with trader consensus reflected in current market pricing that favors Flávio's first-place outcome in the October 4 first round.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$21,457End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling in São Paulo, Brazil's largest electoral college, shows Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) leading or in a technical tie with President Lula (PT) in first-round vote intentions, with the senator at 31-37% and Lula at 30-33% across Quaest and Futura surveys conducted in early September. This positioning stems from Flávio's official Liberal Party nomination, his September 7 Independence Day rally on Avenida Paulista drawing tens of thousands, and campaign emphasis on judicial accountability and opposition to the current administration. Lower-polling candidates such as Augusto Cury (6-8%) and others trail significantly, aligning with trader consensus reflected in current market pricing that favors Flávio's first-place outcome in the October 4 first round.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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