Lula holds a commanding lead in Paraíba polling for the October 4 first round, reflecting consistent regional backing in the Northeast and sustained government approval ratings near 55-61 percent in recent state surveys. AtlasIntel and Quaest data from late August and early September show the incumbent ahead by 23-29 points over Flávio Bolsonaro, with other names such as Augusto Cury and Renan Santos trailing far behind. Higher rejection rates for the main challenger and limited movement among undecided voters have reinforced trader consensus on an early finish. A narrow national tightening or sharp late shifts in Paraíba turnout and preference could narrow the gap, though no such developments have appeared in the latest state-level results.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 97.2%
Escritor Augusto Cury <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Renan Santos <1%
$38,581 Vol.
$38,581 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
97%
Escritor Augusto Cury
1%
Edmilson Costa
1%
Renan Santos
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Samara
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
1%
Clariana Barao
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
1%
Flavio Bolsonaro
1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Zema
<1%
Lula 97.2%
Escritor Augusto Cury <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Renan Santos <1%
$38,581 Vol.
$38,581 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$31,727 Vol.
97%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$791 Vol.
1%
Edmilson Costa
$544 Vol.
1%
Renan Santos
$544 Vol.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$544 Vol.
1%
Samara
$544 Vol.
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$544 Vol.
1%
Clariana Barao
$544 Vol.
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$544 Vol.
1%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$565 Vol.
1%
Hertz Dias
$596 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$544 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$549 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraíba, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds a commanding lead in Paraíba polling for the October 4 first round, reflecting consistent regional backing in the Northeast and sustained government approval ratings near 55-61 percent in recent state surveys. AtlasIntel and Quaest data from late August and early September show the incumbent ahead by 23-29 points over Flávio Bolsonaro, with other names such as Augusto Cury and Renan Santos trailing far behind. Higher rejection rates for the main challenger and limited movement among undecided voters have reinforced trader consensus on an early finish. A narrow national tightening or sharp late shifts in Paraíba turnout and preference could narrow the gap, though no such developments have appeared in the latest state-level results.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraíba, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ET
Volume
$38,581End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraíba, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds a commanding lead in Paraíba polling for the October 4 first round, reflecting consistent regional backing in the Northeast and sustained government approval ratings near 55-61 percent in recent state surveys. AtlasIntel and Quaest data from late August and early September show the incumbent ahead by 23-29 points over Flávio Bolsonaro, with other names such as Augusto Cury and Renan Santos trailing far behind. Higher rejection rates for the main challenger and limited movement among undecided voters have reinforced trader consensus on an early finish. A narrow national tightening or sharp late shifts in Paraíba turnout and preference could narrow the gap, though no such developments have appeared in the latest state-level results.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraíba, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$38,581End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula holds a commanding lead in Paraíba polling for the October 4 first round, reflecting consistent regional backing in the Northeast and sustained government approval ratings near 55-61 percent in recent state surveys. AtlasIntel and Quaest data from late August and early September show the incumbent ahead by 23-29 points over Flávio Bolsonaro, with other names such as Augusto Cury and Renan Santos trailing far behind. Higher rejection rates for the main challenger and limited movement among undecided voters have reinforced trader consensus on an early finish. A narrow national tightening or sharp late shifts in Paraíba turnout and preference could narrow the gap, though no such developments have appeared in the latest state-level results.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions