Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Mato Grosso first-round voting intentions according to multiple state-level polls conducted in recent months, reflecting the Liberal Party candidate’s strength in an agricultural region that has consistently favored right-leaning platforms on security, fiscal policy, and reduced environmental licensing. His positioning as the standard-bearer for Bolsonarismo, following his father’s endorsement and ineligibility, has consolidated support among conservative and rural voters. Other contenders, including Lula, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos, trail significantly in the same surveys. Late developments such as shifts in national polling averages, unexpected endorsements consolidating fragmented right-wing support, or unforeseen legal or health events could narrow the gap, though current state data shows limited room for such movement before the October 4 first round.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlavio Bolsonaro 96%
Lula 2.4%
Zema <1%
Renan Santos <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
96%
Lula
2%
Zema
1%
Renan Santos
1%
Edmilson Costa
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Samara
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 96%
Lula 2.4%
Zema <1%
Renan Santos <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$3,545 Vol.
96%
Lula
$1,490 Vol.
2%
Zema
$608 Vol.
1%
Renan Santos
$360 Vol.
1%
Edmilson Costa
$470 Vol.
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$485 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$386 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$390 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$444 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$403 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$396 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$439 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$561 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Mato Grosso first-round voting intentions according to multiple state-level polls conducted in recent months, reflecting the Liberal Party candidate’s strength in an agricultural region that has consistently favored right-leaning platforms on security, fiscal policy, and reduced environmental licensing. His positioning as the standard-bearer for Bolsonarismo, following his father’s endorsement and ineligibility, has consolidated support among conservative and rural voters. Other contenders, including Lula, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos, trail significantly in the same surveys. Late developments such as shifts in national polling averages, unexpected endorsements consolidating fragmented right-wing support, or unforeseen legal or health events could narrow the gap, though current state data shows limited room for such movement before the October 4 first round.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ET
Volume
$9,978End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Mato Grosso first-round voting intentions according to multiple state-level polls conducted in recent months, reflecting the Liberal Party candidate’s strength in an agricultural region that has consistently favored right-leaning platforms on security, fiscal policy, and reduced environmental licensing. His positioning as the standard-bearer for Bolsonarismo, following his father’s endorsement and ineligibility, has consolidated support among conservative and rural voters. Other contenders, including Lula, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos, trail significantly in the same surveys. Late developments such as shifts in national polling averages, unexpected endorsements consolidating fragmented right-wing support, or unforeseen legal or health events could narrow the gap, though current state data shows limited room for such movement before the October 4 first round.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$9,978End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Mato Grosso first-round voting intentions according to multiple state-level polls conducted in recent months, reflecting the Liberal Party candidate’s strength in an agricultural region that has consistently favored right-leaning platforms on security, fiscal policy, and reduced environmental licensing. His positioning as the standard-bearer for Bolsonarismo, following his father’s endorsement and ineligibility, has consolidated support among conservative and rural voters. Other contenders, including Lula, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos, trail significantly in the same surveys. Late developments such as shifts in national polling averages, unexpected endorsements consolidating fragmented right-wing support, or unforeseen legal or health events could narrow the gap, though current state data shows limited room for such movement before the October 4 first round.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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