Delaware’s at-large congressional district maintains a structural Democratic advantage rooted in consistent voter registration edges and recent election results, supporting trader consensus around a 94.5 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Sarah McBride secured the seat in 2024 by double digits and faces no primary opposition ahead of the September 15 contest, while Republican candidates including Earl Cooper, John Whalen III, and Joseph Arminio compete in their own primary without demonstrated statewide strength. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the November 3, 2026 general election as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited path-to-victory options for Republicans in a state where the party has not won the seat in decades. Late developments such as a national partisan shift or candidate-specific issues could still narrow the margin before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$43,260 交易量
$43,260 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
95%
共和党
5%
$43,260 交易量
$43,260 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
$5,359 交易量
95%
共和党
$37,900 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the DE-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Delaware’s at-large congressional district maintains a structural Democratic advantage rooted in consistent voter registration edges and recent election results, supporting trader consensus around a 94.5 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Sarah McBride secured the seat in 2024 by double digits and faces no primary opposition ahead of the September 15 contest, while Republican candidates including Earl Cooper, John Whalen III, and Joseph Arminio compete in their own primary without demonstrated statewide strength. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the November 3, 2026 general election as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited path-to-victory options for Republicans in a state where the party has not won the seat in decades. Late developments such as a national partisan shift or candidate-specific issues could still narrow the margin before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the DE-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
交易量
$43,260结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the DE-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Delaware’s at-large congressional district maintains a structural Democratic advantage rooted in consistent voter registration edges and recent election results, supporting trader consensus around a 94.5 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Sarah McBride secured the seat in 2024 by double digits and faces no primary opposition ahead of the September 15 contest, while Republican candidates including Earl Cooper, John Whalen III, and Joseph Arminio compete in their own primary without demonstrated statewide strength. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the November 3, 2026 general election as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited path-to-victory options for Republicans in a state where the party has not won the seat in decades. Late developments such as a national partisan shift or candidate-specific issues could still narrow the margin before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the DE-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$43,260结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETDelaware’s at-large congressional district maintains a structural Democratic advantage rooted in consistent voter registration edges and recent election results, supporting trader consensus around a 94.5 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Sarah McBride secured the seat in 2024 by double digits and faces no primary opposition ahead of the September 15 contest, while Republican candidates including Earl Cooper, John Whalen III, and Joseph Arminio compete in their own primary without demonstrated statewide strength. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the November 3, 2026 general election as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited path-to-victory options for Republicans in a state where the party has not won the seat in decades. Late developments such as a national partisan shift or candidate-specific issues could still narrow the margin before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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