Incumbent Republican Nick Begich III holds a commanding position in Alaska’s at-large House race due to his 2024 victory, strong primary performance advancing ahead of independent Bill Hill and other candidates, and consistent polling leads of 10–15 points or more in head-to-head and ranked-choice scenarios through September 2026. The state’s Republican tilt, evidenced by recent presidential results, combined with the withdrawal of leading Democratic contenders like Matt Schultz, reinforces trader consensus reflected in the 92.5% Republican implied probability. Hill remains the primary alternative, yet faces structural barriers in a top-four primary and ranked-choice general election system. Late developments such as shifts in national midterm sentiment, unusually high independent turnout favoring Hill, or unexpected candidate withdrawals could still alter the outcome before November 3.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$48,766 交易量
$48,766 交易量
2026-11-02
共和党
93%
民主党
4%
$48,766 交易量
$48,766 交易量
2026-11-02
共和党
$15,454 交易量
93%
民主党
$33,313 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AK-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Nick Begich III holds a commanding position in Alaska’s at-large House race due to his 2024 victory, strong primary performance advancing ahead of independent Bill Hill and other candidates, and consistent polling leads of 10–15 points or more in head-to-head and ranked-choice scenarios through September 2026. The state’s Republican tilt, evidenced by recent presidential results, combined with the withdrawal of leading Democratic contenders like Matt Schultz, reinforces trader consensus reflected in the 92.5% Republican implied probability. Hill remains the primary alternative, yet faces structural barriers in a top-four primary and ranked-choice general election system. Late developments such as shifts in national midterm sentiment, unusually high independent turnout favoring Hill, or unexpected candidate withdrawals could still alter the outcome before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AK-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 5:46 PM ET
交易量
$48,766结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 5:46 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AK-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Nick Begich III holds a commanding position in Alaska’s at-large House race due to his 2024 victory, strong primary performance advancing ahead of independent Bill Hill and other candidates, and consistent polling leads of 10–15 points or more in head-to-head and ranked-choice scenarios through September 2026. The state’s Republican tilt, evidenced by recent presidential results, combined with the withdrawal of leading Democratic contenders like Matt Schultz, reinforces trader consensus reflected in the 92.5% Republican implied probability. Hill remains the primary alternative, yet faces structural barriers in a top-four primary and ranked-choice general election system. Late developments such as shifts in national midterm sentiment, unusually high independent turnout favoring Hill, or unexpected candidate withdrawals could still alter the outcome before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AK-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$48,766结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 5:46 PM ETIncumbent Republican Nick Begich III holds a commanding position in Alaska’s at-large House race due to his 2024 victory, strong primary performance advancing ahead of independent Bill Hill and other candidates, and consistent polling leads of 10–15 points or more in head-to-head and ranked-choice scenarios through September 2026. The state’s Republican tilt, evidenced by recent presidential results, combined with the withdrawal of leading Democratic contenders like Matt Schultz, reinforces trader consensus reflected in the 92.5% Republican implied probability. Hill remains the primary alternative, yet faces structural barriers in a top-four primary and ranked-choice general election system. Late developments such as shifts in national midterm sentiment, unusually high independent turnout favoring Hill, or unexpected candidate withdrawals could still alter the outcome before November 3.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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