Redistricting in 2025 substantially altered Texas’s 15th Congressional District, incorporating large new areas north and east of the Rio Grande Valley that Monica De La Cruz has not previously represented, shifting the seat toward a more competitive baseline while retaining a Hispanic-majority electorate. Bobby Pulido secured the Democratic nomination in March 2026 with a decisive primary win as a moderate Tejano musician, and a July poll showed him leading De La Cruz by six points. Traders appear to weigh these factors, along with the district’s recent Democratic voting history, more heavily than the incumbent’s fundraising advantage and most forecasters’ Lean Republican or Tilt Republican ratings, producing the current implied probabilities for the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$22,248 交易量
$22,248 交易量
2026-11-03
Bobby Pulido（民主党）
64%
莫妮卡·德拉克鲁斯（共和党）
38%
$22,248 交易量
$22,248 交易量
2026-11-03
Bobby Pulido（民主党）
$9,026 交易量
64%
莫妮卡·德拉克鲁斯（共和党）
$13,222 交易量
38%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting in 2025 substantially altered Texas’s 15th Congressional District, incorporating large new areas north and east of the Rio Grande Valley that Monica De La Cruz has not previously represented, shifting the seat toward a more competitive baseline while retaining a Hispanic-majority electorate. Bobby Pulido secured the Democratic nomination in March 2026 with a decisive primary win as a moderate Tejano musician, and a July poll showed him leading De La Cruz by six points. Traders appear to weigh these factors, along with the district’s recent Democratic voting history, more heavily than the incumbent’s fundraising advantage and most forecasters’ Lean Republican or Tilt Republican ratings, producing the current implied probabilities for the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
交易量
$22,248结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting in 2025 substantially altered Texas’s 15th Congressional District, incorporating large new areas north and east of the Rio Grande Valley that Monica De La Cruz has not previously represented, shifting the seat toward a more competitive baseline while retaining a Hispanic-majority electorate. Bobby Pulido secured the Democratic nomination in March 2026 with a decisive primary win as a moderate Tejano musician, and a July poll showed him leading De La Cruz by six points. Traders appear to weigh these factors, along with the district’s recent Democratic voting history, more heavily than the incumbent’s fundraising advantage and most forecasters’ Lean Republican or Tilt Republican ratings, producing the current implied probabilities for the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$22,248结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETRedistricting in 2025 substantially altered Texas’s 15th Congressional District, incorporating large new areas north and east of the Rio Grande Valley that Monica De La Cruz has not previously represented, shifting the seat toward a more competitive baseline while retaining a Hispanic-majority electorate. Bobby Pulido secured the Democratic nomination in March 2026 with a decisive primary win as a moderate Tejano musician, and a July poll showed him leading De La Cruz by six points. Traders appear to weigh these factors, along with the district’s recent Democratic voting history, more heavily than the incumbent’s fundraising advantage and most forecasters’ Lean Republican or Tilt Republican ratings, producing the current implied probabilities for the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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