Incumbent Republican Brad Finstad holds a clear edge in Minnesota's 1st congressional district due to the seat's R+6 partisan voting index, his prior reelection margins, and strong primary performance where he captured over 90% of the vote. Trader consensus reflected in the 72% probability for Finstad aligns with the district's recent Republican tilt, including Trump's 2024 margin. Democrat Jake Johnson, a first-time candidate and math teacher, has narrowed the gap through roughly equal fundraising near $2 million each, DCCC Red to Blue inclusion, and an endorsement from former Republican governor Arne Carlson, while emphasizing town halls and local issues. Limited recent polling and models project Finstad ahead by 6-10 points ahead of the November 3 general election, though the race remains on some forecasters' radar as potentially competitive.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$45,782 交易量
$45,782 交易量
2026-11-02
布拉德·芬斯塔德（共和党）
59%
杰克·约翰逊（民主党）
41%
$45,782 交易量
$45,782 交易量
2026-11-02
布拉德·芬斯塔德（共和党）
$16,688 交易量
59%
杰克·约翰逊（民主党）
$29,094 交易量
41%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Brad Finstad holds a clear edge in Minnesota's 1st congressional district due to the seat's R+6 partisan voting index, his prior reelection margins, and strong primary performance where he captured over 90% of the vote. Trader consensus reflected in the 72% probability for Finstad aligns with the district's recent Republican tilt, including Trump's 2024 margin. Democrat Jake Johnson, a first-time candidate and math teacher, has narrowed the gap through roughly equal fundraising near $2 million each, DCCC Red to Blue inclusion, and an endorsement from former Republican governor Arne Carlson, while emphasizing town halls and local issues. Limited recent polling and models project Finstad ahead by 6-10 points ahead of the November 3 general election, though the race remains on some forecasters' radar as potentially competitive.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$45,782结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Brad Finstad holds a clear edge in Minnesota's 1st congressional district due to the seat's R+6 partisan voting index, his prior reelection margins, and strong primary performance where he captured over 90% of the vote. Trader consensus reflected in the 72% probability for Finstad aligns with the district's recent Republican tilt, including Trump's 2024 margin. Democrat Jake Johnson, a first-time candidate and math teacher, has narrowed the gap through roughly equal fundraising near $2 million each, DCCC Red to Blue inclusion, and an endorsement from former Republican governor Arne Carlson, while emphasizing town halls and local issues. Limited recent polling and models project Finstad ahead by 6-10 points ahead of the November 3 general election, though the race remains on some forecasters' radar as potentially competitive.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$45,782结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETIncumbent Republican Brad Finstad holds a clear edge in Minnesota's 1st congressional district due to the seat's R+6 partisan voting index, his prior reelection margins, and strong primary performance where he captured over 90% of the vote. Trader consensus reflected in the 72% probability for Finstad aligns with the district's recent Republican tilt, including Trump's 2024 margin. Democrat Jake Johnson, a first-time candidate and math teacher, has narrowed the gap through roughly equal fundraising near $2 million each, DCCC Red to Blue inclusion, and an endorsement from former Republican governor Arne Carlson, while emphasizing town halls and local issues. Limited recent polling and models project Finstad ahead by 6-10 points ahead of the November 3 general election, though the race remains on some forecasters' radar as potentially competitive.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题