Kathy Castor holds a 63% implied probability in the FL-14 general election market primarily due to her two-decade incumbency and strong name recognition in Hillsborough County, which provide an edge despite mid-decade redistricting that shifted the district eastward and made it more Republican-leaning based on 2024 presidential voting. Mike Beltran secured the Republican nomination in the August 18 primary with 46% of the vote and has raised over $2 million, drawing national GOP support as a former state representative, yet early polling showed Castor ahead by single digits. Traders appear to weigh Castor's established record on local infrastructure and health care issues against the district's altered partisan composition and Beltran's grassroots campaign, leaving room for movement as the November 3 contest approaches.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$45,909 交易量
$45,909 交易量
2026-11-02
凯西·卡斯特（民主党）
63%
迈克·贝尔特兰（共和党）
36%
$45,909 交易量
$45,909 交易量
2026-11-02
凯西·卡斯特（民主党）
$23,541 交易量
63%
迈克·贝尔特兰（共和党）
$22,369 交易量
36%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kathy Castor holds a 63% implied probability in the FL-14 general election market primarily due to her two-decade incumbency and strong name recognition in Hillsborough County, which provide an edge despite mid-decade redistricting that shifted the district eastward and made it more Republican-leaning based on 2024 presidential voting. Mike Beltran secured the Republican nomination in the August 18 primary with 46% of the vote and has raised over $2 million, drawing national GOP support as a former state representative, yet early polling showed Castor ahead by single digits. Traders appear to weigh Castor's established record on local infrastructure and health care issues against the district's altered partisan composition and Beltran's grassroots campaign, leaving room for movement as the November 3 contest approaches.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ET
交易量
$45,909结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kathy Castor holds a 63% implied probability in the FL-14 general election market primarily due to her two-decade incumbency and strong name recognition in Hillsborough County, which provide an edge despite mid-decade redistricting that shifted the district eastward and made it more Republican-leaning based on 2024 presidential voting. Mike Beltran secured the Republican nomination in the August 18 primary with 46% of the vote and has raised over $2 million, drawing national GOP support as a former state representative, yet early polling showed Castor ahead by single digits. Traders appear to weigh Castor's established record on local infrastructure and health care issues against the district's altered partisan composition and Beltran's grassroots campaign, leaving room for movement as the November 3 contest approaches.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$45,909结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETKathy Castor holds a 63% implied probability in the FL-14 general election market primarily due to her two-decade incumbency and strong name recognition in Hillsborough County, which provide an edge despite mid-decade redistricting that shifted the district eastward and made it more Republican-leaning based on 2024 presidential voting. Mike Beltran secured the Republican nomination in the August 18 primary with 46% of the vote and has raised over $2 million, drawing national GOP support as a former state representative, yet early polling showed Castor ahead by single digits. Traders appear to weigh Castor's established record on local infrastructure and health care issues against the district's altered partisan composition and Beltran's grassroots campaign, leaving room for movement as the November 3 contest approaches.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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