Recent readings of Japan's core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) have hovered near 1.9% year-over-year as of July 2026, with Tokyo's August figure reaching 2.0%, reflecting gradual cost pass-through amid Middle East-driven energy pressures and yen depreciation. The Bank of Japan's July 2026 outlook projects underlying inflation rising clearly above 2% in the second half of fiscal 2026 due to semiconductor demand from AI growth and broadening price adjustments, before moderating toward the 2% target thereafter. This trajectory underpins the 68.5% market-implied probability for a 2.0-2.4% 2026 outcome, while the 30% chance assigned to ≤1.9% accounts for lingering subsidy effects and subdued demand. The September 17-18 FOMC-equivalent BOJ policy meeting and upcoming national CPI releases represent key near-term catalysts that could refine these probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoJapan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026
Japan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026
2.0-2.4% 69%
≤1.9% 30%
3,0-3,4% <1%
2.5-2.9% <1%
$43,680 Vol.
$43,680 Vol.
12 fev 2027
≤1.9%
30%
2.0-2.4%
69%
2.5-2.9%
<1%
3,0-3,4%
1%
3.5-3.9%
<1%
4,0%+
<1%
2.0-2.4% 69%
≤1.9% 30%
3,0-3,4% <1%
2.5-2.9% <1%
$43,680 Vol.
$43,680 Vol.
12 fev 2027
≤1.9%
$12,687 Vol.
30%
2.0-2.4%
$17,284 Vol.
69%
2.5-2.9%
$9,458 Vol.
<1%
3,0-3,4%
$1,341 Vol.
1%
3.5-3.9%
$1,326 Vol.
<1%
4,0%+
$1,583 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent readings of Japan's core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) have hovered near 1.9% year-over-year as of July 2026, with Tokyo's August figure reaching 2.0%, reflecting gradual cost pass-through amid Middle East-driven energy pressures and yen depreciation. The Bank of Japan's July 2026 outlook projects underlying inflation rising clearly above 2% in the second half of fiscal 2026 due to semiconductor demand from AI growth and broadening price adjustments, before moderating toward the 2% target thereafter. This trajectory underpins the 68.5% market-implied probability for a 2.0-2.4% 2026 outcome, while the 30% chance assigned to ≤1.9% accounts for lingering subsidy effects and subdued demand. The September 17-18 FOMC-equivalent BOJ policy meeting and upcoming national CPI releases represent key near-term catalysts that could refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 17, 2026, 7:26 PM ET
Volume
$43,680Data de Término
12 fev 2027Mercado Aberto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent readings of Japan's core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) have hovered near 1.9% year-over-year as of July 2026, with Tokyo's August figure reaching 2.0%, reflecting gradual cost pass-through amid Middle East-driven energy pressures and yen depreciation. The Bank of Japan's July 2026 outlook projects underlying inflation rising clearly above 2% in the second half of fiscal 2026 due to semiconductor demand from AI growth and broadening price adjustments, before moderating toward the 2% target thereafter. This trajectory underpins the 68.5% market-implied probability for a 2.0-2.4% 2026 outcome, while the 30% chance assigned to ≤1.9% accounts for lingering subsidy effects and subdued demand. The September 17-18 FOMC-equivalent BOJ policy meeting and upcoming national CPI releases represent key near-term catalysts that could refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$43,680Data de Término
12 fev 2027Mercado Aberto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent readings of Japan's core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) have hovered near 1.9% year-over-year as of July 2026, with Tokyo's August figure reaching 2.0%, reflecting gradual cost pass-through amid Middle East-driven energy pressures and yen depreciation. The Bank of Japan's July 2026 outlook projects underlying inflation rising clearly above 2% in the second half of fiscal 2026 due to semiconductor demand from AI growth and broadening price adjustments, before moderating toward the 2% target thereafter. This trajectory underpins the 68.5% market-implied probability for a 2.0-2.4% 2026 outcome, while the 30% chance assigned to ≤1.9% accounts for lingering subsidy effects and subdued demand. The September 17-18 FOMC-equivalent BOJ policy meeting and upcoming national CPI releases represent key near-term catalysts that could refine these probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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