Trent Kelly’s commanding position in the MS-01 House race stems from the district’s entrenched Republican advantage, reflected in its R+18 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. As the incumbent since a 2015 special election, Kelly secured the GOP nomination unopposed in the March 2026 primary and enters the November 3 general election with substantial name recognition and fundraising leads. Democratic nominee Cliff Johnson, who won his March primary, faces the structural barrier of a district that supported the Republican presidential ticket by wide margins in 2024. Independent candidate Johnny Baucom is also on the ballot but draws negligible support. Trader consensus assigns Kelly a 94.5% implied probability because no polling, fundraising shift, or late-cycle development has narrowed the historical gap. Only an unforeseen event such as a major scandal or national political realignment would realistically alter the outcome before Election Day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur du MS-01 House Election
Vainqueur du MS-01 House Election
$117,455 Vol.
$117,455 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Trent Kelly (R)
95%
Cliff Johnson (D)
4%
$117,455 Vol.
$117,455 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Trent Kelly (R)
$85,217 Vol.
95%
Cliff Johnson (D)
$32,239 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trent Kelly’s commanding position in the MS-01 House race stems from the district’s entrenched Republican advantage, reflected in its R+18 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. As the incumbent since a 2015 special election, Kelly secured the GOP nomination unopposed in the March 2026 primary and enters the November 3 general election with substantial name recognition and fundraising leads. Democratic nominee Cliff Johnson, who won his March primary, faces the structural barrier of a district that supported the Republican presidential ticket by wide margins in 2024. Independent candidate Johnny Baucom is also on the ballot but draws negligible support. Trader consensus assigns Kelly a 94.5% implied probability because no polling, fundraising shift, or late-cycle development has narrowed the historical gap. Only an unforeseen event such as a major scandal or national political realignment would realistically alter the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$117,455Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trent Kelly’s commanding position in the MS-01 House race stems from the district’s entrenched Republican advantage, reflected in its R+18 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. As the incumbent since a 2015 special election, Kelly secured the GOP nomination unopposed in the March 2026 primary and enters the November 3 general election with substantial name recognition and fundraising leads. Democratic nominee Cliff Johnson, who won his March primary, faces the structural barrier of a district that supported the Republican presidential ticket by wide margins in 2024. Independent candidate Johnny Baucom is also on the ballot but draws negligible support. Trader consensus assigns Kelly a 94.5% implied probability because no polling, fundraising shift, or late-cycle development has narrowed the historical gap. Only an unforeseen event such as a major scandal or national political realignment would realistically alter the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$117,455Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Trent Kelly’s commanding position in the MS-01 House race stems from the district’s entrenched Republican advantage, reflected in its R+18 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. As the incumbent since a 2015 special election, Kelly secured the GOP nomination unopposed in the March 2026 primary and enters the November 3 general election with substantial name recognition and fundraising leads. Democratic nominee Cliff Johnson, who won his March primary, faces the structural barrier of a district that supported the Republican presidential ticket by wide margins in 2024. Independent candidate Johnny Baucom is also on the ballot but draws negligible support. Trader consensus assigns Kelly a 94.5% implied probability because no polling, fundraising shift, or late-cycle development has narrowed the historical gap. Only an unforeseen event such as a major scandal or national political realignment would realistically alter the outcome before Election Day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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