Incumbent Laura Gillen holds a commanding lead in the NY-04 general election on November 3, reflecting her 2024 victory in the Nassau County swing district, Democratic voter enrollment edge, and substantial fundraising advantage over Republican nominee Jeanine Driscoll. Forecasters rate the race Lean or Tilt Democratic based on the seat's recent partisan flips, Gillen's first-term record on costs and taxes, and Driscoll's background as Hempstead receiver of taxes, which has drawn attack ads over local tax policy despite her administrative role. The June Republican primary win by Driscoll consolidated the nomination but has not shifted the underlying dynamics. Late developments such as national midterm trends, turnout among suburban swing voters, or unforeseen campaign events could still narrow the margin in this competitive Long Island seat.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Laura Gillen (D)
91%
Jeanine Driscoll (R)
10%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Laura Gillen (D)
$3,690 Vol.
91%
Jeanine Driscoll (R)
$2,153 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Laura Gillen holds a commanding lead in the NY-04 general election on November 3, reflecting her 2024 victory in the Nassau County swing district, Democratic voter enrollment edge, and substantial fundraising advantage over Republican nominee Jeanine Driscoll. Forecasters rate the race Lean or Tilt Democratic based on the seat's recent partisan flips, Gillen's first-term record on costs and taxes, and Driscoll's background as Hempstead receiver of taxes, which has drawn attack ads over local tax policy despite her administrative role. The June Republican primary win by Driscoll consolidated the nomination but has not shifted the underlying dynamics. Late developments such as national midterm trends, turnout among suburban swing voters, or unforeseen campaign events could still narrow the margin in this competitive Long Island seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Volume
$5,843Date de fin
4 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Laura Gillen holds a commanding lead in the NY-04 general election on November 3, reflecting her 2024 victory in the Nassau County swing district, Democratic voter enrollment edge, and substantial fundraising advantage over Republican nominee Jeanine Driscoll. Forecasters rate the race Lean or Tilt Democratic based on the seat's recent partisan flips, Gillen's first-term record on costs and taxes, and Driscoll's background as Hempstead receiver of taxes, which has drawn attack ads over local tax policy despite her administrative role. The June Republican primary win by Driscoll consolidated the nomination but has not shifted the underlying dynamics. Late developments such as national midterm trends, turnout among suburban swing voters, or unforeseen campaign events could still narrow the margin in this competitive Long Island seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$5,843Date de fin
4 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Laura Gillen holds a commanding lead in the NY-04 general election on November 3, reflecting her 2024 victory in the Nassau County swing district, Democratic voter enrollment edge, and substantial fundraising advantage over Republican nominee Jeanine Driscoll. Forecasters rate the race Lean or Tilt Democratic based on the seat's recent partisan flips, Gillen's first-term record on costs and taxes, and Driscoll's background as Hempstead receiver of taxes, which has drawn attack ads over local tax policy despite her administrative role. The June Republican primary win by Driscoll consolidated the nomination but has not shifted the underlying dynamics. Late developments such as national midterm trends, turnout among suburban swing voters, or unforeseen campaign events could still narrow the margin in this competitive Long Island seat.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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