Incumbent Republican Lloyd Smucker holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania's 11th congressional district, a solidly Republican seat covering Lancaster County and southern York County, as reflected in trader consensus on the outcome. Both candidates secured uncontested primary nominations in May 2026, and forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball have rated the race Safe or Solid Republican for months. Smucker's substantial fundraising edge and established incumbency further reinforce the positioning, with limited Democratic path-to-victory options in the district's voting patterns. Nancy Mannion, a nurse and healthcare consultant, faces structural barriers typical of challengers in such areas. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event for the incumbent, or an unexpected national political shift could still alter the trajectory before the November 3 general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourPA-11 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
PA-11 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$25,718 Vol.
$25,718 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Lloyd Smucker (R)
98%
Nancy Mannion (D)
1%
$25,718 Vol.
$25,718 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Lloyd Smucker (R)
$15,668 Vol.
98%
Nancy Mannion (D)
$10,050 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Lloyd Smucker holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania's 11th congressional district, a solidly Republican seat covering Lancaster County and southern York County, as reflected in trader consensus on the outcome. Both candidates secured uncontested primary nominations in May 2026, and forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball have rated the race Safe or Solid Republican for months. Smucker's substantial fundraising edge and established incumbency further reinforce the positioning, with limited Democratic path-to-victory options in the district's voting patterns. Nancy Mannion, a nurse and healthcare consultant, faces structural barriers typical of challengers in such areas. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event for the incumbent, or an unexpected national political shift could still alter the trajectory before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$25,718Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Lloyd Smucker holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania's 11th congressional district, a solidly Republican seat covering Lancaster County and southern York County, as reflected in trader consensus on the outcome. Both candidates secured uncontested primary nominations in May 2026, and forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball have rated the race Safe or Solid Republican for months. Smucker's substantial fundraising edge and established incumbency further reinforce the positioning, with limited Democratic path-to-victory options in the district's voting patterns. Nancy Mannion, a nurse and healthcare consultant, faces structural barriers typical of challengers in such areas. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event for the incumbent, or an unexpected national political shift could still alter the trajectory before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$25,718Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Lloyd Smucker holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania's 11th congressional district, a solidly Republican seat covering Lancaster County and southern York County, as reflected in trader consensus on the outcome. Both candidates secured uncontested primary nominations in May 2026, and forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball have rated the race Safe or Solid Republican for months. Smucker's substantial fundraising edge and established incumbency further reinforce the positioning, with limited Democratic path-to-victory options in the district's voting patterns. Nancy Mannion, a nurse and healthcare consultant, faces structural barriers typical of challengers in such areas. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event for the incumbent, or an unexpected national political shift could still alter the trajectory before the November 3 general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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