Incumbent Democrat Adam Smith advanced comfortably from Washington’s August 2026 top-two primary to face Republican Doug Basler in the November general election for the state’s 9th congressional district. The seat’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+22 partisan voting index and consistent Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters, underpins the market’s 95.9% consensus for Smith. Smith’s long tenure, substantial fundraising edge, and the absence of competitive primary threats from the left have reinforced expectations of a wide margin. Traders assign only 2.3% to Basler, consistent with historical results and the limited path for an upset absent major shifts such as a national political realignment or unforeseen candidate developments before Election Day.