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icon for AZ-01 Vainqueur de l'élection présidentielle
Politique·Midterms

AZ-01 Vainqueur de l'élection présidentielle

icon for AZ-01 Vainqueur de l'élection présidentielle
Politique·Midterms

AZ-01 Vainqueur de l'élection présidentielle

Polymarket
NOUVEAU
Polymarket
NOUVEAU

Amish Shah (D)

$6,835 Vol.

72%

Jay Feely (R)

$1,900 Vol.

28%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Amish Shah holds the lead in trader consensus for Arizona’s 1st Congressional District open seat because his moderate record as a former state representative and emergency physician has drawn cross-aisle appeal and recent law-enforcement endorsements in a district rated toss-up or lean Democratic by forecasters. The July 2026 Democratic primary victory over the DCCC-backed candidate gave Shah residual name identification after his narrow 2024 general-election loss, while Republican nominee Jay Feely, a Trump-endorsed former NFL kicker, has faced scrutiny over campaign claims. Fundraising remains competitive, with both candidates emphasizing affordability, health care costs, and tariffs ahead of the November 3 general election. Upcoming debates and continued union support represent the main near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities in this battleground contest.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$8,734
Date de fin
4 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 11:39 AM ET

Résolveur

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Amish Shah holds the lead in trader consensus for Arizona’s 1st Congressional District open seat because his moderate record as a former state representative and emergency physician has drawn cross-aisle appeal and recent law-enforcement endorsements in a district rated toss-up or lean Democratic by forecasters. The July 2026 Democratic primary victory over the DCCC-backed candidate gave Shah residual name identification after his narrow 2024 general-election loss, while Republican nominee Jay Feely, a Trump-endorsed former NFL kicker, has faced scrutiny over campaign claims. Fundraising remains competitive, with both candidates emphasizing affordability, health care costs, and tariffs ahead of the November 3 general election. Upcoming debates and continued union support represent the main near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities in this battleground contest.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$8,734
Date de fin
4 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 11:39 AM ET

Résolveur

0x2F5e3684c...

Connexes

icon for Le Parti démocrate remportera-t-il le siège de la chambre AZ-06 ?

Le Parti démocrate remportera-t-il le siège de la chambre AZ-06 ?

83%
Oui
icon for Le Parti républicain remportera-t-il le siège de la Chambre TX-01 ?

Le Parti républicain remportera-t-il le siège de la Chambre TX-01 ?

96%
Oui
icon for Le Parti républicain remportera-t-il le siège de la Chambre pour le MD-01 ?

Le Parti républicain remportera-t-il le siège de la Chambre pour le MD-01 ?

94%
Oui

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« AZ-01 Vainqueur de l'élection présidentielle » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Amish Shah (D) » à 72%, suivi de « Jay Feely (R) » à 28%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 72¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 72% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« AZ-01 Vainqueur de l'élection présidentielle » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Dec 16, 2025. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « AZ-01 Vainqueur de l'élection présidentielle », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « AZ-01 Vainqueur de l'élection présidentielle » est « Amish Shah (D) » à 72%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 72% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Jay Feely (R) » à 28%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « AZ-01 Vainqueur de l'élection présidentielle » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.