Skip to main content

Pour trader aux États-Unis, va sur polymarket.us

icon for Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre des représentants NY-19
Politique·Élections Du 4 Novembre

Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre des représentants NY-19

icon for Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre des représentants NY-19
Politique·Élections Du 4 Novembre

Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre des représentants NY-19

Polymarket

$20,985 Vol.

Polymarket

$20,985 Vol.

Josh Riley (D)

$10,142 Vol.

94%

Peter Oberacker (R)

$10,843 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Josh Riley holds a commanding position in the New York 19th Congressional District race, reflecting strong fundraising advantages, his narrow 2024 victory, and the district’s recent lean-Democratic rating by forecasters. Republicans have sharply reduced investment after pulling millions in planned ad reservations and removing nominee Peter Oberacker from priority programs, citing weak prospects and a resurfaced 2015 social media post by the state senator. Oberacker secured the GOP nomination in June with Trump’s endorsement but trails significantly in resources and faces an electorate that gave the Democratic presidential nominee a slim edge in 2024. National party withdrawal has further consolidated trader consensus around Riley ahead of the November 3 general election, though shifts in turnout or late developments could still influence the outcome in this historically competitive Hudson Valley and Southern Tier seat.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$20,985
Date de fin
4 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET

Résolveur

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Josh Riley holds a commanding position in the New York 19th Congressional District race, reflecting strong fundraising advantages, his narrow 2024 victory, and the district’s recent lean-Democratic rating by forecasters. Republicans have sharply reduced investment after pulling millions in planned ad reservations and removing nominee Peter Oberacker from priority programs, citing weak prospects and a resurfaced 2015 social media post by the state senator. Oberacker secured the GOP nomination in June with Trump’s endorsement but trails significantly in resources and faces an electorate that gave the Democratic presidential nominee a slim edge in 2024. National party withdrawal has further consolidated trader consensus around Riley ahead of the November 3 general election, though shifts in turnout or late developments could still influence the outcome in this historically competitive Hudson Valley and Southern Tier seat.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$20,985
Date de fin
4 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET

Résolveur

0x2F5e3684c...

Connexes

icon for Le Parti démocrate remportera-t-il le siège de la Chambre du NY-18 ?

Le Parti démocrate remportera-t-il le siège de la Chambre du NY-18 ?

93%
Oui
icon for Le Parti démocrate remportera-t-il le siège de la Chambre NY-26 ?

Le Parti démocrate remportera-t-il le siège de la Chambre NY-26 ?

95%
Oui
icon for Le Parti démocrate remportera-t-il le siège de la Chambre NY-13 ?

Le Parti démocrate remportera-t-il le siège de la Chambre NY-13 ?

97%
Oui

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre des représentants NY-19 » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Josh Riley (D) » à 94%, suivi de « Peter Oberacker (R) » à 5%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 94¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 94% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre des représentants NY-19 » a généré $21K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Dec 16, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre des représentants NY-19 », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre des représentants NY-19 » est « Josh Riley (D) » à 94%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 94% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Peter Oberacker (R) » à 5%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre des représentants NY-19 » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.