Scott Wiener leads the market for California's 11th congressional district at 65.5% implied probability over Connie Chan at 35.5%, reflecting his stronger primary performance and broader institutional support ahead of the November 3 general election. Wiener captured 40.7% in the June 2 top-two primary to Chan's 29.7%, advancing both Democrats in the open seat race to succeed Nancy Pelosi in the solidly Democratic San Francisco district. Wiener's advantages include higher name recognition from his state senate tenure, substantial fundraising, endorsements from the California Democratic Party and Attorney General Rob Bonta, and emphasis on housing and moderate policy positions. Chan's campaign draws progressive backing, labor unions, and Pelosi's endorsement, but trails in overall momentum and resources. With no major developments in the past month, trader consensus aligns with historical patterns favoring the primary frontrunner in low-competition Democratic strongholds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$15,903 Vol.
$15,903 Vol.
Scott Wiener
66%
Connie Chan
36%
$15,903 Vol.
$15,903 Vol.
Scott Wiener
66%
Connie Chan
36%
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jul 9, 2026, 10:00 PM ET
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...Scott Wiener leads the market for California's 11th congressional district at 65.5% implied probability over Connie Chan at 35.5%, reflecting his stronger primary performance and broader institutional support ahead of the November 3 general election. Wiener captured 40.7% in the June 2 top-two primary to Chan's 29.7%, advancing both Democrats in the open seat race to succeed Nancy Pelosi in the solidly Democratic San Francisco district. Wiener's advantages include higher name recognition from his state senate tenure, substantial fundraising, endorsements from the California Democratic Party and Attorney General Rob Bonta, and emphasis on housing and moderate policy positions. Chan's campaign draws progressive backing, labor unions, and Pelosi's endorsement, but trails in overall momentum and resources. With no major developments in the past month, trader consensus aligns with historical patterns favoring the primary frontrunner in low-competition Democratic strongholds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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