Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) maintains a clear lead in recent polls for one Senate seat in Mato Grosso do Sul, leaving the second position contested among Capitão Contar (PL), Soraya Thronicke (PSB), and Vander Loubet (PT). Nelsinho Trad’s withdrawal to serve as Azambuja’s alternate has consolidated support within the PL ticket, bolstering Contar’s positioning in combined-vote scenarios. Polling averages from August and early September show Contar frequently ahead or tied for second, while Vander has gained ground in some surveys and Soraya holds steady backing from her base. With voters selecting two candidates and roughly one month until the October election, turnout patterns, last-minute alliances, and final debate performances remain key variables that could shift the narrow margins reflected in trader pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCapitão Contar 59%
Soraya 19.3%
Vander Loubet 18%
Reinaldo Azambuja 3.5%
$22,809 Vol.
$22,809 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Capitão Contar
59%
Soraya
19%
Vander Loubet
18%
Reinaldo Azambuja
4%
Beto do Movimento
<1%
Valter da Comagran
<1%
Roberto Oshiro
<1%
Luiz Lemes
<1%
Daniel Junior
<1%
Valderi Garcia
<1%
Capitão Contar 59%
Soraya 19.3%
Vander Loubet 18%
Reinaldo Azambuja 3.5%
$22,809 Vol.
$22,809 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Capitão Contar
$8,716 Vol.
59%
Soraya
$2,516 Vol.
19%
Vander Loubet
$6,646 Vol.
18%
Reinaldo Azambuja
$1,042 Vol.
4%
Beto do Movimento
$684 Vol.
<1%
Valter da Comagran
$719 Vol.
<1%
Roberto Oshiro
$757 Vol.
<1%
Luiz Lemes
$787 Vol.
<1%
Daniel Junior
$497 Vol.
<1%
Valderi Garcia
$444 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) maintains a clear lead in recent polls for one Senate seat in Mato Grosso do Sul, leaving the second position contested among Capitão Contar (PL), Soraya Thronicke (PSB), and Vander Loubet (PT). Nelsinho Trad’s withdrawal to serve as Azambuja’s alternate has consolidated support within the PL ticket, bolstering Contar’s positioning in combined-vote scenarios. Polling averages from August and early September show Contar frequently ahead or tied for second, while Vander has gained ground in some surveys and Soraya holds steady backing from her base. With voters selecting two candidates and roughly one month until the October election, turnout patterns, last-minute alliances, and final debate performances remain key variables that could shift the narrow margins reflected in trader pricing.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Volume
$22,809End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) maintains a clear lead in recent polls for one Senate seat in Mato Grosso do Sul, leaving the second position contested among Capitão Contar (PL), Soraya Thronicke (PSB), and Vander Loubet (PT). Nelsinho Trad’s withdrawal to serve as Azambuja’s alternate has consolidated support within the PL ticket, bolstering Contar’s positioning in combined-vote scenarios. Polling averages from August and early September show Contar frequently ahead or tied for second, while Vander has gained ground in some surveys and Soraya holds steady backing from her base. With voters selecting two candidates and roughly one month until the October election, turnout patterns, last-minute alliances, and final debate performances remain key variables that could shift the narrow margins reflected in trader pricing.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$22,809End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) maintains a clear lead in recent polls for one Senate seat in Mato Grosso do Sul, leaving the second position contested among Capitão Contar (PL), Soraya Thronicke (PSB), and Vander Loubet (PT). Nelsinho Trad’s withdrawal to serve as Azambuja’s alternate has consolidated support within the PL ticket, bolstering Contar’s positioning in combined-vote scenarios. Polling averages from August and early September show Contar frequently ahead or tied for second, while Vander has gained ground in some surveys and Soraya holds steady backing from her base. With voters selecting two candidates and roughly one month until the October election, turnout patterns, last-minute alliances, and final debate performances remain key variables that could shift the narrow margins reflected in trader pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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