Recent July core PCE data held steady at 3.3% year-over-year, matching June and aligning with consensus, amid broader inflation pressures from elevated energy costs tied to Middle East supply disruptions. This stickiness above the Federal Reserve's 2% target has shaped trader expectations for the August reading, with market-implied odds favoring outcomes clustered around 3.1% to 3.3% as the most probable. Monthly core gains of 0.2% in July and resilient consumer spending have reinforced views of contained but persistent underlying price pressures, while the upcoming September 30 release—coinciding with the BEA's annual National Accounts update—introduces potential revisions. Fed communications and labor market stability continue to anchor probabilities near these levels ahead of the data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3.2% 36%
3.3% 25%
3.1% 18%
3.4% 12%
$14,853 Vol.
$14,853 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
≤3.0%
7%
3.1%
18%
3.2%
36%
3.3%
25%
3.4%
12%
3.5%
6%
3.6%+
4%
3.2% 36%
3.3% 25%
3.1% 18%
3.4% 12%
$14,853 Vol.
$14,853 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
≤3.0%
$964 Vol.
7%
3.1%
$5,603 Vol.
18%
3.2%
$4,052 Vol.
36%
3.3%
$574 Vol.
25%
3.4%
$1,342 Vol.
12%
3.5%
$1,431 Vol.
6%
3.6%+
$885 Vol.
4%
This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July core PCE data held steady at 3.3% year-over-year, matching June and aligning with consensus, amid broader inflation pressures from elevated energy costs tied to Middle East supply disruptions. This stickiness above the Federal Reserve's 2% target has shaped trader expectations for the August reading, with market-implied odds favoring outcomes clustered around 3.1% to 3.3% as the most probable. Monthly core gains of 0.2% in July and resilient consumer spending have reinforced views of contained but persistent underlying price pressures, while the upcoming September 30 release—coinciding with the BEA's annual National Accounts update—introduces potential revisions. Fed communications and labor market stability continue to anchor probabilities near these levels ahead of the data.
This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 3:47 PM ET
Volume
$14,853End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 3:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July core PCE data held steady at 3.3% year-over-year, matching June and aligning with consensus, amid broader inflation pressures from elevated energy costs tied to Middle East supply disruptions. This stickiness above the Federal Reserve's 2% target has shaped trader expectations for the August reading, with market-implied odds favoring outcomes clustered around 3.1% to 3.3% as the most probable. Monthly core gains of 0.2% in July and resilient consumer spending have reinforced views of contained but persistent underlying price pressures, while the upcoming September 30 release—coinciding with the BEA's annual National Accounts update—introduces potential revisions. Fed communications and labor market stability continue to anchor probabilities near these levels ahead of the data.
This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$14,853End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 3:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July core PCE data held steady at 3.3% year-over-year, matching June and aligning with consensus, amid broader inflation pressures from elevated energy costs tied to Middle East supply disruptions. This stickiness above the Federal Reserve's 2% target has shaped trader expectations for the August reading, with market-implied odds favoring outcomes clustered around 3.1% to 3.3% as the most probable. Monthly core gains of 0.2% in July and resilient consumer spending have reinforced views of contained but persistent underlying price pressures, while the upcoming September 30 release—coinciding with the BEA's annual National Accounts update—introduces potential revisions. Fed communications and labor market stability continue to anchor probabilities near these levels ahead of the data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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