Resilient U.S. labor market data and persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target have shifted trader sentiment toward a higher probability of a rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1%, while July CPI printed 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%. Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks and the removal of forward guidance have reinforced expectations that policymakers may act if price pressures from energy and supply factors fail to ease. Markets currently imply roughly 58-70% odds of a 25-basis-point hike next week, with the August CPI release due September 11 providing the final data point before the decision.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,924,537 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
September Meeting
54%
October Meeting
66%
$2,924,537 Vol.
September Meeting
$1,336,362 Vol.
54%
October Meeting
$628,176 Vol.
66%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Resilient U.S. labor market data and persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target have shifted trader sentiment toward a higher probability of a rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1%, while July CPI printed 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%. Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks and the removal of forward guidance have reinforced expectations that policymakers may act if price pressures from energy and supply factors fail to ease. Markets currently imply roughly 58-70% odds of a 25-basis-point hike next week, with the August CPI release due September 11 providing the final data point before the decision.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$2,924,537End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Resilient U.S. labor market data and persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target have shifted trader sentiment toward a higher probability of a rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1%, while July CPI printed 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%. Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks and the removal of forward guidance have reinforced expectations that policymakers may act if price pressures from energy and supply factors fail to ease. Markets currently imply roughly 58-70% odds of a 25-basis-point hike next week, with the August CPI release due September 11 providing the final data point before the decision.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,924,537End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resilient U.S. labor market data and persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target have shifted trader sentiment toward a higher probability of a rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1%, while July CPI printed 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%. Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks and the removal of forward guidance have reinforced expectations that policymakers may act if price pressures from energy and supply factors fail to ease. Markets currently imply roughly 58-70% odds of a 25-basis-point hike next week, with the August CPI release due September 11 providing the final data point before the decision.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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