Recent monthly CPI prints climbing toward 4.9% and the RBI’s 5.1% projection for FY 2026-27 reflect sustained upward pressure from food inflation linked to deficient monsoon rainfall and higher crude oil costs stemming from West Asia tensions, with the Indian basket averaging near $90 per barrel in August. Traders assign 90.5% probability to a full-year average above 4.50%, consistent with these verified data releases and the central bank’s assessment of limited immediate pass-through yet balanced risks. A sharper-than-expected improvement in reservoir levels, sustained government absorption of energy costs, or rapid easing in global commodity prices could still pull the annual reading below that threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4.50%+ 91%
3.75% to 4.49% 4.8%
<0.75% 1.2%
3.00% to 3.74% <1%
$84,002 Vol.
$84,002 Vol.
Jan 11, 2027
<0.75%
1%
0.75% to 1.49%
<1%
1.50% to 2.24%
<1%
2.25% to 2.99%
<1%
3.00% to 3.74%
1%
3.75% to 4.49%
5%
4.50%+
91%
4.50%+ 91%
3.75% to 4.49% 4.8%
<0.75% 1.2%
3.00% to 3.74% <1%
$84,002 Vol.
$84,002 Vol.
Jan 11, 2027
<0.75%
$2,299 Vol.
1%
0.75% to 1.49%
$1,520 Vol.
<1%
1.50% to 2.24%
$1,580 Vol.
<1%
2.25% to 2.99%
$25,446 Vol.
<1%
3.00% to 3.74%
$2,410 Vol.
1%
3.75% to 4.49%
$30,349 Vol.
5%
4.50%+
$20,397 Vol.
91%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfRecent monthly CPI prints climbing toward 4.9% and the RBI’s 5.1% projection for FY 2026-27 reflect sustained upward pressure from food inflation linked to deficient monsoon rainfall and higher crude oil costs stemming from West Asia tensions, with the Indian basket averaging near $90 per barrel in August. Traders assign 90.5% probability to a full-year average above 4.50%, consistent with these verified data releases and the central bank’s assessment of limited immediate pass-through yet balanced risks. A sharper-than-expected improvement in reservoir levels, sustained government absorption of energy costs, or rapid easing in global commodity prices could still pull the annual reading below that threshold.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Market Opened: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volume
$84,002End Date
Jan 12, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfRecent monthly CPI prints climbing toward 4.9% and the RBI’s 5.1% projection for FY 2026-27 reflect sustained upward pressure from food inflation linked to deficient monsoon rainfall and higher crude oil costs stemming from West Asia tensions, with the Indian basket averaging near $90 per barrel in August. Traders assign 90.5% probability to a full-year average above 4.50%, consistent with these verified data releases and the central bank’s assessment of limited immediate pass-through yet balanced risks. A sharper-than-expected improvement in reservoir levels, sustained government absorption of energy costs, or rapid easing in global commodity prices could still pull the annual reading below that threshold.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Volume
$84,002End Date
Jan 12, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent monthly CPI prints climbing toward 4.9% and the RBI’s 5.1% projection for FY 2026-27 reflect sustained upward pressure from food inflation linked to deficient monsoon rainfall and higher crude oil costs stemming from West Asia tensions, with the Indian basket averaging near $90 per barrel in August. Traders assign 90.5% probability to a full-year average above 4.50%, consistent with these verified data releases and the central bank’s assessment of limited immediate pass-through yet balanced risks. A sharper-than-expected improvement in reservoir levels, sustained government absorption of energy costs, or rapid easing in global commodity prices could still pull the annual reading below that threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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