Recent monthly inflation data, including the 1.7% August reading—the lowest in 14 months—has reinforced expectations for continued disinflation through year-end, driven by fiscal surplus, exchange-rate stability, and moderating inertia under current policy. Year-to-date accumulation stands at 21.3% with the trailing twelve-month rate at 33.5%, while consensus forecasts from the Central Bank’s REM survey and institutions such as BBVA cluster near 29–30% for December 2026. This positioning creates closely matched implied probabilities between the 25–29.9% and 30–34.9% buckets, as modest further deceleration could tip the outcome lower while any reacceleration in regulated prices or seasonal factors would sustain readings in the low thirties. Key near-term catalysts include September–December CPI releases and updates to market expectations surveys.