Recent hotter-than-expected August 2026 CPI data, with core CPI rising 0.3% month-over-month against a 0.2% consensus, has elevated trader expectations for the corresponding Core PCE print due later this month. Bank of America and Goldman Sachs nowcast August core PCE at 0.26–0.30% m/m, while TD Securities revised its estimate to 0.24% after firmer PPI components. July’s core PCE registered 0.2% m/m and held at 3.3% year-over-year, consistent with sticky services inflation. These developments anchor the 65.5% market-implied probability on a 0.3% August outcome, with the September 30 BEA release serving as the next key input for FOMC rate-path assessments amid elevated Treasury yields.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.3% 66%
0.2% 28%
0.1% 6.3%
0.4% 5.4%
$14,287 Vol.
$14,287 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
≤-0.1%
1%
0.0%
<1%
0.1%
6%
0.2%
28%
0.3%
66%
0.4%
5%
0.5%+
<1%
0.3% 66%
0.2% 28%
0.1% 6.3%
0.4% 5.4%
$14,287 Vol.
$14,287 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
≤-0.1%
$643 Vol.
1%
0.0%
$686 Vol.
<1%
0.1%
$887 Vol.
6%
0.2%
$5,858 Vol.
28%
0.3%
$5,080 Vol.
66%
0.4%
$372 Vol.
5%
0.5%+
$759 Vol.
<1%
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent hotter-than-expected August 2026 CPI data, with core CPI rising 0.3% month-over-month against a 0.2% consensus, has elevated trader expectations for the corresponding Core PCE print due later this month. Bank of America and Goldman Sachs nowcast August core PCE at 0.26–0.30% m/m, while TD Securities revised its estimate to 0.24% after firmer PPI components. July’s core PCE registered 0.2% m/m and held at 3.3% year-over-year, consistent with sticky services inflation. These developments anchor the 65.5% market-implied probability on a 0.3% August outcome, with the September 30 BEA release serving as the next key input for FOMC rate-path assessments amid elevated Treasury yields.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Volume
$14,287End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent hotter-than-expected August 2026 CPI data, with core CPI rising 0.3% month-over-month against a 0.2% consensus, has elevated trader expectations for the corresponding Core PCE print due later this month. Bank of America and Goldman Sachs nowcast August core PCE at 0.26–0.30% m/m, while TD Securities revised its estimate to 0.24% after firmer PPI components. July’s core PCE registered 0.2% m/m and held at 3.3% year-over-year, consistent with sticky services inflation. These developments anchor the 65.5% market-implied probability on a 0.3% August outcome, with the September 30 BEA release serving as the next key input for FOMC rate-path assessments amid elevated Treasury yields.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$14,287End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent hotter-than-expected August 2026 CPI data, with core CPI rising 0.3% month-over-month against a 0.2% consensus, has elevated trader expectations for the corresponding Core PCE print due later this month. Bank of America and Goldman Sachs nowcast August core PCE at 0.26–0.30% m/m, while TD Securities revised its estimate to 0.24% after firmer PPI components. July’s core PCE registered 0.2% m/m and held at 3.3% year-over-year, consistent with sticky services inflation. These developments anchor the 65.5% market-implied probability on a 0.3% August outcome, with the September 30 BEA release serving as the next key input for FOMC rate-path assessments amid elevated Treasury yields.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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