Recent monthly Japan core CPI readings, including the 1.7% YoY August 2026 national figure and 1.9% core-core measure, have anchored trader sentiment toward the ≤1.9% outcome for the full-year 2026 average at 71% implied probability. Government energy subsidies and favorable base effects have offset pass-through from Middle East-linked oil prices, keeping inflation below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for eight consecutive months while underlying demand pressures remain contained. The BoJ’s recent 25 basis point rate hike to 1.25% and gradual normalization path reinforce expectations of subdued wage-price dynamics through year-end, outweighing later fiscal 2026 projections for acceleration above target.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated≤1.9% 71.0%
2.0-2.4% 18%
2.5-2.9% 6.9%
3.5-3.9% 1.2%
$45,980 Vol.
$45,980 Vol.
Jan 22, 2027
≤1.9%
71%
2.0-2.4%
18%
2.5-2.9%
7%
3.0-3.4%
<1%
3.5-3.9%
1%
4.0%+
1%
≤1.9% 71.0%
2.0-2.4% 18%
2.5-2.9% 6.9%
3.5-3.9% 1.2%
$45,980 Vol.
$45,980 Vol.
Jan 22, 2027
≤1.9%
$22,954 Vol.
71%
2.0-2.4%
$12,212 Vol.
18%
2.5-2.9%
$5,934 Vol.
7%
3.0-3.4%
$1,884 Vol.
<1%
3.5-3.9%
$1,324 Vol.
1%
4.0%+
$1,675 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent monthly Japan core CPI readings, including the 1.7% YoY August 2026 national figure and 1.9% core-core measure, have anchored trader sentiment toward the ≤1.9% outcome for the full-year 2026 average at 71% implied probability. Government energy subsidies and favorable base effects have offset pass-through from Middle East-linked oil prices, keeping inflation below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for eight consecutive months while underlying demand pressures remain contained. The BoJ’s recent 25 basis point rate hike to 1.25% and gradual normalization path reinforce expectations of subdued wage-price dynamics through year-end, outweighing later fiscal 2026 projections for acceleration above target.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Market Opened: Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Volume
$45,980End Date
Jan 22, 2027Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent monthly Japan core CPI readings, including the 1.7% YoY August 2026 national figure and 1.9% core-core measure, have anchored trader sentiment toward the ≤1.9% outcome for the full-year 2026 average at 71% implied probability. Government energy subsidies and favorable base effects have offset pass-through from Middle East-linked oil prices, keeping inflation below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for eight consecutive months while underlying demand pressures remain contained. The BoJ’s recent 25 basis point rate hike to 1.25% and gradual normalization path reinforce expectations of subdued wage-price dynamics through year-end, outweighing later fiscal 2026 projections for acceleration above target.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$45,980End Date
Jan 22, 2027Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly Japan core CPI readings, including the 1.7% YoY August 2026 national figure and 1.9% core-core measure, have anchored trader sentiment toward the ≤1.9% outcome for the full-year 2026 average at 71% implied probability. Government energy subsidies and favorable base effects have offset pass-through from Middle East-linked oil prices, keeping inflation below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for eight consecutive months while underlying demand pressures remain contained. The BoJ’s recent 25 basis point rate hike to 1.25% and gradual normalization path reinforce expectations of subdued wage-price dynamics through year-end, outweighing later fiscal 2026 projections for acceleration above target.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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