Recent July 2026 core CPI at 2.5% year-over-year, down from 2.6% in June, combined with Cleveland Fed nowcasts near 2.38% and analyst forecasts centering on 2.3–2.4% for August, has concentrated Polymarket-implied odds on those two outcomes. Traders are pricing modest further cooling driven by softening core goods prices and contained shelter contributions, even as services inflation shows persistence. The tight distribution around 2.3% and 2.4% reflects uncertainty over monthly volatility in the September 11 release, while steady labor-market readings and above-target inflation keep monetary policy expectations in focus ahead of the mid-September FOMC meeting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2.4% 48%
2.3% 33%
2.5% 13%
2.2% 4.5%
$25,884 Vol.
$25,884 Vol.
Sep 10, 2026
≤2.0%
2%
2.1%
2%
2.2%
5%
2.3%
33%
2.4%
48%
2.5%
13%
2.6%
3%
2.7%
2%
2.8%
1%
≥2.9%
1%
2.4% 48%
2.3% 33%
2.5% 13%
2.2% 4.5%
$25,884 Vol.
$25,884 Vol.
Sep 10, 2026
≤2.0%
$644 Vol.
2%
2.1%
$685 Vol.
2%
2.2%
$865 Vol.
5%
2.3%
$2,533 Vol.
33%
2.4%
$13,217 Vol.
48%
2.5%
$3,674 Vol.
13%
2.6%
$1,168 Vol.
3%
2.7%
$1,291 Vol.
2%
2.8%
$1,130 Vol.
1%
≥2.9%
$678 Vol.
1%
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July 2026 core CPI at 2.5% year-over-year, down from 2.6% in June, combined with Cleveland Fed nowcasts near 2.38% and analyst forecasts centering on 2.3–2.4% for August, has concentrated Polymarket-implied odds on those two outcomes. Traders are pricing modest further cooling driven by softening core goods prices and contained shelter contributions, even as services inflation shows persistence. The tight distribution around 2.3% and 2.4% reflects uncertainty over monthly volatility in the September 11 release, while steady labor-market readings and above-target inflation keep monetary policy expectations in focus ahead of the mid-September FOMC meeting.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM ET
Volume
$25,884End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July 2026 core CPI at 2.5% year-over-year, down from 2.6% in June, combined with Cleveland Fed nowcasts near 2.38% and analyst forecasts centering on 2.3–2.4% for August, has concentrated Polymarket-implied odds on those two outcomes. Traders are pricing modest further cooling driven by softening core goods prices and contained shelter contributions, even as services inflation shows persistence. The tight distribution around 2.3% and 2.4% reflects uncertainty over monthly volatility in the September 11 release, while steady labor-market readings and above-target inflation keep monetary policy expectations in focus ahead of the mid-September FOMC meeting.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$25,884End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July 2026 core CPI at 2.5% year-over-year, down from 2.6% in June, combined with Cleveland Fed nowcasts near 2.38% and analyst forecasts centering on 2.3–2.4% for August, has concentrated Polymarket-implied odds on those two outcomes. Traders are pricing modest further cooling driven by softening core goods prices and contained shelter contributions, even as services inflation shows persistence. The tight distribution around 2.3% and 2.4% reflects uncertainty over monthly volatility in the September 11 release, while steady labor-market readings and above-target inflation keep monetary policy expectations in focus ahead of the mid-September FOMC meeting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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