Recent August 2026 data showed Japan's core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) holding at 1.9% year-over-year, below the Bank of Japan's 2% target for the fifth straight month amid energy subsidies and softening food price gains. This reading aligns with trader consensus pricing the 2.0-2.4% band for 2026 at 76.5% implied probability, reflecting expectations that yen depreciation, sustained wage growth near 3.5%, and AI-driven semiconductor demand will lift underlying inflation toward the BOJ's projected path of clearly above 2% in the second half of fiscal 2026 before moderating. Core CPI excluding fresh food eased to 1.7%, underscoring how temporary factors have capped near-term prints while forward-looking indicators like producer prices signal building cost pressures. Market-implied odds for outcomes below 2.0% or above 2.5% remain low, consistent with the central bank's baseline scenario of gradual convergence to target amid ongoing monetary policy normalization.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2.0-2.4% 78%
≤1.9% 23%
2.5-2.9% <1%
4.0%+ <1%
$61,116 Vol.
$61,116 Vol.
Feb 12, 2027
≤1.9%
23%
2.0-2.4%
78%
2.5-2.9%
1%
3.0-3.4%
<1%
3.5-3.9%
<1%
4.0%+
1%
2.0-2.4% 78%
≤1.9% 23%
2.5-2.9% <1%
4.0%+ <1%
$61,116 Vol.
$61,116 Vol.
Feb 12, 2027
≤1.9%
$17,276 Vol.
23%
2.0-2.4%
$26,450 Vol.
78%
2.5-2.9%
$11,369 Vol.
1%
3.0-3.4%
$2,464 Vol.
<1%
3.5-3.9%
$1,485 Vol.
<1%
4.0%+
$2,072 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent August 2026 data showed Japan's core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) holding at 1.9% year-over-year, below the Bank of Japan's 2% target for the fifth straight month amid energy subsidies and softening food price gains. This reading aligns with trader consensus pricing the 2.0-2.4% band for 2026 at 76.5% implied probability, reflecting expectations that yen depreciation, sustained wage growth near 3.5%, and AI-driven semiconductor demand will lift underlying inflation toward the BOJ's projected path of clearly above 2% in the second half of fiscal 2026 before moderating. Core CPI excluding fresh food eased to 1.7%, underscoring how temporary factors have capped near-term prints while forward-looking indicators like producer prices signal building cost pressures. Market-implied odds for outcomes below 2.0% or above 2.5% remain low, consistent with the central bank's baseline scenario of gradual convergence to target amid ongoing monetary policy normalization.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Market Opened: Jun 17, 2026, 7:26 PM ET
Volume
$61,116End Date
Feb 12, 2027Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent August 2026 data showed Japan's core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) holding at 1.9% year-over-year, below the Bank of Japan's 2% target for the fifth straight month amid energy subsidies and softening food price gains. This reading aligns with trader consensus pricing the 2.0-2.4% band for 2026 at 76.5% implied probability, reflecting expectations that yen depreciation, sustained wage growth near 3.5%, and AI-driven semiconductor demand will lift underlying inflation toward the BOJ's projected path of clearly above 2% in the second half of fiscal 2026 before moderating. Core CPI excluding fresh food eased to 1.7%, underscoring how temporary factors have capped near-term prints while forward-looking indicators like producer prices signal building cost pressures. Market-implied odds for outcomes below 2.0% or above 2.5% remain low, consistent with the central bank's baseline scenario of gradual convergence to target amid ongoing monetary policy normalization.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$61,116End Date
Feb 12, 2027Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent August 2026 data showed Japan's core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) holding at 1.9% year-over-year, below the Bank of Japan's 2% target for the fifth straight month amid energy subsidies and softening food price gains. This reading aligns with trader consensus pricing the 2.0-2.4% band for 2026 at 76.5% implied probability, reflecting expectations that yen depreciation, sustained wage growth near 3.5%, and AI-driven semiconductor demand will lift underlying inflation toward the BOJ's projected path of clearly above 2% in the second half of fiscal 2026 before moderating. Core CPI excluding fresh food eased to 1.7%, underscoring how temporary factors have capped near-term prints while forward-looking indicators like producer prices signal building cost pressures. Market-implied odds for outcomes below 2.0% or above 2.5% remain low, consistent with the central bank's baseline scenario of gradual convergence to target amid ongoing monetary policy normalization.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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