Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and ACM Neto (União Brasil) remain locked in a technical tie for the Bahia governorship, with recent Real Time Big Data polling from early September showing them at 45% and 44% respectively in first-round scenarios and similarly close in runoff simulations. The incumbent benefits from statewide PT organizational strength and name recognition built during his current term, while the former Salvador mayor draws concentrated support in the capital and among voters aligned with the national opposition bloc. High rejection ratings for both candidates have prevented either from pulling ahead decisively, and minor contenders register negligible shares. The October 4 first-round vote, possible October 25 runoff, and final weeks of mobilization in interior municipalities and swing areas could still shift the balance if turnout patterns or late developments favor one side.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJerônimo Rodrigues 53%
ACM Neto 48%
João Roma <1%
Kleber Rosa <1%
$139,180 Vol.
$139,180 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
53%
ACM Neto
48%
João Roma
<1%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 53%
ACM Neto 48%
João Roma <1%
Kleber Rosa <1%
$139,180 Vol.
$139,180 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$44,906 Vol.
53%
ACM Neto
$52,150 Vol.
48%
João Roma
$5,186 Vol.
<1%
Kleber Rosa
$13,880 Vol.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$5,325 Vol.
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
$11,986 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa
$5,747 Vol.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and ACM Neto (União Brasil) remain locked in a technical tie for the Bahia governorship, with recent Real Time Big Data polling from early September showing them at 45% and 44% respectively in first-round scenarios and similarly close in runoff simulations. The incumbent benefits from statewide PT organizational strength and name recognition built during his current term, while the former Salvador mayor draws concentrated support in the capital and among voters aligned with the national opposition bloc. High rejection ratings for both candidates have prevented either from pulling ahead decisively, and minor contenders register negligible shares. The October 4 first-round vote, possible October 25 runoff, and final weeks of mobilization in interior municipalities and swing areas could still shift the balance if turnout patterns or late developments favor one side.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volume
$139,180End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and ACM Neto (União Brasil) remain locked in a technical tie for the Bahia governorship, with recent Real Time Big Data polling from early September showing them at 45% and 44% respectively in first-round scenarios and similarly close in runoff simulations. The incumbent benefits from statewide PT organizational strength and name recognition built during his current term, while the former Salvador mayor draws concentrated support in the capital and among voters aligned with the national opposition bloc. High rejection ratings for both candidates have prevented either from pulling ahead decisively, and minor contenders register negligible shares. The October 4 first-round vote, possible October 25 runoff, and final weeks of mobilization in interior municipalities and swing areas could still shift the balance if turnout patterns or late developments favor one side.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$139,180End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and ACM Neto (União Brasil) remain locked in a technical tie for the Bahia governorship, with recent Real Time Big Data polling from early September showing them at 45% and 44% respectively in first-round scenarios and similarly close in runoff simulations. The incumbent benefits from statewide PT organizational strength and name recognition built during his current term, while the former Salvador mayor draws concentrated support in the capital and among voters aligned with the national opposition bloc. High rejection ratings for both candidates have prevented either from pulling ahead decisively, and minor contenders register negligible shares. The October 4 first-round vote, possible October 25 runoff, and final weeks of mobilization in interior municipalities and swing areas could still shift the balance if turnout patterns or late developments favor one side.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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