Recent forecasts from the Federal Reserve, IMF, and private economists cluster around 2.0–2.2% real GDP growth for 2026 on a Q4/Q4 or annual-average basis, reflecting solid but moderating expansion. Second-quarter growth printed at a 1.5% annualized rate, yet upward revisions to consumer spending and robust nonresidential fixed investment—particularly AI-driven capital expenditures—have bolstered underlying momentum and labor productivity. Elevated inflation, with headline PCE near 3.2–3.7%, and the prospect of steady or higher federal funds rates around 3.5–3.75% introduce downside risks to demand-sensitive sectors. The narrow split between the 2.0–2.5% and 1.5–2.0% brackets on Polymarket captures uncertainty over whether productivity gains can fully offset labor-market softening and policy restraint ahead of the September FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation releases.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоРост ВВП в 2026 году
Рост ВВП в 2026 году
2,0–2,5% 49%
1,5–2,0% 38.1%
>2,5% 8.8%
<0,5% 3.2%
$60,615 Объем
$60,615 Объем
28 янв. 2027 г.
<0,5%
3%
0,5–1,0%
1%
1,0–1,5%
3%
1,5–2,0%
27%
2,0–2,5%
49%
>2,5%
9%
2,0–2,5% 49%
1,5–2,0% 38.1%
>2,5% 8.8%
<0,5% 3.2%
$60,615 Объем
$60,615 Объем
28 янв. 2027 г.
<0,5%
$7,659 Объем
3%
0,5–1,0%
$17,367 Объем
1%
1,0–1,5%
$3,951 Объем
3%
1,5–2,0%
$7,588 Объем
27%
2,0–2,5%
$7,922 Объем
49%
>2,5%
$16,129 Объем
9%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from the Federal Reserve, IMF, and private economists cluster around 2.0–2.2% real GDP growth for 2026 on a Q4/Q4 or annual-average basis, reflecting solid but moderating expansion. Second-quarter growth printed at a 1.5% annualized rate, yet upward revisions to consumer spending and robust nonresidential fixed investment—particularly AI-driven capital expenditures—have bolstered underlying momentum and labor productivity. Elevated inflation, with headline PCE near 3.2–3.7%, and the prospect of steady or higher federal funds rates around 3.5–3.75% introduce downside risks to demand-sensitive sectors. The narrow split between the 2.0–2.5% and 1.5–2.0% brackets on Polymarket captures uncertainty over whether productivity gains can fully offset labor-market softening and policy restraint ahead of the September FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation releases.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Объем
$60,615Дата окончания
29 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from the Federal Reserve, IMF, and private economists cluster around 2.0–2.2% real GDP growth for 2026 on a Q4/Q4 or annual-average basis, reflecting solid but moderating expansion. Second-quarter growth printed at a 1.5% annualized rate, yet upward revisions to consumer spending and robust nonresidential fixed investment—particularly AI-driven capital expenditures—have bolstered underlying momentum and labor productivity. Elevated inflation, with headline PCE near 3.2–3.7%, and the prospect of steady or higher federal funds rates around 3.5–3.75% introduce downside risks to demand-sensitive sectors. The narrow split between the 2.0–2.5% and 1.5–2.0% brackets on Polymarket captures uncertainty over whether productivity gains can fully offset labor-market softening and policy restraint ahead of the September FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation releases.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$60,615Дата окончания
29 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Recent forecasts from the Federal Reserve, IMF, and private economists cluster around 2.0–2.2% real GDP growth for 2026 on a Q4/Q4 or annual-average basis, reflecting solid but moderating expansion. Second-quarter growth printed at a 1.5% annualized rate, yet upward revisions to consumer spending and robust nonresidential fixed investment—particularly AI-driven capital expenditures—have bolstered underlying momentum and labor productivity. Elevated inflation, with headline PCE near 3.2–3.7%, and the prospect of steady or higher federal funds rates around 3.5–3.75% introduce downside risks to demand-sensitive sectors. The narrow split between the 2.0–2.5% and 1.5–2.0% brackets on Polymarket captures uncertainty over whether productivity gains can fully offset labor-market softening and policy restraint ahead of the September FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation releases.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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